Baum

looks good.

don't forget it was the first run of the NAM in range that showed the 12/22-23 event was going to fail. And yes, can be chalked up to the blind squirrell theory but it did happen.

did you just copy and paste this post from each of the past 5 winters?

Consensus track starting to form with the operationals anyways. Not been a good trend for MBY on the past two runs. The naysayers maybe right again. At some point, we need to reverse the SE progressive slider curse. Still time. Heads to Michiana or Ohio I'll be headed that way mid week.

it's never easy.

my thread just got street cred. Thank you.

IZZI concurs. I'll have to wait for the next crew to come in and throw out his roque forecast to counter in the morning.

heads back outside to play jarts to nail it down

You can't make this shiat up. From the current MKE AFD: (ISSUED 221 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2023) TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND: A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THU WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TUE THROUGH THU WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, PLEASANT TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE LAKE. THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM SW WI TUE AM AND SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE, ESP ACROSS SW WI. THE NEXT WAVE PASSES W/SW OF THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT AGAIN, ANY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS SW WI. I guess Palm Tree dude was right.

it's when the storm is on your doorstep he'll rain on your parade again with annie lenox. It's called build 'em up to tear 'em down.

it's not gone yet.

we're due. Hope springs eternal.

1/20/23 06Z GFS is the standard

What should be non thread worthy by mid January will be a the most widespread general snowfall for some in our winter of discontent. Here's a taste of some local weather offices takes: LOT: BUT THE MESSAGE REMAINS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR A GENERAL 1 TO MAYBE 3 INCH TYPE EVENT FOCUSING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. Quad Cities: SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE NE OF THE QCA TOWARDS ROCKFORD. BUMPED POPS UP, WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SE HALF OR SO FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. Peoria,IL: ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. Fort Wayne, IN: THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH FOR THIS EVENT, BUT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. Toledo, OH: THIS WOULD AMOUNT TO APPROXIMATELY 1-2" OF SNOW AREAWIDE WITH UP TO 3" LOCALLY, Milwaukee, WI KEPT PRECIP CHANCES LARGELY 50 PERCENT OR LESS GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. THE WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ONLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUM, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND LESS TO THE NORTHWEST.

from LOT this AM: STILL NOTING PLENTY OF SPREAD IN THE EXPECTED SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE, WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKS ALREADY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ANY SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF THE PUZZLE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER MISS SOUTH. BLENDED OFFERING OF HIGHER- END CHANCE POPS LOOKED GOOD FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. this is called ride the 3 year trend, and hope for a reversal of fate.

00Z NAM pushes Sunday light event south and east from previous runs.

In the industry I'm in along with my love for snow I can recall every major snow event in Chicago since the early 70's(only 5 in the '67 storm) nothing compares to the wind/accumulation/ Lighting/Thunder. It's not close really. And GHD is offended it had so called offspring. My hope is it returns and takes vengeance on us.

just looking those amounts it should have been called "GHD Mini Me"...if you were in the original ..you know. Even GHD ll was not close IMO as far as a snowstorm event.

^ this is tremendous. Thank you.

still think a small thread for the 1-4" event Saturday night could be done. FYI....this is as of now the biggest accumulation event of the season for me, potentially. ooofff.

the December 19, 2022 flashback is real. The burn is still fresh for many here.

dammit. last thing you want to see.

for chicago?; looks to be that way. but some of Chicago's best events were modeled well south 4-5 days out. And yes, old trends die hard.

It's too early and it's taboo, but what have we got to lose? I think someone's going to take on the chin here, and like it. So it's been done.

there was a time long long ago in a land far,far away where you could get a winter storm to move from New Orleans to Toledo. True story.