Wxbear25

This is certainly one of the takes in history

That’s what I thought, I saw reference to it not being good and did a double take, thanks Ant

Is the 18z AI EURO even out yet?

The issue is how the models are handling that initial piece of energy to hit the coastline, which is the energy that spawns that “eastern low” The models have continuously trended towards this being more meridionally oriented, and thus more closely involved with the main s/w energy, with the GFS leading the way to this point in that regard There won’t be an “eastern low” or a “western low”, at least for any extended time there’s going to be one low, and the question is how well the big chunk of energy can rein in that front running stuff

You have it backwards. As a low begins to occlude, it unwinds and the bands spread away from the low

Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day

Even if this whole thing manages to miss us somehow, can we all agree on the fact that calling threats, especially incredibly complex ones such as this, over is stupid?

Whelp, I’m out for tonight, good to see the other models come more towards the GFS than vice-versa tonight. Hopefully that trend continues tomorrow with a little more latitude thrown the GFS’ way

If I had to guess I’d say the AIFS ensembles will be a little east as well, lower heights ahead of it, a little more lingering of that stupid SE Canada malarkey

If I wanted to get edged I could handle that myself

I remember reading that AFD. And then the Euro came on board lol

Ohhhh a lot of those have that sexy, sexy loop look

That and closer interaction between the two western waves is what we want

Who says it’s done trending? I think there is a northward limit, mind you, and the most likely event in the case of a hit is those coastal areas, but still I’d think anywhere from the coast to like Poughkeepsie is still in the game

I’ve been trying all day to tell people, it’s not like the pattern needed to fundamentally change to get us there Now, just because the 18z runs trended well doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, but still it just goes to show how relatively small adjustments early on can turn into major changes down the road

Not everyone has the tear duct capacity to bulltetproof their 12” snowpack because someone else got 24”

Lolololololol

Our western shortwaves are notably closer to phasing than 18z, though heights ahead of them are slightly slower ahead of them

Better ridging ahead of it shoots that vort northward instead of OTS that look gives me PTSD flashbacks to that storm from last month with all that convectively driven 500mb shenanigans that completely blew up the ULL

It’s hard to put trust into the GFS at this particular moment, especially considering what the current Admin has done to sciences in general. I do have to wonder as to its upkeep and data ingestion I trust the actual scientists, just not the lackeys and yes-men in charge of them

18z RGEM improved aloft, for what little that happens to be worth

You joke, but that look is far from terrible Hell, those s/w’s fully hook up at hour 72 instead of remaining separate and we cook this look doesn’t get us there, but this is far from unsalvageable

Exactly why I want it so bad lol We need the Canadian curling team to boop them closer together

Man, what I wouldn’t give to just get those two S/W’s to interact just a few hours earlier…

Yeah… if the AIFS and UKMET are right, that wave-spacing is just gonna kill any possibility the feature can turn the corner fast enough. really need that lead wave to slow down, the one from Canada to speed up or some combination thereof. Right now, they’re perfectly spaced so as to kill any chance of doing something for places like NYC, at least as depicted on those models