Wxbear25

It just shows how much is going into this system, and how much difficulty the models are going to have handling it. Its not often virtually every model is showing a ~960 mb low pressure system somewhere off the coast of the mid-Atlantic U.S. This situation is so anomalous, I think its better to watch how the ensembles are trending at this point

CMC with a definitive step backwards, but at this point with how volatile these setups are ensembles are still more useful, even if the operational is more fun to watch come out

Subtle, but important changes to the heights and vorticity downstream from the ULL on the 00z vs the 18z... The whole thing just seems more tightly wound-up this run, as more of the southern stream energy kind of rotates around to the north of the ULL instead of a more broad circulation. Give me that depiction of the ULL at the latitude the Icon has it for $2,000, Ken

Through hr 93 on the GFS, I like the look of the 500mb charts a little more than 18z, but by the lack of activity im wondering if that transferred to improvement at the surface lol

To tell you the God's honest truth, I like the positioning of the ULL on the ICON alot more than the other models, if you want a major east coast snowstorm thats not a decaying shell by the time it reaches our latitude The issue is that it really focuses the cyclogenesis along the leading edge of that energy diving in from the west which clears its influence just enough to turn north too late... at 500mb it looked like it almost wanted to fujiwara it back to the west, but it escaped east at the last second. Push that ULL 75-100 miles west, I'd wager its a big-time hit. The evolution of how it played out seemed odd, though, so we'll see

Ok Franklin Delano Romanowski

The part of the wave ejecting out of the southwest is going to rotate around that ULL, wherever it sets up. When it rounds it, we want it to be oriented northward, because if it’s east or northeast it’s going to do what you’re seeing on a lot of the these runs where the ULL gets dragged eastward away from the coast too early that or we want the cutoff to form much further north so that the storm forms further north to begin with

It ain’t dead, not by a longshot. would I say the most likely scenario is a massive snowstorm? No. but I’m not sure how you can look at the upper-levels and say this is dead, especially considering it’s not like we need to fundamentally change the setup for it to work out

It’s far from on life support. More like an old, but still independent person who is crotchety and makes everyone else miserable but could still get visited by three weenies and turn their life around

Giving me PTSD flashbacks to things I’d forgotten long ago lol

Yes. In basic terms, think about what happens when you have diffluence aloft, it implies air is “spreading apart” by direction and potentially speed as well which results in mass divergence. Air then rises to fill that hole creating pressure falls below it, eventually resulting in the development/strengthening of low pressure at the surface again, very laymen’s terms and not quite as in-depth as an atmospheric dynamics class, but it works as an illustrative process

You don’t really want a super-deep low if you want widespread precipitation, because it implies two things 1) it’s likely occluding or close to it 2) the mid and upper-level features are so wrapped up that they basically wrap into itself as opposed to spread out ideally, you want the ULL to still be strengthening and the storm just getting caught as it gets close to your latitude so it stalls and then slowly degrades over you, as opposed to having an already occluded low decaying over you

Yup! Now overlay that with the surface low and you’ll see how well it correlates with the left-exit of that powerful streak

If you’re looking at the jet, probably want to look a little higher, like 300 or 250mb. The GEFS puts other low off the coast pretty much directly in a textbook spot, left exit of the jet where diffluence is maximized

Even the far OTS solutions are very, very close to something much bigger and potentially major in nature. The devil is in the details, and the fact that the feature that eventually turns into our ULL Is currently over Hudson Bay/far northwestern Quebec means that physical data collection is probably sparse, at best. a lot of time, and minor alterations like the orientation of vorticity rounding the ULL will make a huge difference here. Sit back and enjoy the ride. One way or another, it’s going to be a roller coaster the next few days

Yeah… anyone calling this dead needs to re-evaluate their completely re-evaluate their line of thinking lol. This is far from it

Get that southern energy a little slower and/or that northern energy a little faster and I think the ICON would have been a hit. Right now it runs that southern energy ahead of the ULL over the SE which takes over too far east

Much improved over 12z though

Be mindful of the fact that with the last storm the models completely underdid the western extent of the energy diving out of Canada for several days. How far west that gets when it cuts off will be a major player in how far west the coastal is

Deep, deep lows too... Kind where the flow turns more and more perpendicular to the pressure fields... I'd imagine theres a helluva NNE wind with those bad boys

Weren't you the one who was saying that the last storm wouldnt be widespread 2x digit snowfall totals without substantial secondary development?

A "swing and a miss" that gets 1" of QPF into Montauk and 0.5" into Queens Sounds more like a swing and a deep fly that you're not sure is going out yet or not

the biggest issue with the GFS when it comes to these things is unfortuantely the thing thats going to be problematic... handling mid-level thermals is not its strong suit

Front-end WAA, much like mid-level warmth, often overperforms. Definitely dont sleep on it

The surface is a reflection of the upper-levels, not vice-versa. The strength and positioning of that wave is what will dictate the primary/secondary strength and transition as well as the strength of mid-level features which is what is driving the warming, not the surface feature.