uofmiami

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

^^^^^^

That wet pattern right along the East Coast is interesting. Hinting at enhancement of convection and possibly close in tropical activity. The ECMWF actually caught the potential for all the flooding last summer in the Mid-Atlantic with the May forecast. So its seasonal forecasts can show some skill as to where the heaviest rainfall potential exists.

 

 

Agree Chris, we'll probably be on periphery of WAR & in close development of the tropics will be something to watch this summer.

I’m getting some huge house shaking claps of thunder here in Syosset.  Heavy rains finally started too. 

Looks like BDCF is moving through Nassau, temp is already 63 in Syosset from 72 just about an hour ago with winds out of the E.

71.9 so far in Syosset & hanging around 72 in Muttontown.

20 minutes ago, psv88 said:

70. Nice surprise 

Knew last night going home when it was drizzle and foggy that the warm front was going to push through so today would be nice for once.  Too bad we get BDCF later this evening & back into the misery called spring this year.

33.6 in Syosset and 32 in Muttontown for the morning low.

63 and had a gust to 42 MPH

25.1 this morning. 

Low was 29.1 this morning. 

12.6 this morning

40 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Know it’s a long way off but what’s the timing with this one? Just want to keep a close eye as I have an afternoon flight on Saturday.

I have a morning flight to LAX from JFK, hoping it’s just rain. As I don’t want to deal with delays etc with an 8 month old and 3 year old.  I’d wait til midweek before worrying about the storm truthfully, get the Tuesday storm out of the way first. 

28 minutes ago, TriPol said:

What is that feature by the Carolinas? Looks like a weak tropical storm!

1.6 for the low in Syosset. 

5 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Any chance of tornadic activity associated with the squall line?

Snownado?  Lol that would be a first.

Probably end up a rainstorm, as cold air will once again be an issue, if this storm does happen.  There’s no high pressure in Quebec for cold air source should storm wrap up.

4.2 so far in Syosset.  Windchill -13

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Did JFK hit 50? The last I saw they were at 49 and the next time I looked they were down to 41.

Yeah I saw 50 at jfk with mist in the obs history. 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KJFK&table=1&num=168&banner=off

15 minutes ago, North and West said:

Good reminder. Get gas today, too, in case there's a lot of freezing rain and power goes out. Pumps won't work sans electricity.

Most gas stations have generators after Sandy down here. Regardless, filling up is smart ahead of any storm. 

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s what P-Type issues mean...snow...sleet...freezing rain....rain. But indications are we may be able to handle an amplified system and stay all snow at the coast sometime after Jan 25th. The MJO will finally be weakening along with the expected El Niño progression to colder and snowier. Lines up nicely with El Niño climatology. 

18 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I know its been asked before maybe even by me but where can we view the Para ? Pay sight or is it right in front of me somewhere ? Thanks

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019011306&fh=12

1.31” here, 1.35” in Muttontown.

30 minutes ago, tim said:

...not bad for nassau county.

Thanks, surprisingly I radiate well here in Syosset.  Even beating my other weather station at my parent’s house in Muttontown. 

26.4 this morning.