cleetussnow

Euro looks good day 10 operational. Seeing a nice eastern us trough at 500. Far out there but there.

Euro shows some promise in earlier frames as well. Our next real window is shaping up somewhat.

I like the look of the teles...improving at least.

We need a once month snow vitamin this winter DJFM. Nothing big necessarily but we got blanked for a long period last winter, so a minimum but regular dose of vitamin S would go a long way for mental health. Volatility is our friend in this regard. PS I recognize Watkins Glen, the straight way coming off the carousel. My old stomping grounds. Bring back F1!

I am pretty sure a tornado went south of me...which is just north of white plains. The wind was easily a steady 40MPH and then suddenly I heard a freight train for a minute or 2. Must have been well over 60MPH right here. It was like Sandy for a few moments. I’ve experienced one before here in Hawthorne about 10 years ago. Same sounds/conditions. Relatively quiet now but round 2 is about an hour out.

I just took 6 off my dog after a walk just now. A few on my cloths. Worst time of year generally and this is a bad season for ticks. I’ve only had one bite and I had the lime rings, took the anti biotic and all was well. Nasty.

I’ll add that he also basically nailed last winter. His forecast was for the most part contrarian.

I’d sign on the bottom line for that forecast any year. I’d also sign for normal winter if that was put in front of me.

We might see something after this week with a cool down. Pattern looks a little better around the 16th. Not guaranteed tho.

They look very similar today.

Still reading but this is a great write up.

We have a another day or so to sort where this sets up exactly so good enough for me. It is interesting no matter where exactly the jack is. Good little storm for someone esp. for October.

That looks like mt. Baker. I climbed it

An hour 300 snowstorm on the GFS. Haven’t seen that since June. :-)

I don’t think the top individual marginal income rates matter as much to the economy or the average joe as corporate taxes. So for me, whichever way the wind blows on that doesn’t change anything. Whatever. I think the top 1% could only pay for the government for a couple of weeks if you took every dime away. And if you did that, most of the money isn’t cash, it’s investments and shares etc. which would become worthless very fast: there would be no market anymore since there would be no buyers. A discussion for another day... Corporate tax rates affect the cost of goods, my job, pension benefits and retirement savings. If corporate rates go up, everything I listed there goes the wrong way for me. I’m really just talking about how things are likely to evolve based on the past history. Biden has 2 years to get the green new deal and I don’t see anything stopping it and it will be the biggest regulation in US history. My guess is the markets and economy in general will be very disrupted by all of this. Once done, the senate flips back red, and maybe the house. That happened to Obama. One other thing the market will hate is if the senate is red and the White House blue. Then there will be budget fights and the threat of government shutdowns will kill the markets. Flip side is there will be no additional regulations or taxes to speak of while the blue White House and red senate condition exists. I’m fine with that, but it doesn’t seem likely for the next 2 years anyway.

The stock market today seems to pricing in Biden winning easily. What they like is the fact that election isn’t likely to be contested like bush/gore or something. The market likes stability, predictability and orderliness. In 2021 the market will start pricing in the new tax and new regulations which are promised. If the senate flips in November, there will be a cascade of new regulations, higher taxes, and new taxes for that matter. The market will get repriced during this time. I could see the senate flipping back red in 2022 if the new taxes and regulation coincide with a recession perhaps, and the cascade will be stunted. This happened to Obama in 2010 when he lost the house and senate before he could get his climate bill passed. He got Obamacare but the large regulatory expansion stopped there. Clinton lost the house 2 years into his presidency because of hilarycare.. Biden will quickly raise tax rates, and then go straight to the climate regulations that Obama could not pass and get it done. There is a pattern here. They get the big regulations eventually. The the other party gets a chance to rein in further regulatory expansion, but only temporarily.

I said it in another thread...I am still digging out from last years euro seasonal winter forecasts, so not sure how much weight to give them at this point. For my purposes the look overall isn’t wretched for my winter quarters in the Adirondacks. I worry more about big melts that kill the pack than storm shut outs months. Nothing sucked worse than last January so I’ll take my chances.

I’m still digging out from the euro seasonal forecast for last winter.

Prepare for snow or a gut punch?

https://m.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/dt-on-twitter-follow-along-this-winter-httptwittercomdtwxriskcom/169919243096511/ Sez put October 1 down as a date to watch for snow in western NY.

Thats it. My parents have photos with date stamps that I’ll check. I remember seeing the pictures and saying wait...that’s got to be ‘93 not ‘94.

March ‘93 was what kicked of the snowy epoch (as I call it) for me, however I was located in upstate NY at the time. For many ‘96 kicked off the snowy epoch, and I was relocated to NYC by then. By the way, there was a relatively big storm I think in Feb 1994...interior. I don’t hear much about it probably for that reason, but it was not far off from some of the famous ones. 2 feet and wind like hell in some locales IIRC. Doesn’t get a lot of press probably because it rained at the coast. Edit. I don’t think it was feb 8-10.

Heaviest rain now for sure. Wind is rather modest. Can hear thunder but no flashes this round.

Cell just blew through with hvy rain and thunder. Only saw one lightening flash. That lasted 10 mins. Moderate rain now. More incoming...

I’m in Ithaca for this one, west side of Cayuga in my camper...which is interesting. We just missed some action to the east, around 2 pm, now it’s very breezy with partly sunny skies, 85. DK humidity but it’s sticky. Watching the line of storms to our northwest and we are in a tornado watch. 3k Nam seems to have the stronger cells to our west later, while the hrrr brings some strong cells overhead. NWS says western Great Lakes for the most severe, so that’s in line with 3k nam.