Wxbear25

funny you say that, because I’m currently witnessing said wall of snow some of the heaviest I have ever seen

A literal wall of snow bearing down on you and this is your takeaway lol

That’s effing wild

My dude, look at the radar off the coast. Not to mention we still have like 12 hours of snow to go

Ironically about the most snow the Euro has shown this whole time and the event is like half over what an epically bad performance by it in terms of ongoings now, those bands coming towards LI look sexy AF

Little bit of an annoying relative snow/hole around the Nassau/Suffolk border attm. Looking forward to tonight’s action to get in here

As winds pickup I'd imagine they decrease somewhat, but still at that point it would still pile up since its falling on a blanket of snow already

overnight, its like 2 AM-6 AM give or take, DST always throws me through a loop

Radar south of LI looks paltry now, but watch later as this initial band lifts north and weakens, should see returns bubbling and expanding again Modeling has pretty consistently been having these batches of heavier precip followed by brief lulls for a while now

Specifically on the campus of Brookhaven National Laboratory. Interned there for two summers back in the day Great people there

Speak of the devil lol

Im surprised there arent more MD's out, to be honest I'd imagine the're going to be covering at least coastal locales in the near future

I was worried/half expected you to say "Might have to leave my wife and baby for this storm"

Is it possible they had some snow leftover OTG from before? In fairness, they didnt say 7 inches accumulated today

Cars, grass starting to see accumulations in Bay Shore, snowing between light and moderate right now I’d say

One advantage of a further south/east track is any potential dry-slot is shunted the same direction

It’s one thing to be negative, it’s another to be a blatant liar

Definiitely a noticeable tick SE, but not nearly enough to be problematic Realistically, the tracks arent THAT far off between the models, the GFS is just much more efficient at hurling that convection into the NW quadrant of the low

Not sure it makes much sense for the Euro to bulldoze the ULL NE instead of NNE between hr 42-48 given the overall orientation of the trough being more negative and the resultant backed heights north/northeast of the ULL. Just looking at how the vorticity is oriented around the ULL also makes me think its "momentum" would continue in a more northward direction relative to what its showing. Im wondering is a bit of convective feedback occurring east of the Euro, on the 12z run you can see the lower heights reaching a bit eastward, so I guess thats where its getting pulled a bit eastward relative to where I would think it was going

Its not so much southeast as the members are congealing around a more cohesive mean. You lost some of the crazier members, and there werent a ton of SE members to lose, so it results in a look thats slightly SE

East?

UKMET coming in more amped for sure Gotta wonder why all of the foreign global models except the JMA seemed to struggle with this one... very odd

Any particular reasoning for your thinking? I'm personally more worried about areas north jackpotting relative to LI than west. Theres only so far this thing can go west given the location and orientation of the upper level features

A few things and about temps with this storm 1) An occluding low is becoming vertically stacked, so you need to worry less about the surface low having a good track, but getting skunked by an 850mb low 150 miles west of you flooding the region with warm air 2) The precipitation will be very, very heavy so it will naturally cool the column 3) The deeper the low, the more the pressure gradient force overwhelms the coriolis force resulting in a more direct high->Low wind direction. In other words, winds will be more northerly than one would expect from a low in that position 4) The low eventually will lose northward momentum and pinwheel eastward, so whatever push of warm air there may be (which there wont really) will be gone The big thing I'd be worried about if this thing keeps coming north is a big-ol wedge of dry air just being hurled northward into somewhere over eastern LI/southern New England