Baum

4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Snowing at a decent rate here in Aurora now. I, too, have my fingers crossed that the rain doesn't intrude too far north tonight. 

same boat as me, hoping to get an inch or two before the changeover, and a touch more in the backwash before the cold hits again. Been a fun little storm.

1 minute ago, hlcater said:

IC looks to be stuck in a localized band of subsidence for the next few hours. 3-4 if the HRRR is to be believed. This will probably shave an inch or two off my totals.  

theres always the chance you get a freak isolated thunder snow shower to offset it.

mixing with snow here. Probably a good sign for those in the expected snow zone.

1 hour ago, michaelmantis said:

 

LOT actually shifted the snow line a touch farther south east with 2:41 PM warning/advisory issuance.

I sure prefer snow over this Ice stuff. If nothing else a least some snow to cover it up at the end of the event.

Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

Yep, and well south. Low tracks over Bloomington on the 3KM.

any further impact on sensible weather?

56 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

A non-NAM solution is the way to go, which means some snow/freezing rain on the front end, before a switch to all rain for the rest of the event.

I’m not buying into the more southern/weaker solutions, and I’m definitely not buying into the nonsense the NAM is showing. We’ve seen this all before where some models think enough cold air will hang on, and people believe it because of a snow pack in place to the south, only for WAA to win anyway. This will be no different.


.

It wouldn't be January of it didn't snow, than rain, and than go to zero to turn my snowpack into a black pile of.......

38 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

When tracking the last event once I seen the blocking situation I pretty much shut the curtains on this one.  went from extreme blocking too of course MIA. 

eh...you discounted the last storm when you thought it was a arch way special. Your probably in line for 6". 

4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

New Euro has a nice snow from Waterloo to Madison.  Looks like mostly rain a little south of that line.  Southerly surface flow out ahead of the system looks to keep any freezing rain a very fleeting event for any given location.  Since the system hasn't shown any signs of adjusting southward I'm expecting a primary rain event for here/QC.  Possibly a very brief glaze at onset, and a few wet flakes at the tail-end.

LOT clearly not buying this. In fact allude to continuing frain even after temps go above freezing.

7 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Yea I don’t really care how much snow I get so long as it isn’t freaking rain.

in depth 

2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Still no word from LOT on the lake effect this evening/tomorrow

i got a call for 2" in my grids

7 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

9-10 inches here still snowing lightly

kiss my grits

Haven't got out there to snow blow the drive. Thinking about 6" with the back edge approaching though the dendrites have become quite large perhaps getting some lake enhancement involved. Be nice.

8 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Even the GFS

that's a change. important.

1 minute ago, mimillman said:

There will be at least 12 hours of solid lake effect over NE IL and NW IN tomorrow

other models besides the NAM showing this?

4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Kind of on the fringe of shutout here... but so far it's still snowing. Every minute of snow is a good minute

Edit: temporary shutout

With all due respect you had a prof met who works for the NWS out of LOT and within shouting distance of your location say he 's hoping for 4-6" and your talking about a shut out...the negativity is over the top sometimes. It may bust. It happens. But after tracking for 5 days and throwing in the towel as it commences without support is uncalled for. I'm guessing you'll fall into the 3"-6" window.

12 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

HRRR looks nice.........really really nice. Its the end of the run for this exhausting system. I am glad its over. Time for a rest for a couple of days.

good luck...my friend

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

A late first call of 12" at ORD...but think I might bust low.

wow. but the wildcard of lake enhancement can get it done.

flakes starting to float back down here...

covering. coming down fine,but quick.

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

RAP/HRRR/NAM all in lock step for 6-10" along and north of I-88 in N. Illinois, with the highest toals in a narrow gradient from the Quad Cities to just north of ORD.

Thanks for the updates and model analysis. I appreciate it.

6 minutes ago, metallica470 said:

Lol after a week of tracking this and it looking pretty good for the most part all week to just end end up with barely advisor level snow, believe me I'll be right there with you.

Not sure how it'll play out, but this has looked like a high end advisory/low end warning type snow since about 12Z Tuesday. And at zero hr it still may surpass that, or not. Welcome to following winter storms.

1 minute ago, RyanDe680 said:

And the other night you were the jackpot.  

What a system. 

no different than most. 48 hrs in a winter storm is an eternity

5 minutes ago, knifeparty said:

Light snow from earlier stopped been dry for the past 2 hours....

as expected.

LOT aviation discussion: " The intial band of snow expected late this afternoon and evening shifted north"..sorry this is why I get frustrated. LOT has done a fine job laying out a complicated forecast and than a guy comes in and it's like he's completely out of touch. Even the late afternoon AFD lays out perfectly how things should develop. Worse, anybody remotely tuned in knew the initial frontal band would be displace north of the state line. Did this guy not get the memo?  I'm going to roll this back a bit as it could be a met coming on commenting on what he thought would transpire 24 hrs ago. Obviously, weather is ever changing.

2 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

3” increase in totals says the HRRR over the last 3-4 runs. But like you said, southern Cook could only see 3” while northern Cook sees 7-8” (not including LE, just talking about the next 20 hours)

Consistent with the forecast. And a 3" -8" difference in a county the size of Cook is not extreme. Model also seems to be playing catch up.