Baum

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like a decent snow on the way for Seattle.

crazy..right? Hope that translates....

whole different look on today's globals.

52 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

The temp hasn't been any warmer than 32 all night, but it looks like the rain that fell didn't freeze.  Not only that, but the ice on the trees has also mostly melted/fallen off.  

you finally got screwed by a weather event. Welcome to the club. I'm guessing your good for another 20 inches or so before St. Paddy's Day

42 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Should have at least 2 or 3 systems to watch over the next 10 days.  Details tbd of course.

yep. looks busy. valid concern here that each track rolls right overhead leaving us on the warm side,dryslot, backwash flurries end.

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

It's like a tropical downpour right now, and still only 31.

Rain is way too heavy to have much, if any, accum though. With heavy rates like this you need temps in the mid-20's or lower.

So looks like QPF amounts will work out, but ice accrual amounts will under-perform due to high rates in a more marginal temp environment.

probably a good thing. 1/2 inch of ice would not be good at 25 degrees.

^

headed right for cycloneville.

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

Pea size hail report in QC area.

that's one way to lower accretion

I see LOT ain't backing down despite the trends, Tricky forecast to be sure. Probably best to side with the worst result when it comes to ice.

what's the GFS up to on the second wave? Looks a tad more interesting even as it holds on to today's icing event...

Can't recall the last time I was under an Ice Storm Warning, if ever.

LOT's Izzi on the evening update states concerns regarding an Ice Storm.....states concerns regarding T-storm potential. Good read for Chicago area folks.

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The RAP, and some other guidance, is ice storm warning worthy for the heat of the axis.


.

had a November blizzard, Great clipper train, record cold...an ice storm worthy event wouldn't shock me...and then I need my 12-15" big dog, and I'll be ready for spring.

See LOT already posted an advisory for tomorrow night. Shame the second storm didn't pan out to at least keep the week interesting. After having nearly non stop tracking for 3 weeks I need my fix.....

Wednesday night through Thursday system looking more like rain here.

ice storm?

20 days of winter weather has made the board jaded. GFS looks confusused.....

like the look of the 12Z GFS....working towards my effingham/Indy/ Toledo track

compromise of euro/gfs woould be a cutter through Effingham/Indy/Toledo...lock it in.

1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Really going out on a limb with that..... Lol

solid 2" of fluff. Nice train. Moving on to a decent overrunning set up next....

I don't think winter is over yet.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

This is a fairly unusual map for this region.  Widespread below zero temps w/synoptic snow.

 

been a nice couple weeks....after a 2 day relaxation I expect it to recommence.....

2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

-27 here, and -33 at MLI.  Sterling dropped 9 degrees this hour to within 1 degree of the state record at -35.

Wow. ORD is always going to be a tough one to exceed today. 

10 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Decent shot you bust low.

Agreed. Not even bothering with the models on this. Most of these smaller clippers have overperformed in this regime. LOT pretty much a 1-4 incher from NE to SW which seems prudent. I'll stick with my high end call of 4.1" to show that I'm a half glass full kind of person.

not close at ORD....unfortunately.