Baum

Just now, cyclone77 said:

Des Moines ASOS down to 1/8 mile.  Very impressive.  Seeing several reports of a foot or more from southwest MN and southeast SD.  Madison SD with 14".  Looks like 6-8" so far along the MN/IA border with snow still ongoing.
 

that's quite the change from earlier reports

Just now, hlcater said:

It's been a long time since I've seen this. 

november 25

good to see some positivity creep back into the board

18 hours ago, AppsRunner said:

There’s a decent chance that central Iowa barely gets advisory criteria snow. These trends don’t look ideal.

So maybe this will turn about better than originally thought

9 minutes ago, BeastFromTheEast said:

First flakes. -SN here in Hoffman Estates

same here. 

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

70/30 shot it under-performs.

Most likely. Most times to me these storms underperform given all the complexities that go into them which is why I didn't bite big time on a super storm as many alluded to last Sunday when this thread was started. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to grab 4" overnight and another 2" of lake effect saturday night for 6" of fresh powder. 

9 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Red flags coming from about every direction to lower expectations locally. 

nah. Go outside...it even smells like snow.

5 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

No one has really talked ratios.  I would think that based on temps, moisture, etc., 10 to 1 seems good?

 

i would expect a bit better than that.

I don’t think Glen Ellyn sees 6-10” with recent trends in the FGEN. Think it’ll be closer to 4-6” all in, LE included.
I can see storm total of 6-10” by the lake where the band sets up. Even Milwaukee in line to get 6-10” if you ask me, all in.
Personally I wish I was a bit further north (maybe Waukegan area), but I still like where I am, right on the lake.

3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

That’s a nice LE signal on the NAM there, very slow to rotate east. Someone in NE IL could see a lucky 6” from the lake effect alone, methinks

Forecasted 6-10" in these parts seems like we have several ways to get there one way or another. Anybody in line to get FGEN band and the synoptic snows?

3 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

NAM centers it around the I-88 corridor while the hrrr/rap has it further north. Would hate to be LOT tonight, tough call. 

no changes....easy

new afd states this. Perhaps a 1/2 county shift south.

The reality always is folks want to trust the solutions they want and discount the solutions they don't. Always been that way. Will still be a decent winter event just won't be similar to that early February storm from several years back. And, I never expected that. Perspective.

2 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

Sub forums will be hopping after that NAM run.  JI back in the game

so glad were not part of that east coast/mid Atlantic clown show 

1 minute ago, Frog Town said:

I'm getting the same vibes I got last night as the 0Z suite rolled in.  I"m sensing a pattern here.  Best cure for the is a strong Double IPA(NOT a Computer model for those of you wandering) and Bed.  See you Weenies in the morning.  

smartest guy in the room.

Just now, Hoosier said:

That being said, still going to be a very nice run for Chicago area.

your on the hook for 4" at my place.

2 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

You aren’t wrong, but even then most globals and other high res guidance has been putting a nice gradient down somewhere in west central Iowa. Even then I don’t feel great about widespread warning criteria snow. Something about this storm just doesn’t feel right to me.

I needed you to say that 48 hrs ago before you got me invested.

2 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

HRRR/RAP/RGEM trends have been extremely unfavorable. Or I could just be sleep deprived after a week of regular work and tracking this in my spare time, but I don’t feel good about this at all

ok. short term model trends. Your the pro so I'll trust your insight. Would be a dramatic change based on some of the maps i've seen.

11 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

There’s a decent chance that central Iowa barely gets advisory criteria snow. These trends don’t look ideal.

based on what?

23 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

I'm hesitant for Chicago. I don't like relying on fgen band and/or lake effect.  Both may or may not happen and are much less reliable to forecast..Tricky forecast for sure

glass half full.

Just now, ChiTownSnow said:

What???. Where did this come from

Right from Hoosiers lips....that's with the lake effect totals...be nice to verify.

2 minutes ago, whoosh said:

your golden. Take the dog for a walk during it's peak.

1 minute ago, mimillman said:

Didn’t you literally just get a good storm dude 

People in this thread want every storm. Last week was 6 days ago.

2 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Do you see the fgen band as far south as Champaign? 

Extreme N Ill. Southern Wisconsin,Extreme Southern Mich and N. Indiana. 

3 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

Didn't see it mentioned but the GFS was basically a drier, slightly south version of the NAM. 

I guess that's somewhat of a consensus.....

They go with 4-8” ending Saturday morning. So this is not including lake effect possibilities.
Wonder if they’ll issue or extend headlines for this.