Baum

so LOT has me 4-7". NAM has me at 4" and GFS 7". 

^

Grid for downtown is 4-7".  I'm sure the qpf cut on the 00Z NAM didn't help.

^

I love this forum. I'm old enough to remember no internet...just a NOAA weather radio.

fmby LOT has done great with a 4-7 call. ^ my post was simultaneous as the above, and is not a response to it. 

28 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Right on my call of 4.1. 

6 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said:

If you're an optimistic Southeast Michigander, do yourself a favor and avoid looking at the 0z HRRR.

take em out back and slap the sh7t out of em

Just now, Moosey2323 said:

Seeing this GFS makes me wonder if most of Michigan and maybe some more Illinois counties deserve warnings...

it's one model. big difference here is didn't head NE. And if it's slower that could help amounts i suspect.

that turn NE over northern Il is a different look than I'm used to seeing. 

^

yeah nice write up.  Basically sticking with a high end advisory by me. Seems fair, and new NAM supports this.

Backyard call: 4.6"

4 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

“Warning” is 6 inches in 6 hours or 8 inches in 12 hours right? Wind impacts = Blizzard headlines correct? Believe we are supposed to get some wind with this but not enough to meet criteria?

I’m right on the LOT 4-6/6-8 line and the timing of this is going to be awful for AM commute and school. 

From LOT's aviation update: 

"very little change from previuos thinking"

and that's Izzi who is a master at making changes.

6 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Given the 12z Euro, I don’t think there’s enough support for LOT to shift the warning area south. 

I think there good. Though there has been a trend south  as the GFS came a touch south, and the Euro (which was a south outlier) a hair north to reach a consensus track just north of me.

7 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

A few days ago when the track was through central Wisconsin, Skilling put out a map that was 100 miles south of that and stuck to it. He went against the models

Yes. I commented on it. 

Just now, ChiTownSnow said:

And that why they are the last true "forecasters" left.  Seems as if everyone just hinge on the latest model runs these days

am I missing something. I see there has been a slight shift south by the GFS. But it's not like this is tracking over Moline and than over Terre Haute. Majority of models still favor a track north of Chicago.

25 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Just about to post the same.. it's like the models corrected itself up untill the L reaches Iowa, then the rest of the run is the same as before.  This is why i think future runs may slide south

Models seem fairly locked into a track right around the state line. Very good consensus as we near zero hour.

Just now, Hoosier said:

With the system now on land and if you want more southern shifts, you have to hope that the behavior starts to depart a little bit from the model progs at 6 hrs, 12 hrs, etc. and that the models play "catch up."  One of the things I will be watching is where it enters the US.

Pretty good consensus along the state line which is rare at this point.

I like where I sit. And probably have got 3 inches or so in the last two days. 

One thing I'll say is this thing has taken on more and more of the look of a traditional clipper.

Just now, Minnesota_storms said:

I finally get a Winter Storm Warning this season. Looking like 6-10'' of snow for me.

congrats.

just began here

Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

Solid 4-6” thump on the 3km NAM. 

still think there are surprises left with this set up. 

26 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Maybe slightly. 

pretty good consensus on track at this point. State line or north.

8 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Really?  I think you are in decent for 4-6 wouldn't be surprised if when they issue the wwa they will include you in the warning

Yup. I think many of the Chicago folks are only interested in 10" or greater events these days. Perhaps they should remember December...

while we are focused here I see LOT has bumped up todays amounts a bit. Mentions 1-3". Love these events in cold air regimes ....

Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

Did GFS actually get one right for once? I'm shocked. Rare it beats Euro

the euro's reputation is far overplayed. That said, it ain't over yet.