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Everything posted by Chattownsnow
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January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event
Chattownsnow replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah I saw that and figured that’s what it was. I believe the icon is often on the warmer side with temps across the board if I remember correctly so it may be wrong with that. I don’t think any model besides the NAM still have mixing issues. Though it is right at the door step . -
January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event
Chattownsnow replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looks like it came in a little lighter on total QPF. Basically noise at this point I suppose but worth noting. The short range models are mostly holding serve if not beefing up QPF slightly as the event closes in. . -
January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event
Chattownsnow replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Man, Chattanooga right on the razors edge. Wouldn’t have it any other way around here lol . -
January 28th-29th Clippers/NW Flow Obs/Last Minute Forecasts.
Chattownsnow replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Have a dusting of snow here in Chattanooga. Go figure lol -
Man it’s so unfortunate because the timing of that Tuesday storm is just terrible in this excellent pattern. Smack in the middle of a small relaxation period. Oh well what can ya do? Sandwiched between two northern stream waves in the flow. Everything is taking the low road for now.
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I’ll be pretty disappointed if we miss out on all these opportunities here in Chattanooga during this pattern. I feel like we are in a great spot until I see things trending more SE on the latest modeling and ensembles the last 24 hrs. Typically I would think this is exactly we’re we would want to see things at this stage in the game but ensembles appear to be keying in more to our east with support further west diminishing. Either way I love that we at least have so many things to watch.
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Had a some brief periods of mixing in downtown Chattanooga today but just light rain as of now. Unless we somehow get some heavier returns in here later I don’t see how it amounts to anything this way. Back end doesn’t look all that impressive to me as of now
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Might be hallucinating but I swear there are a few wet flakes falling north of Chattanooga about 20 miles where I am right now driving highway 27
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Yep that looks about right!
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I don’t think that is actually the same person but I could be wrong.
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Gawx. A treasure trove of useful data
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Cold pushes are notoriously under model when it’s dense cold arctic air at times in modeling. It can often settle further south than modeling anticipates but I’m not sure if this would qualify as that type of situation or not. Seems we have decent cold out in front or at least near bye as the next shot comes in over the top of this s/w.
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Thanks for sharing that. Been working and haven’t had a lot of time to really look at all the information available. Usually clear skies are troubling in situations like this but clearly this may not matter much.
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With or without clearing storms are coming, but if any clearing happens (which I don’t think we get any meaningful amount) it certainly would be bad for the intensity potential of storms.
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Things are clearing out a decent bit to our west. I don’t know how well that translates further east but we get any kind of clearing or partly cloudy skies and I think everyone on the forum knows what that means.
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January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
Chattownsnow replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
rain for real? -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
Chattownsnow replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
It has been so long since I have seen a pattern like that modeled with staying power. Dare I say 2009-2010 look there? Which is funny considering a completely opposite ENSO. -
I can't remember the last time we had a storm like this where there really was no good solution in the projected outcomes. Someones gonna get pounded bad regardless. The only hope is that this thing finds a way to stay off shore and scoot slowly out to sea or comes in weak and keeps moving northeast. Most movies you at least have an outcome to root for... Not really here. Unless you like the bad guys winning.
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There's just no way we see Harvey-like flooding in this right? People keep mentioning it like it's possible. Didn't Harvey have totals in the 40-50 inch range in many spots? I don't see anything showing that right now other than maybe isolated spots.
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I got 4 inches of rain a couple weeks ago from some storms training over me in the afternoon and thought the flooding from that was impressive... Can't even fathom what 3-4 feet would be like
