Wxbear25

A snowstorm is a strong word for what it shows, methinks, but yes it now does show snow now

People really were spoiled rotten by yesterday’s early runs lol We’re not some quantum leap from something bigger, y’all And with how much energy/noise there is involved in this system, I sincerely doubt we’ve yet to see the final solution, good, bad, or inbetween

Yup. Get that out of the way and our ULL has space to breath and pump heights which slows the whole thing down that feature being there keeps the flow too fast and helps to drag everything east

Need that stupid feature over SE Canada to get out of dodge so heights can rise ahead of the ULL, or else it will be squashed like the euro shows

Unfortunately if you’re going to talk about budget cuts to NOAA and other scientific entities, it’s impossible to not talk about those perpetrating it But I digress, 12z runs thus far have pretty much shown improvement across the board aloft so far. Here’s hoping the Euro follows suit

Quite literally. We’re in like Notre Dame cathedral here, floor to ceiling is massive

I mean, yeah, it could change and the most likely scenario isn’t a massive HECS… but you’re telling me the ceiling, which is the top should everything fall exactly right, is 6-10”? I don’t take issue with your experience or forecasting chops, just the notion of that low a ceiling this far out given the look also, if anything, I’d be more worried about it “blowing its load”, so to speak, south of us than hitting SNE more, unless you’re specifically referring to like the Cape as opposed to the region at large

You are wildly selling this setup short Will it happen? Not sure. But the ceiling here is tremendous

Listen, it’s 4 days out and the devil is always in the detail But If you showed me the ICON and GFS’s 500mb looks and said “would you take this” look 4-5 days out?” I would take it every time Alot to like here

Verbatim, yes. Right now we shouldn’t care about verbatim The upper levels improved significantly and were 4 days out. If this were happening tomorrow, sure, we could just dismiss the threat. But it aint I take that 500mb chart and roll the dice any day of the week, it’s not far off AT ALL

‘Tis Look at how much better heights are backed ahead of the ULL over the EC We can work with that look. The previous runs required major surgery to fix, this one more like an outpatient procedure Still work, but not as bad

The upper levels drive the lower levels, not the other way around. The 6z and, to a lesser extent 00z, were further off than the 12z to being a much bigger deal up here heights backed significantly more ahead of the system. You tilt that initial s/w ahead of the ULL more meridionally, all the Sudden you end up cutting it off 50-100 miles north and have a different story We can work with something similar to what the 12z ICON shows, the previous few runs, not so much

Take a look at the 500 charts, this run verbatim doesn’t get us there, but the changes were marked and in the right direction overall

For what little it’s worth, a lot of SIGNIFICANTLY encouraging changes at the 500mb level on the 12z ICON Did we give up when the Germans bombed Cold Spring Harbor?

Far from over, but pretty much everything since the 12z Euro came out has trended less favorably There are still a metric ton of features involved in this setup though, so to think we've seen the final solution is folly. Does that mean it works out? No, but its far from throw in the towel territory yet

TECHNICALLY the jackpot would be NJ… but yeah, I know what you mean lol

northern stream looks a bit flatter than 18z so far on the NAM, cant imagine that bodes well for snow up here

It depends on what you decide a "snowstorm" is. Will it be the early 2000s storms? No, but it could very well be better than 95% of what we've gotten the past several years

yeah, its not like it was the Euro with support of other models or anything... wild

They need snow

Or you need the northern stream oriented a little further south and more pronounced Verbatim, the ICON, for what little it’s worth, isn’t THAT far off from a bigger event

Icon a hair better As much as it’s a longshot, it really wouldn’t take THAT much to get that northern stream S/W more N/S oriented and let it interact with the southern one more Worth watching, not holding my breath

Won’t matter if the mid-levels are toasty we really need that northern stream involvement to help inject some cold air into the equation, or else you get what the 6z Euro shows which is a pounding rainstorm with a very, very small area of snow on the northernmost fringe

Tapatalk is literally the worst app ever invented As I was saying, get that massive cutoff to slide into the 50/50 position with that energy ejecting out of the southwest and it would make me very happy