Wxbear25

Are you implying that science isn’t at the forefront of our current heads of Government? Who woulda thunk it Euro should be running soon. Godspeed, all

It depends on what you mean. In terms of “can the models get to looking like the GFS without fundamentally shifting the entire pattern”? Sure But the evolution of how the waves move, interact with one-another, their positioning are very much different Both solutions are physically possible to occur, but gun to my head I’d say the GFS is the least likely of the two by a considerable margin attm

Yup. Unfortunately it’s definitely not a “clean” setup here which results in mayhem for both us and the models Threading one needle is hard enough, but with this kinda system we need to thread like 3 or 4 for it to reach its max potential, which still is quite high not impossible, and threading a couple may result in a decent snowfall in its own right… but I wouldn’t bet on the GFS at this point

It improved initially with the shortwave being stronger over the Midwest and the feature over SE Canada being less involved BUT it got significantly worse in that it slowed down that energy diving into the northern plains, allowing that initial S/W to suppress heights Ultimately, we need less interaction in SE Canada and both of those Midwest shortwaves to phase and dance around eachother the GFS catches that initial wave and shoots it northward before incorporating it into the upper level feature other models, like the UK and euro shoot that out ahead which drives the low and baroclinic zone eastward away from the coast before our big ULL can interact with it

For reference, if you want to see what I’m talking about when I say this isn’t set in stone, take a gander at the 500mb vort chart between the 00z UKMET at hour 87 and 12z UKMET at hour 75 lol

Again, I think the GFS’s solution is not the most likely scenario by a longshot im not even against people saying they don’t believe it will happen, because despite the fact I WANT it to happen, i think it’s more likely to whiff than be a GFS-type super-bomb for our area When I say pessimism, I’m not referring to reasoned takes saying “it’s probably not going to happen”, it’s takes stating the definitive “it’s over” it’s the opposite of WG, and both extremes are obnoxious lol

No, it’s definitely not good as is. At the very least it’s far from the GFS, closer to the EURO

I think a whiff is far more likely than that occurring Unlike other changes that could happen, that would require a pretty significant change in the way things are situated

I don’t disagree with you. I think the GFS’s solution is wildly over-optimistic, but I also think the Euro’s depiction is underdoing it. In reality, I think it falls somewhere inbetween What I definitely do not think is that the threat fora decent, even good, snowfall is completely gone like some would have you believe

It’s not worse. Don’t worry about precipitation depiction verbatim, worry about what it looks like aloft where it did improve. we’re getting to the point where the surface and precip depiction will actually matter, but we’re not there just yet

I was a forecaster back in 2014 when the Euro completely crapped it’s pants on a coastal low within 24 hours granted, that was a fundamental issue with the input of the model since the SST’s were egregiously incorrect off the coast of the Carolinas, IIRC, but it’s not infallible I Left the weather game a long time ago, and have forgotten a good bit over time since I’ve focused on my new career, but I can tell you models don’t make the weather

Which is a completely different and reasonable take, since it implies there’s still potential Personally, I’m slightly more optimistic only because that 500 setup is just so explosive, at this point we’re talking more about orientation of the energy driving around the base of the trough than anything else and that timing will be variable from run to run. The GFS really turns it northward and tucks it in, closing it off way south. The ECMWF opens it up and shoots it eastward focusing the cyclone further east If I HAD to pick one, I’d lean towards a brush or near miss, but I’m fully cognizant of the fact that we’re dealing with something that isn’t so far off as to be insurmountable

Not believing the GFS’s solution is one thing Saying the threat is over/dead/gone is another

I’m not sure which is more insufferable, WeatherGeeks unbridled enthusiasm or several posters unbridled pessimism I guess at least I want WG’s head-canon to play out in real life lol

Is that a general statement, or a specific one pertaining to this run, I only have it out to 66 on Pivotal lol

yup, that ridge is able to bubble up between the upper level features, creating almost a mini Omega-block look Causes our ULL to slow down and tilt rather than continue to swing positively towards the coast nice move from the AIFS, now lets see if the OP sees the same thing

yup. Unlike the GFS and CMC, which are still "wide right", the UKMET lingers a piece of energy over SE Canada that suppresses heights along the coast and forces the system easy instead of NNE then NE

a "Strong System" is great and all, but the problem is once its super closed off like that, its tough to get latitude unless the tilt of the whole longwave it resides in is negative, even then odds are by the time it gets north its occluded Even so, its hard to look at that 500mb chart and not like where we are at the moment. We not far off from a historic storm We're also not far off from a complete whiff too, but ya know lol

at hr 84, heights a little lower ahead of it which is bad, but the ULL is strengthening much faster and the vorticity rotating around it looks to be in a good spot and orientation Dunno if it will get us to where we need to be, but that ULL strengthening over the Ohio River Valley could help pump heights up and slow the whole thing down more giving more time to turn up the coast as opposed to NE

It is better. Not quite there yet, but def an improvement aloft

Right, but there’s a difference between not being on board and declaring the threat dead and that it’s time to move on lol

Or, better yet, do what the GFS does and turn that more meridional. In that position it would close it off just south of LI

Again, we can work with that look at 500mb the big verbatim hits are fun and give that dopamine rush, but at this lead time all we need is for the pieces to be in play

Just as crazy as saying to move on from the storm at this timeframe lol

When I say the orientation of the wave, this is exactly what I mean. The s/w rounding the trough is much faster to round the axis turning it negative earlier the big risk you run with the GFS-type solution is it cutting off and meandering too far south which, seeing the frames later, is exactly what it does get that to occur 75-100 miles north and then you’re talking massive hit