Baum

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

$$$

solid call. 

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Apparently, the first in that historic series of storms hit right at the end of December '78 as seen by the nice snow cover left on New Years Day 1979. Can't help but notice the similarities with what is happening in this unfolding pattern. The "Blizzard of '79" hit 1/13-14 and was further east so that SEMI was included in the nice accumulations.

Such great memories. Every road in Chicago was clogged and caked with snow for weeks. It was the land of Bo in the big city and it was glorious.

Any reports out of Piscataway?

Everything before today was fun. Now it starts to get real.

3 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

 

 

Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

 

The latest model guidance suite continues to offer a good overall depiction of the synoptic scale weather pattern for the first half of next week including the evolution of the major low pressure system over the Plains and Great Lakes/Northeast. A multi-deterministic composite model blend of well clustered guidance from the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian along with the NBM and WPC product continuity was used for the period from Monday-Wednesday to produce max detail consistent with a pattern with seemingly above normal predictability. Going into the latter half of next week, gradually increasing model differences in the wake of the strong low favored some blend inclusion of compatible but smoother input from the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means along with the models.

the crap shoot model or CSM

20 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

Noticeably with each run the low continues to shift west on the mean.


.

you have to start somewhere.

board will burnt to a crisp my Monday's 12Z runs.

1 minute ago, Frog Town said:

You and I have been on this forum for years and seen our share of a-holes.  These post are not of ill intent and far from what we've seen before, plus on topic.   It's a weather forum and we are all pretty much nerds(Never, Ending, Radical, Dudes) so just relax a bit.  

Agreed.And my post was intended for a touch of  humor moreso than anything else.But let's face it Spartman's rep for map posting minus commentary never helped his cause. Maybe he should change is screen name to "eyes without a face"- more humor. Anyway, BAM weather is really not a legit source.What's going to get posted next Judith Cohen.

6 hours ago, Spartman said:

 

posting BAN weather takes is bold. You've been a burr in the saddle for eons. I'd say posting this shit in this forum after 2 years of snow and cold drought when we're finally seeing something good is going to bring out the torches and pitchforks crowd. I'm all for it.

16 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Just waiting for this storm to do the same. Lol

Just an FYI the NE storm has not trended SE and weaker. I have over 60 sites in Jersey to manage this year for snow removal service and am following that area as much as my own backyard. If anything, it has trended NW in the past 24 hours particularly the 12Z euro run.

Not a pro, by any stretch. But I think comparing this year to any of the last few would be flawed thinking in the simplest of ways.

2 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Like I said in the other thread, idc about getting missed just don't let something crucial break down four days out and the whole storm vanishes overnight again or some shit. 

I'm sick and F****n tired of getting missed. There I said it.

2 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

The fact of the matter is Palm hoe was the equivalent of going on a BMW forum and then posting exclusively about how bimmers suck and everyone should buy a Miat. Yes, it's a valid stance, but fuck off with it to Reddit or something and stop invading the two square inches of internet space that we use to foam out over clouds. Warm winter weather is still weather but let's be fr we're all 80% here and primarily active in the winter because we want big snows. Bitch boy used that to excrete as much rage-bait-lite as possible because, I imagine, of some sort of psychological damage he sustained IRL. It's still not clear to me why he suddenly vanished -I imagine somebody mentioned it to the admins and they finally did something- but it's the best thing that has happened to the enjoyability of this forum in as long as I've been here for sure.

maybe he just knew the inevitable was about to occur, and moved on to posting year round snow men on the Miami, Florida weather board.

34 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

White rain in the city for sure

this is the pattern change. Enjoy.

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Nice little vort coming down the pike for Sunday.  Should produce nice snow showers much of Sunday for a good chunk of the sub.  Won't amount to more than a DAB in places, but will be nice mood flakeage for New Years Eve.

A Bears game with mood flakes is my hope.

4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Wake up, loop euro, nothing cooking, post some zzzzzs, repeat 

I don't take my "change vibes" from one run of an operational model that rarely would fully encompass a major pattern change.And of course, neither do you. And it's been fully well documented here. Time to hop aboard the "change" train, my friend. Zzzzzz's leaving the station.

29 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Zzzzz

The drums are beating louder for change by the day.

9 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Hey man I appreciate your input but I disagree. January is cooked for the most part. MJO actually looks to move into the warmer phases pretty quickly based on January trends. Also the SSWE will dump the cold other side of the pole.

The other thing is pattern persistence which has been a common thing since the summer. If I was a betting man I would bet on the same generalized thing continuing.

Maybe better luck in February? Who knows though how much can be salvaged as we will have minuscule frost depths and a rapidly rising sun angle.





.

NOAA notoriously rides the el nino train at a cost even when it is becomes apparent that changes are afoot. This winter has had always two sides. A typical el nino year or a year where it turns wintry in January as the pattern breaks. Almost everyone had a warm December across the board. And while Decembers as a whole have been warm, early or late season snows and cold have typically offset this consistent strong Februaries not withstanding. We are now into the time where we see how things break. Note, that even the areas that do well in a nino year have really not stuck to that pattern which may argue this is not going to be a standard run the table warm winter for this forum. 

12 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

There were some snow showers/squalls that moved through the area yesterday morning/afternoon, associated with the ULL/cold front that swept through the region.

The snow didn't amount to anything more than a trace at ORD, but some other areas picked up a few tenths of accumulation.

amazing how many people complained about the cold. On what many would consider a normal cold, windy, day in December. We've gotten soft and spoiled. 

6 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

How’s the snow and cold coming this year? Asking for a friend.

I don't want to get into a climate debate here, but their are some that believe a warming climate may actually lead to more palm crushing snows. Ironically, your Milwaukee winter last year someone speaks to this as you had nearly 30 inches of snow most of it of the heavy wet variety from January 26 on including a frond crusher in mid-late march.I also note in your posts you rarely reference what is  going on elsewhere.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/12/04/europe-snow-cold-munich-moscow-record/

An article from the WP. Some might call this "shot with his own gun"

And to keep this thread relevant. I do believe there are some changes a foot that could lead to a colder/snowier period and put "jack" back in his box for a bit.

I'm all in on the New Years Eve event. 

13 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

On this night back in 1987 things were about to get extremely exciting.  Still remember watching Monday night football as the snow started to fall.  It was the beginning of the infamous Dec 14-15 blizzard that brought 60-90mph winds over parts of IL and WI along with frequent thundersnow.  If I had to relive one of the top 5 blizzards since I've been alive I'd still probably choose this one.  Didn't put out as much snow GHDI but the ferocity was a tad higher for this immediate area.  I was only 10 but still can remember it like it was yesterday.

 

remember the game  and the storm well. Worked 30 hours straight clearing it.

15 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

that's the price you pay for hijacking Bastardi's winter forecast

16 hours ago, Chinook said:

Be glad you are not in Kazakhstan/Russia/Mongolia/China. I think this extremely cold air mass has been developing for 1-2 weeks. Surgut to Omsk had -20F to -40F for their low temps, with high temps nearly the same. It was -30F temperatures in Kazakhstan. Nearly all of the rest of the world (not including Russia) was at or above normal temperatures from Dec 3-9 according to reanalysis plot.

I'm surprised the Climate Changer didn't beat you to  the punch here.