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uofmiami

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    August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    6 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

    I’m going to try and get some video from my balcony on the fifth floor. It’s going to be hard though since it faces the ocean.

    Looks like hurricane warnings for Maui and Hawaii are overdone. Maybe volcano summits see hurricane force wind gusts but most likely TS winds for those islands.  Looking at euro and ensembles appears same may be true for Oahu. Regardless, it looks like the worse case scenario is less likely, so you should get some decent video of gusty showers.  Hope the rest of your stay is back on track once Lane moves on.  

    August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    36 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:
    Anyway,

    I’m not fearing for my life, I’m fearing of an awful 36+ hours and possibly of being forced to evacuate. And if that does end up happening, where would we even go? It’s not like I can just hop on the next flight.

    You’ll end up in a shelter, if you are forced to evacuate, it’s why I kept saying head East to Maui or big island, regardless of watches imo. Does your hotel property have a building away from the beach, higher up in elevation?  In Iwa we moved to building away from beach on property. The next day the building we had been in was gone. Meanwhile we had people knocking on room door to get on bus to shelter as storm was hitting.  Hopefully Lane stays away and only a glancing blow with TS force winds happens to you in Oahu.  Otherwise it’ll be a memorable vacation for the wrong reasons.

    August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

    It’s going to get sheared down to a high end trop storm or at worst a cat 1. That’s if your even in the core. I would think a couple of windy days from the pressure gradient. Luckily the wind will be from the same direction as the trades which often get up to around trop storm in gusts. (I have spent allot of time on oahu surfing). So I would think your looking at some palm fronds down and maybe a couple scattered power outages in the higher more rural terrain. The big resorts should be perfectly fine. The is all assuming you miss what ever is left of the core.  

    I agree, should the storm not make landfall the winds will be out of the trade direction primarily and the trades can gust into the 40+ mph range sometimes too.  12Z GFS apparently wants to run Lane into the Big Island FWIW.  Curious to see how strong the shear is, once Lane begins to turn, which will be crucial for what islands get some impacts from storm.

    August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

    I don’t think evacuating is an option right now. I guess if things trend stronger, they might order one. As of now, we’re planning to ride it out, not supposed to come home till a week from tomorrow so we’re hoping to salvage at least this weekend and early next week.

    I went through Iwa on Kauai in 82 as a child, sparked my interest in weather.  Thankfully my dad worked for United so were able to get out afterwards, otherwise it would have been a while due to the destruction & lack of power.  I'm sure the storm will miss and you'll be ok.  Enjoy your time in Oahu.  

    August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

    I woke up this morning to see that the track of Lane has shifted significantly to the right. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center now says that a hurricane watch could be issued for the NW Hawaiian islands by tonight. The locals here say they can feel the storm coming because the winds have been so calm. The Hurricane has literally sucked away all the breezes as they put it.

    Unlike the other islands, the poplulated portions of Ohau aren’t protected from the mountains.

    I guess I picked a bad time to go to Ohau.

    They freak when the trades stop, which is funny IMO. When I was there (Maui) back 2014 during the El Nino, the locals were dying due to the lack of trades, they can't take the humidity without the wind.  Usually trades are lacking with an El Nino developing or happening there.  Of course, there is also an increased chance for Hurricanes there during El Nino too.  Good luck with Lane, should the storm come your way.  I would change plans and head to Maui or Big Island IMO, so you can fly back to mainland when your trip should be over, unless you want to stay and experience a Hurricane in Hawaii.

    August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

    Yea it will be nice. Going without the wife and kids to see an old buddy of mine and my dad who lives down there. Plan on drinking, eating, boating and relaxing. The past few weeks have prepared me for the Miami Heat

    It's actually breezy there unless you are inland away from water, so it's not that bad.  At least that's my recollection when I had done summer sessions down at UM in the late 90s.  Plus it usually rains btwn 2-5pm too.  Enjoy your trip down there.

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