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uofmiami

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    July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    Just now, doncat said:

    Agree it's like that every month...i went back and checked a while ago and those departure anomalies started suddenly, i think maybe a year and a half ago or so...prior to that the departures were in line with other sites.

    How long has construction of new terminals, etc been going on for at LGA?  Wonder if there is a correlation with that.

    July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    1 hour ago, lee59 said:

    Yes all areas have risen but nighttime temperatures fall so much more in rural areas. I should add, especially on quiet nights with no wind.

    All depends on how much pavement/concrete is around and closeness of houses to each other. I radiate well in N Syosset compared to when I lived in Great Neck.  My parent’s house in Muttontown radiates even better than my house in Syosset.  Flip side is unless it’s a hot day not a lock for 90 either. Both locations only hit 89 today for the high. 

    July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, wdrag said:

    Quick question:  Am a little frustrated with MDL not posting MOS since 7/6 and I know NWS wants buy in on the NBM and is ready to discontinue,  but myself,  I like MOS as an idea of concerns.  Is anyone able to acquire the GFS extended statistical guidance for locations in NJ and NYC... (not ALB).  Just point me in the right direction. Thanks much,

     Walt

    Walt, try this link as MOS moved:

    https://www.weather.gov/mdl/mos_getbull

    F7DB2F27-83B6-40A3-A969-CD4506CD0C27.thumb.png.3b415b5cf333bda3641bcef4cf1bc2b9.png

    • Thanks 1

    Tropical Storm Fay

    in New York City Metro

    Posted 

    Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020

Satellite and radar imagery, along with surface observations, have 
shown that the area of the low pressure near the coast of North 
Carolina reformed closer to the deep convection east of the Outer 
Banks today.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft 
investigating the disturbance this afternoon confirmed that the 
center is located near the edge of the primary convective mass, and 
that the system is producing an area of 35-40 kt winds to the east 
and southeast of the center. Based on these observations, the 
system is classified as a tropical storm with an initial intensity 
of 40 kt.

Fay is located over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and within an 
area of light to moderate westerly shear.  These environmental 
conditions could allow for slight strengthening tonight and Friday.  
After that time, the circulation is forecast to interact with the 
mid-Atlantic coast and will be passing over cooler waters north of 
the Gulf Stream, likely limiting any further intensification.  Fay 
should weakening quickly once it moves inland Friday night or 
Saturday. 

Since a new center has recently formed, the initial motion is a
highly uncertain 360/6 kt. Fay is expected to move generally
northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic
and an approaching mid-latitude trough.  The 12Z dynamical model
guidance has come into much better agreement on a track very close
to the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast. With the recent center 
reformation to the northeast, the tracker guidance from the 
dynamical models shows a track farther offshore than the model 
fields imply.  As a result, the NHC track lies along the left side 
of the guidance envelope but it is not as far west as what is 
indicated in the model fields. 

The NHC track and intensity forecast has required the issuance of a 
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the U.S. coast from the  
mid-Atlantic states to southern New England.

Key Messages:

1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated 
totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic 
states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains 
may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. 
Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 

2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the 
mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a 
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coasts of New Jersey, 
New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 35.5N  74.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 37.1N  74.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 39.0N  74.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 41.6N  73.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  11/1800Z 45.3N  72.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  12/0600Z 49.1N  70.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

    Tropical Storm Fay

    in New York City Metro

    Posted 

    Flood Watch
National Weather Service New York NY
405 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
100915-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.A.0001.200710T1000Z-200711T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
405 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for Southern Connecticut, Northeast New
  Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, New York City and Long Island.

* From Friday morning through Friday evening.

* Heavy rain showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast
  Friday into Friday evening. A total of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
  is forecast with locally higher amounts possible. Torrential
  rainfall within a short period of time will be possible and this
  could lead to flooding of low lying, urban and poor drainage
  areas. Some smaller streams and rivers could exceed bankfull.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.
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