Baum

4 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

I imagine tonight's LOT forecast discussion -and hopefully many of them in the next few days if we can stay on course- will be save worthy. 

actually tame and lame. 

47 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Heard the eurythmics in my dreams

i think this one maybe money.Even any intial rain/mix will be put to bed quickly. And while have not  looked at models typically these systems with incoming cold air should help you with LE on the backend. I'd be more concerned if yesterday's event hadn't ended up SE. 

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This is the part of big storms I hate.  Now that we are into the blowing and drifting, all the spotters in my area surge well ahead of my total.  Reports of 11-12.5" are now coming in across Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, but somehow I've only managed to accumulate 1" on my board over the last 2.5 hours, despite the fact it has been ripping the entire time.  Snow gets blown off my board, so my accumulation rate slows to a crawl.  I am officially only at 9.7".  Reality is probably closer to 11".  This is why I always fall short of 12" in big storms.

solution: Lie

update: HAMMER TIME

it's been awhile.

radar and ground truth says I'm in for a decent afternoon and evening of snow. Should start to look more wintery as opposed to sloppy.

1 minute ago, wegoweather said:

Pavement accumulations have started again at KDPA.  1.5" slush storm total so far.

same. but coming down pretty good clip now.

snow.

liking the look.

based on radar trends I'm not sure Chicago metro is going over to all rain...looks like it's headed towards a classic wrapped up defo band.

Despite the excitement my 3" front end over to rain/drizzle and back end 1" for a total of 4" appears to be in play. I see the local office has corrected down after Izzi raised totals across the board yesterday PM.I'm in 3-5"zone which fits my call. Maybe, the defo band overperforms for me.

1 minute ago, tuanis said:

You’re 15 or so miles from the lake vs. my 5. You’ll do much better than I.

21.6  miles to be exact

3 minutes ago, tuanis said:

Still think it’ll be a rainy mixy slop that doesn’t amount to much with tomorrow’s batch even if model trends have been positive. 20+ miles west it’ll be another story.

oh ye of little faith.......

If were going to throw out storm cancel scenarios before initiation I'm going with gulf convection robbing moisture transport.  Checks radar:not concerned.

21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I think you may be thinking of a direct one.

12/26/2009 was the surprise snowstorm. Cold temps and very high ratios were featured.


.

Remember telling Thundersnow it was going to be a 1" slush storm and he lost his shit.

1 minute ago, glacier said:

This storm has 12-15-87 vibes.

remember it well.

3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Pretty hyped to see what LOT's afternoon AFD will be like. 

Not to get ahead of myself, but if a slightly farther south solution does verify that would be a pretty big W for the RGEM/CMC

we're being Izzied. It's pure weather porn. Read at your own risk.

7 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I hate getting hooked on looking at CAMS hours before the storm because it never seems to quite end up how I want but trends this morning haven't been awful for the western suburbs. If we could just get this thing a county more to the south I'd be happy

snowblower still down.trends are good.

8 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

 

10:1 is worthless for this storm. 

it does look better though.I don't always necessarily need the truth.

Going to get rocked. Went to fire up snowblower which has sat idle for 2 seasons...dead as a door nail. More none scientific evidence of a decent hit.

5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

I think it's a relative thing. The Euro is still the best model but the other models are better than they were due to computing power. Back when these forums got popular, the Euro was much better across the board, so even if it had similar or more fails, the other models had fewer successes.

Another aspect I think of with modeling is the minor drawback of much higher resolution. In complex patterns with multiple moving parts, the error introduced by a higher resolution depictions can multiply in a way that may result in somewhat less stability run to run, such as what we were used to seeing with the Euro.

Since the ensemble members themselves are higher resolution, they may be affected as well. I'm speculating, but perhaps this is an issue with the guidance being phase happy, or with handling convection at times?

 

Fan view.Euro rode on rep. In my time, I've never seen it support it's accolades.

We know how this plays out.2.5" of cement on the front end. Over to Rain/ Drizzle with a period of light snow/ wind Tuesday night. Final call:3".

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

A lot of noise on guidance over the past 24 hours.

Most 0z guidance shifted a bit NW, and now most 12z guidance shifted bit SE. 

scientific response

6 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

A slightly faster and weaker/flatter solution would tend to shift it back SE.  But it would be a weaker system

it's everyone for themselves. Do you want a amped 3"or a flat 6". I know where I stand.