psuhoffman

Case in point... the odds of a snowy month seem to be right around 25% whether the TNH is positive or negative. Lol.

Physics dictates it has a cause. Just because we don’t understand the cause doesn’t make it random. The cause might be something we lack the ability to measure or even comprehend but it has a cause.

I’m in the prelim stages of reading up but so far it seems the TNH causes the pacific warm blob. Reading a study about that. It also correlated to an Atlantic cold pool. But what I’m not seeing so far is the causation of the TNH and it’s relationship to other pattern drivers like the mjo and soi. I guess what I mean by causation...is the TNH seems to be measured of the jet pattern. But what I’m looking for are things that cause the longwave patterns. Enso and other sst anomalies, for example, aren’t patterns. They are things that cause patterns. The mjo is related to a pattern but it’s just a measure of convection that is known to affect the longwave patterns. Solar is another example although our ability to understand and use that one is more limited. Another issue is simply saying that is our snow problem would be a leap since some of our snowiest months have been a +TNH and some were analogs. February 2015 and 2003 were +TNH. All 3 winter months of 2013/14. February 2007. February 2006. January 1996. All +TNH. Also since 2006 we have had 26 + months and only 12 - ones. It’s only calculated Dec to February. So it’s predominantly positive. Also in that time by my estimate we have had 10 legit snowy months in the region. 7 were during a +TNH and 3 a -TNH. Im obviously not an expert on this. I’ve never used it much but that’s because when I did look into it once I found it of little “predictive” value and a weak correlation to snow here. The quick look at the data seems to still suggest that But there is no denying we are in a +TNH pattern and at this time it’s a bad one. But I don’t understand the correlation to causation well enough to make that useful and I see no pattern in the data to suggest a + vs - TNH favors snow here.

We are obviously in a +TNH pattern BUT I never understood it to be a pattern causation. I thought it was just like the pna, epo, wpo, NAO.... a measure of the pattern. Not something that caused the pattern like the mjo, enso, soi, solar, qbo, amp, pdo. Some of those matter more than others but those are all key things that CAUSE patterns like the epo, pna, and NAO. Yea a favorable epo or pna gives us a snow chance but to predict that you need to understand what causes a favorable epo or pna ridge. I always thought of the TNH as an effect not a cause. I’m looking for the cause behind the +TNH because a -soi and mjo phases 8-2 usually correlate with a -TNH pattern. Hope I’m making sense.

I can respectfully disagree with conservatives and have plenty of conservative friends. But I have no time or patience for bigots.

Someone ran for county commissioner with the slogan “keep Carroll Carroll” last year.

Lol. I can beat that. Waiting in line one year the couple behind me asked for my voter guide info on the school board candidates...then said “oh god no they are endorsed by the teachers association”. I grabbed the flyer back and said I’m a teacher. They looked really uncomfortable. Lest people get the wrong idea by far most people up here are not like that. It’s just one moron on my street out of the 6 families. It was a few morons with the flag thing. But for some reason the idiots are a lot more open and in your face about it here than when I lived in NJ and VA. There were racists and idiots there too but they tried to hide it. You didn’t hear them yelling slurs in Walmart or using the n word for no reason at the gas station or come up to you for no reason and made racist jokes or random comments. It’s a weird phenomenon.

One of my neighbors has a confederate encampment in his yard and walks around wearing a confederate battle hat and a shirt that says Robert E Lee...if you aren’t with us you’re against us. Lol. If he can do that I should be able to wear any shirt I want. My other “sane” neighbor was messing with him recently. He isn’t actually moving but he told him he was and that he was showing the property to prospective buyers that evening knowing it would drive him crazy when he saw they were African American. Everyone played along. Even walked them around the property pointing at stuff to make it seem they were scouting it out.

Lol this is the least antagonistic shirt I have. Was a gift from someone. When I’m in the mood to mix it up with the locals I’ll throw on one of my more inflammatory ones and just go out around town. I used to try to lay low and not get into it...then between some of the abhorrent outright blatant racist things people have said to me...and the death threats I got after I started a protest campaign that ended up in the paper and forced Manchester stop displaying the confederate flag at our official fire dept fair...I decided F it I’m going the other way and throwing it in their faces!!!

