Baum

2 hours ago, ILSNOW said:

I remember a time when December rolled around we actually had storms to track and it would actually snow. These days we impatiently wait for our 2 week window in mid January where we will have a couple of near misses as the arctic air suppresses the storm south of us and Oklahoma City gets a foot of snow. We will then proceed to warm back up until we get a few inches of snow in April. I do miss the good times of following every model run!!!

I remember when it snowed in December and didnt snow at all in February. I remember when it didn't snow in December but snowed in February. In the end, we usually find that magic 32" mark.

This event never really  got off the ground enough to even generate meaningful excitement. 

Strike One. New rule on thread starts. Two strikes and your out.

Two word model assessment: Balls. Kick.

3 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

Eff it. It's too beautiful. 

easy toss.

1 hour ago, DocATL said:

18z GFS walls off Chicago from anything wintery. A very April December.


.

comments on 18Z GFS. Cred shot.

^

Hello darkness, my old friend. 

radar looks nice. Perfect timing on the season's first real event. Coming down nicely.

winter mode initiated

Perfect for the kick off of Holiday season if you can't get a blizzard. Tree goes up tonight. Be nice to wake up to a coating of white for a nice setting. Good timing to say the least.

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

No one here knows what next month is going to hold, we can't even get a week out forecast right. 

thank you.

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This year isn't behaving like a usual nino anyway. Let's take things one step at a time

agreed. trends are made to be broken.

38 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Dec '14 incoming

El nino years many times do have a good start in December but by Christmas it's game over. Per NOAA:"El Niño means The Little Boy or Christ child in Spanish. This name was used for the tendency of the phenomenon to arrive around Christmas. "

and so might the winter of '23-'24.

41 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

From the new England forum, it appears December starts cold before a few weeks flip to milder then colder and stormier towards Christmas. 

so we can skip the December thread this year?

as they say....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

17 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Genuine question for the well-informed among us. What determines whether next weekend's system -that I'm sure we're all quietly observing- blows up into something decent or shits itself out across the central US?

11 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Recent systems (except sneaky one on 11/8) have all fizzled out as they came this way, fwiw. I am watching this Tue-Wed S Stream system in hopes it actually has legs and doesn't crap-out. Would boost my hopes for winter a bit. 

Rumor had it we were going to have a cold Thanksgiving. 42 and sunny is the current call. 

20 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Wednesday and Thursday featured top notch weather around here for a week before Thanksgiving, with both days featuring  highs in the mid-60's and ample sun.

We've reached the point where there's an abnormal amount of foliage still lingering, some of which is still green. Even with the cool down coming for a period of time after Thanksgiving, it's looking likely we'll be still carrying some foliage, some green, on into early December.

oddly, I drove I-80 to NYC this week. It seemed like most areas were pretty much bare except for our area.

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lmao. The Great Lakes will never be able to support palms naturally. Jokes aside though, I said it in passing last month and without fail it's true every year. November is the month where regardless of the weather, Winter weenies fear. We've had quite a few colder & snowier than average November's recently, and the take is always that it's bad luck for the winter. But then, if you have a mild November, that's also bad luck.

at my age I'm screwed regardless. Though I did live though the "new "ice age. It came in 1979 and ended less than a year later in October of 1980. Truly, something to have experienced. 

19 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

you know it.  climate change is a hard pill to swallow, but the great lakes region might be the first area to explode with palms outside the south.

the process maybe to slow for us to fully enjoy it in our time.

3 hours ago, Lightning said:

Interesting concept that a single day's weather event in October will control the entire winter pattern.

Is it a specific location can't get snow or the entire globe?

I think it may not have much impact.  Flint MI got snow Halloween 2017 and then proceeded to break the season snowfall record during the 2017-2018 winter.

snow on Halloween is never a good sign longer term. 

LOT just referred to a band of showers coming through in mid October in  it's AFD as :A "MANITOBA   MAULER" .  I always viewed it in a different light. (as something that is a quick hitting snow and wind event in winter not a October rainshower)

47 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Rain is slowly spreading north towards the metro. Looks like 2-3” of beneficial rain area wide. Glad I don’t have to work in it tomorrow. All day soaker. 
 

One last hurrah before winter sets in, taking the family camping up north this weekend. We’ll be at Tettegoche State Park along Lake Superior. Might be setting myself up for an interesting weekend, we’ll have the dog, our 2 year old, and my wife who is 6 months pregnant.

"might be" ?

last 80 degrees of the year incoming?