Baum

1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

After it was just as remarkably consistent with it’s south trend yesterday... 

GFS had been the south outlier all week. Not just yesterday. 

Rarely is there a solid consensus via models at this distance. This model fluctuation is more typical than atypical. No model has shown a consistent track over the past 72 hours. They have been consistent showing a major impact storm for the past week. The European model lost the title "King" long ago. Perhaps the GFS is the model that being an outlier south all week is now working its way back to the northern placement most of the other models had been showing most of the week up until yesterday's runs. My experience tells me I'd like to be in Eastern Iowa and South Wisconsin. But than I recall St Louis getting a decent storm only a week ago....

Putting up the tree Sunday evening. An ongoing blizzard would be to perfect. Im not that lucky.

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@judah47: Latest #PolarVortex (PV) forecast animation shows largest PV disruption of the still young 2018/19 season. This will likely keep #winter weather rocking and rolling for the month of December. https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1065986594333777920/photo/1

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Big time poo.
Hoping this upcoming storm hits north for a quick ride during the day time hours.... then it could be weeks.

This time a week ago not many would have seen the potential storm that is possible at the end of the weekend in the midwest. Things can flip in a hurry. And the general trend has been cold and stormy to start the season.

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Rumour has it 12Z GFS is further south and east with the Sun-Mon threat.

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If your winter weather fan in Chicago weak El Niño is a good thing. No meteorology. Just my experience. Time will tell. As always a nice, and appreciated write up by RC.

4 hours ago, Stebo said:

At least us midwesterners know how to drive...

It is insane what happened there today.

Waiting for the obligatory post regarding I-65 in Indiana......

3 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Nope. Follow the pattern and you see 2 big things. Tropical influence waning ending the pattern that started on October 10-11 and a breakdown between the 15th and 20th. The last "arctic" high has looked weaker and less invasive which you would expect. GFS mishandling energy waves off the pacific are well ingrained in its being. I suspect point forecasts will be revising upward over the next week until we hit Turkey day and the change is complete.

Based on this post I'm buying a new pair of snow pants.

Like where I sit. Inch of slush in early November, after the cold stole my patio sitting 'bout September 15. Worse, be torching in December.

Winter ended on December 15th to some on here.