uofmiami

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, this cold bias gets fixed before next winter.

We knew this last winter while the FV3 was the parallel before it became operational. 

https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/

The government’s new weather forecast model has a slight problem: It predicts that outside temperatures will be a few degrees colder than what nature delivers. This “cold bias” means that local meteorologists are abandoning the National Weather Service in favor of forecasts produced by British and European weather agencies.

For the past few weeks, the National Weather Service has been forecasting snowfall that ends up disappearing, according to Doug Kammerer, chief meteorologist at WRC-TV in Washington, DC. “It’s just not performing well,” Kammerer says. “It has continued to show us getting big-time snowstorms in this area, where the European model will not show it.”

 

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

Unfortunately the GEFS-FV3 is going to exhibit the same issue when the GEFS gets upgraded this spring.  Really hope they get a fix for the FV3 GFS & GEFS before next winter.

Highest gusts I recorded were 42 mph in Muttontown and 39 mph in Syosset.

28 minutes ago, psv88 said:

You surely realize you are the biggest weenie on all of the weather boards right? All snow all the time for you.

Anthony has passed the torch.  Took long enough for that happen. 

3 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

23F

 

Unbelievable that it hasnt been that cold in a while

21.4 for low at my weather stations. A whole 8 days since it was 21 at my weather stations.

2 hours ago, David-LI said:

Anything on the 18z euro for the 18th/19th?

6Z & 18Z Euro go out to 90 hrs only.

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Go figure I’m in Syracuse this week and LI may get a half decent event. That’s how it’s essentially a guarantee this edges north a bit and swipes the area. 

Thank you for your sacrifice   We’ll take the 1” or so of snow we get here in the island tonight. 

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

I meant $70k per kid total before kindergarten. So 2 kids is $140,000 in daycare before kindergarten. I’m already $100k In 

Yeah that makes a lot more sense. Kids are definitely not cheap and the high cost of living here doesn’t make it easy.

33 minutes ago, psv88 said:

 

The real problem is daycare. Public schools are great, but between 1 and 5, youll spend $70,000 per kid. For a young family with a house thats killer. You can easily make $200,000 + household income and be broke, living a modest life. Without daycare its a different story. But for young families, its is extremely hard to make ends meet and own a house in the NYC Metro area.

$70k per kid?  Where the heck is the kid going?  We pay $6k for summer camp and around $26k for daycare/school at JCC for one kid.  It’s close to $70k for two kids though.

31.7/29 now in Syosset with sleet and rain it appears. 

23 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I was going to ask too. Repositioning flight or legit someone just avoiding the bridges? How long would that flight be?

It's usually re-positioning aircraft.  I have seen Delta move planes from JFK to LGA on flightradar24 app.  United I think is big at EWR, so wonder if he was flying for them.  If private, that is one heck of a short flight to avoid traffic, helicopter would make more sense.

3 hours ago, Bluesnow said:

North shore Long Island micro-climate shines through again.  6.2” on the year for me here in Syosset.  3.2” from this one.  

I measured 3.2" which is on the PNS from OKX.  I only expected 2" from the storm but I'm not complaining about getting more.  Liking the start to winter so far compared to last year.

17.5 in Muttontown & 18.2 in Syosset for the low.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Look on the bright side. At least the heavy rain potential next week will wash away all the leftover salt on the paved surfaces. But make sure you have rain gutters with leaf guards.
 

Just had my gutters cleaned out today, bring on the rain!

2” in Syosset this morning. 

36 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Getting windier here, trees are shaking pretty good. The ice/snow from earlier is all melted now. The dividing line for that here seemed to be around the LIE/Northern State. I drove from Long Beach this afternoon in rain/some sleet, then around Garden City the ground started to whiten. By Jericho Turnpike in Syosset it was half snow/sleet mix and the roads/ground were covered. Streets were horrendous when it was coming down. 

Yeah my street was bad around 4:20pm heading to get food for the family. Once on main streets it was fine just had to be careful of slush on turning lane on Jericho tpke.  Winds roaring with gusts to 30 here so far. 

Snow flipped to sleet here in Syosset. 

2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

 

I think these models are overdoing the warmth, and the fact that every time these models are too warm, nam seems to be much better in thermals I’d like to see that in the next day or two. I think we’re going to get a lot of snow out of this and even in the city could get a foot cause of the prolonging snows!

20.9 in Syosset & 19.5 in Muttontown for the low this morning.

47 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Would it be possible for you to post the yearly totals by month from 1970 to 1996?

 

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

30.1 in Syosset and 29.8 in Muttontown.  Nice bust by OKX on the temp forecast. Still never had a frost advisory or freeze warning issued, yet I’ve had lots of frost and a freeze. 

35 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Forecast low is 38 and it’s currently 39...

Mine is 39 and I’m 37 already. I’m sure we’ll see 32 or lower in the morning. 

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

33.3 this morning. Much colder than forecast. Radiated very well the past few nights 

Always go lower than OKX with low winds and clear skies. They’ve busted badly the last couple of nights here in NE Nassau. I’m sure you’ve had the same for your location as well.