Nomz
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Everything posted by Nomz
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We have some good troughing for the next week or two. Maybe, just maybe, we get a hail mary event somewhere in there.
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Still a really heavy cloud deck here in DC. My thoughts are pretty similar to that of the latest AFD; we probably aren't gonna get enough surface heating and instability to pop anything cool.
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I learned my lesson with marginal temps in the Georgetown desert.
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Just barely in the spc 5# tornado risk
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I definitely think we go slight at some point. It's a bit of a balancing act with the NAM depiction vs some of the other models (thread the needle...). The NAM has a faster 700mb jet, which leads to a better EML over our area, but leaves subsidence in the exit region of the jet. The other models are much slower with the 700mb flow, so the EML is much weaker (<750 CAPE), but we are in the favorable area of the jet, so we get decent forcing for ascent and actual convection.
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Real thoughts: Right now models are progging mostly <1000 MUCAPE and pretty wide temp/dew spreads for most of the sub except the extreme southern areas, which basically precludes any real fun severe wx. However, CAPE could be a little undermodeled since we have such a seasonally extreme EML being transported out of the SW. And we have a decently favorable 700mb setup to deliver the EML to our region, although it's not perfect. Note ridging to the south, which is crucial for getting the goods up to the northeast. Would like to have that trough more towards the west coast than Texas, and the Pacific High more towards Alaska. Average 700mb setup to get an EML to the northeast (keep in mind this includes all the way up to New England, so the average is a little north of what we need): La Plata 700mb setup: Wednesday 21z 700mb per the 18z GFS:
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RRFS simref eye candy. Outlier run, but it's fun to look at.
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Happy to report it’s raining dendrites up in BOS
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Outta gas and Outta Time: Early March Winter Storm finale
Nomz replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
Good news i'll be in Boston monday so y'all probably getting 10" -
Outta gas and Outta Time: Early March Winter Storm finale
Nomz replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
I can't wait to see wsw initiated in Shenandoah while we get .02" QPF -
IMBY i'd need measurable snow to beat Sunday lmfao
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Agreed on this week. Both are just weak clippers (i.e. BOS might get 1-2 from each) that usually pass way north, or when they come south, just get destroyed by the mountains. Never really had a chance.
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Boston gets 18 again
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Wasn't this thing in like fucking Canada two runs ago?
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37.9 and -sn. Don't think they'll make it to 40" after all
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TF Green is due to report at the top of the hour; they were at 32.8" six hours ago. I could see 40"
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Sun angle put in work today
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33.5 in RI and still falling. Goodness.
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We just needed like twenty more miles… unfortunately it just slowly slid back from that.
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That SE MA/RI band is just insane. Multiple reports of 24” and I could see that band dumping another foot easy.
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MA and RI probably make runs at their state record snowfalls today...
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I can't do this shit again
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I'm shocked at how long this band has lasted. Literally zero forcing at h850 and h700
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I agree. Some surfaces, especially sidewalks, formed some puddles by like 7pm, and it was game over. No chance to accumulate on that, even though we were probably getting like 1"/hr rates on the backside.
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0:1 ratios IMBY emoji shooting self.mp4
