Baum

Per NWS LOT if it snows at ORD today that's 10 straight days

See LOT going with the north solutions. Feels the Euro is an outlier...which it is at this point. Hoisted Watches for the far north counties of Illinois.

2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

International Falls is already down to -37.  Ouch.

to be honest...the focus is so much on the future today's high of about 5 degrees with an inch of snow is like it didn't occurr.

1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

3rd and long. Euro a south outlier, but I suppose that if we need one for our team, it’s a good one. 

I just chuckle. A system 48 hrs ago had a substantial shift within 18 hrs, and yet everyone still jumps on every model run as if it's the correct solution.

1 minute ago, mimillman said:

I think you’re a little biased in this matter :p 

 

 the GFS shows 5.2 at your place on today's 12Z. That's not a shut out.

Just now, mimillman said:

Also if this doesn’t pan out, there should be some rule to disallow members other than Cyclone from starting storm threads

storm threads are not just for your back yard.

Just now, beavis1729 said:

5 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Right...and it means that the furthest south of all models is now tracking the low over the IL/WI state line.  Not good trends for the Chicago area.  In addition to missing out on the heaviest QPF axis, the ratios will be much worse, since temps won't be as cold.  If trends continue, Chicago will be lucky to see 2" out of this, with temps warming into the 30s after the snowfall.  

What used to be a clipper parade has now turned into essentially one meaningful clipper...and now this one clipper may not even produce...and now the arctic outbreak next week is being muted. Not a good day for winter weather lovers here.  Better in MN/WI. While these shifts are not too unusual 3-6 days out (and perhaps we're guilty of getting too excited too far out), it's still frustrating.

melt down  watch in effect.

Shows Cycloneville  getting only 4". Toss.

What's your definition of DAB? Looks like 1-2" there, or right around 2" if you go by latest HRRR/RAP and Euro and GEMs. Toss the NAMs.

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1 hour ago, DaveNay said:

I'd be surprised if Skillings involvement is much more than looking at the work his team has done and saying "yeah, that's not stupid - go ahead"

I no longer follow Tom much, but would find it hard to believe he isn't deep into what is going to be out there. He's too much of a weather geek. Perhaps he incorporates some old school gut meteorology into the equation as opposed to simple model worship.  

31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm already thinking about what kind of hellish conditions the roads may be in after Monday.  I remember in January 2014 there was that layer of ice/snow that just couldn't be removed from the roads... even main roads.  Bottom line, get it cleaned up quickly!

got that already after that glaze of ice and than an inch or so of snow in these parts......

16 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I think if trends hold tomorrow could be a sneaky disaster commute in the Chicago area. Bitterly cold temps and road treatments don't mix and fluffy arctic snow is already pretty slick. If today's dendrites are a sign of what tomorrow may be like, 20-25:1 ratios could fluff up to 1-3", maybe even a bit higher in spots. Wouldn't be surprised if a WWA is issued considering the timing coinciding with the PM commute.

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thought the same thing based on today's results. That's why I've always loved these clipper/northwest flow regimes..

39 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Smelt it dealt it!  Get on it, dude!

done.

Think it makes sense to isolate this particular event away from the clipper train thread as it seems it has the potential to be somewhat more impactful. These type of events are some of my favorite as they are already moving into a bitterly cold arctic air mass and have the ability to pull both pacific and gulf moisture into the cold air mass creating a high ratio snow event and many times a fairly long duration snow event. Further, they posses the ability to provide wide areas of the forum a decent snowfall not as zone centric as some of this years previous storms. Last I recall of this type was the opening first few days of January 2014 that provided a similar storm followed by some brutally chilly air in the midwest....if memory serves me correct. We are still 4 days out so plenty can change but feel a thread highlighting this event is warranted.

With the bigger clipper and the arctic outbreak next week, I haven't seen too much talk about the clipper tomorrow. Could drop a sneaky 1-2" across much of E IA and N IL. Hardly as noteworthy as whats up ahead, but the unique thing this system has going for it is the extremely cold air it has to work with. Could be looking at ratios of 20-25:1. Snow in the single digits, THAT's winter.

 

Also noting the strange looking DGZ on this sounding. Since the surface layer is a part of the -12 to -18c zone, it's technically in the DGZ? Though this could be the algorithm messing up, as a DGZ from 800 to 700mb seems more probable. 

 

A general question here.  Based on what the models indicate, what's the most moderation we can see?  Would it be incredibly surprising if Chicago has a temperature above zero next Wednesday and Thursday?

@judah47: Is it too soon to begin chants of "Chiberia?" That is just a crazy week of weather predicted for #Chicago next week. I think it is safe to say #WinterIsComing to Chicago. https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1088511705510961152/photo/1

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First call -28 coldest at ORD during the period.

FVS-GFS= poof on the monday system

22 minutes ago, whoosh said:

Doesn't look very typical to me (morning of 28th), at any level.

 

don't understand.

Just now, hlcater said:

DVN is already doing categorical as well. 

that's in Cyclone's area...makes sense

LOT goes with categorical pops for snow 4-5 days out for Monday hybrid clipper. Agressive. Did that with last weekends event and it worked out.

48 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Just wait until it all freezes up again...

I'm kinda surprised how much ice is still on the pavement this morning. Truly truly a big mess, and only will get worse.

stores out of salt. Was going to scrape it, but i think that maybe worse. Snowing again decently here so hoping it provides traction when the big freeze hits.

better get some salt on this mess.