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Wxbear25

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Everything posted by Wxbear25

  1. Wxbear25
    You say that as if the synoptic setup hasn’t changed significantly in 4 days. hindsight is 20/20, but at the time it looked significantly colder
  2. Wxbear25
    Yeah, heights noticeably lower ahead of the trough and the Canadian side of things is “pressing” more than digging behind the s/w thus far on the ICON Problem is the ICON develops a stronger 850 low and that’s where the warm tongue is on that model
  3. Wxbear25
    Hell, the GFS is almost too suppressed haha The 12z GFS was a perfect compromise between the ICON and like the 18z GFS, where that piece in Canada caught our southern energy, but not enough to basically help tilt it and drive it inland in the 18z case, the northern piece instead consolidates over Ontario, increasing confluence and forcing a much earlier transition to the coast. the problem is, that confluence also shreds the s/w much faster so the WAA is much less pronounced
  4. Wxbear25
    18z GFS definitely not going to be an ICON redux, much less interaction between the Canadian part of the trough and the southern part
  5. Wxbear25
    Relative to its 12z run, it was noticeably southwest The biggest change was how it handled the energy in Canada. The whole orientation of the trough north of the border changed between the 12 and 18z run ultimately, it’s that piece, more so than the southern stream itself, which will dictate how far north this comes
  6. Wxbear25
    Yeah… for Long Island and points south, the best hope we have is that the phase is messy and the wave ejecting eastward is weaker. Runs like this are thump to sleet, verbatim
  7. Wxbear25
    Icon wants to send the S/W in the Southwest on a vacation in Cabo
  8. Wxbear25
    not that it matters much, but the 18z NAM out to 54 looks like it would end up being less conducive to an earlier phase less interaction between our southern energy and the stuff diving out of Saskatchewan, noticeably lower heights out east as the ULL over SE Canada is a little later to depart
  9. Wxbear25
    For those super amped solutions you really need that northern energy to pinch off. Slows everything down, allows heights to recover and acts as a fulcrum for the shortwave to rotate around things like the GFS show it being still entrained in the long wave trough and actually pressing down on heights over SE Canada resulting in a more sheared system that transfers faster For my neck of the woods, I’m personally pulling for the GFS, but I want everyone to win
  10. Wxbear25
    Ukie is definitely a little less amped than its 00z counterpart. Stronger confluence north, slightly lower heights east. havent looked at the surface the end is definitely less amped soundings look like pure snow, even on LI
  11. Wxbear25
    It most certainly does even though it leaves behind a good chunk of energy diving from the northern stream on the backend of our energy in the SW
  12. Wxbear25
    Yeah. I’m on browser now. I didn’t realize Tapatalk was so bad, but that’s what I’ve been using to browse so I figured I’d use it to post too Anyway, as I was trying to say before emoji-pocalypse… 5-10 inches is going to be low-end for most people outside of the far fringe areas you don’t need a crawling system when you have hellacious isentropic lift dropping fluff on hard-frozen ground
  13. Wxbear25
    I have no idea what’s happening and why it’s adding random “emoji” things Tapatalk might be the worst app ive ever used lmao
  14. Wxbear25
    Idk what’s happening, but my posts are showing up weird when posting on Tapatalk…
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