I know...but I’m old enough to remember when we were in their place and I can sympathize.

She is very concerned about the EPS

Warm could be better than cold if it doesn’t snow. Slush is better than Ice to ski on.

As an eagles fan it’s sad to see what Danny boy has done to a once great proud franchise.

@C.A.P.E. something else is causing the SE ridge. Look at this... the pacific is right. That ridge isn’t being pumped by the pac if anything the pac is trying to fight it. Trough east of Hawaii. The north pac ridge has pushed east into a true poleward -epo ridge. Pna is neutral but ridging is trying to press into the west. -NAO. -AO. Ridge bridge And the se ridge remains!!!! And it’s not just a temporary thing. It’s only somewhat muted by all that then bounces right back! there is another problem somewhere causing that ridge. I have no idea what it is. But the issue is if there is another cause and it’s a dominant influence expecting the mjo to help might not work. Looks like even on runs where the pattern gets right in EVERY other way that ridge fights and wins.

There is a difference between expecting something and rooting for it. Redskins fans don’t expect them to win but are still disappointed when they don’t.

Get that on eps AND inside 240 hours and I’ll bite. Odd thing is the mjo and soi have been dominant players and both argue for that look. But the guidance has mostly not budged in believable time leads. JB yapping about the Tropical/Northern hemisphere positive phase but from the little I know about that I’ve always considered it more of a pattern effect not a cause. Maybe I’m wrong. Or maybe he is BSing again. I’ll look into it.

Soi -24 mjo keeps correcting more and more into 8/1. Yet the pattern is showing absolutely no response. Bob called this one! Miss ya @Bob Chill

That looks like crap compared to 24 hours ago lol. And we are clearly stuck in the middle there.

He already busted. He cancelled winter for the whole east and even said northeast and New England!!! Some places already had a bad snow and ice storm. And this next week will be snow somewhere, it’s not changing to rain all the way to Canada. I took issue with his extreme exaggerations. It might fail for us but he said entire northeast was not getting any winter weather and even said including New England. He goes over the top sometimes when he is upset and then tries to spin his way out of it. He made a ridiculous forecast and now is defending it when only a small bit of the less extreme part verifies.

Ukmet takes the initial waa surge west of us. It doesn’t get heavy precip into the area until Wednesday evening. It puts down a ton Wednesday night but by then it’s ice or rain. I’m sure those idiot maps that count ice as snow will say we get 20”.

This week would have had a better chance had the storm bombed this weekend and dumped a true cold airmass south into the east. That look 5+ days ago had real potential with wiggle room and multiple ways to score. Once that failed and the boundary wasn’t going to be that far south of this the potential took a significant hit imo.

It’s mostly a “retirement” plan. There are some more affordable places near ski towns. Outside steamboat or in Leadville which is close to Vail and Copper. Once I get my state pension I can work part time at some resort and be fine.

Yes. That’s been the MO up here all winter since the flip in early January. I hate to sound spoiled and ungrateful but it snows up here pretty much every winter. Even in total crap years. Getting less than ~20” is a once every 20 years type fail and even in those years usually it’s at least ~10”. What I love about up here is that most years we can count on at least one coastal crush 8”+ snowstorm. This year has been non stop small events or snow to ice to rain. I’d rather not lose any more trees and at this point if I’m not going to get that one dynamic snow event I’d rather just move on to next year. But that’s just me and I’ll still track and keep that crap out of the main thread.

I agree this has more potential in DC.

That’s why someday I’m moving somewhere that every winter is like that. Colorado has the added bonus of great outdoor activities, skiing, hiking, rafting, fishing etc. I would miss the HECS events. Nothing is like those. But in another 15 years or so I think I’ll be ready to hang that up and just be somewhere that has snow 90% of the time from Thanksgiving to Easter and not worry about any one storm anymore. Might even root for the warm sunny days then lol.