IrishRob17

15 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Going into this next storm cycle when everything is so wet and soft is a shitty situation. I can't help but to picture trees and branches down on powerlines while it's 28* and windy. Yuck. I was hoping for a few sunny days but until that actually materializes I'm not getting excited. 

Agreed. People are so focused on the lack of snow I think many are missing the flood potential that Walt also mentioned in the thread title. With each storm the Wallkill drops just a bit less than before. It may not seem like a big deal but that combined with the saturated soil that still has plenty of fresh ponds/puddles that last longer and longer...not a good combo. I was kinda surprised at the amount of standing water still out there around town this morning. 

Walt started a thread for the threat: 

30 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I thought today was going to be sunny? Nope 42 and overcast again

Saw it for about three minutes this morning

16 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Forecasted low of 27 here tonight, last below freezing low was on Christmas Eve.

Fail, only made it to 33

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

@BxEngine FSU 

I think we all expected Georgia to win handily but this....

Forecasted low of 27 here tonight, last below freezing low was on Christmas Eve.

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The way in which he explains his reasoning is very easy to understand and follow as well. He definitely shows his work in terms of how the marine heatwaves correlating to various bad MJO regions have caused this background Nina state to persist for years. He's right up with any poster in showing stats. He said this winter would likely have competing Nina/Nino influences because of those warm SSTs remaining in the W Pac plus east of Japan. The pattern coming up toward mid month looks very much like La Nina with cold dumping out west which promotes cutters. Hopefully since the MJO phases are progressing along that pattern won't last and that influence will switch by late month which is when typically our best winter is during El Nino.

Plenty of posters I respect don't release winter outlooks. Don S doesn't release a winter outlook anymore (that I saw), he doesn't deserve as much respect? But it's nothing against those who do and I definitely respect the tremendous amount of work/study that goes into them. Honestly to me with these competing influences that are apparent it's becoming more of a crap shoot. I and most thought 20-21 would be a lousy winter here and it turned out very good. From what I remember most thought 18-19 and 19-20 would be very good winters and both sucked. It's also very hard particularly to forecast for NYC because we're the transition area between miller A type storms that are frequent in El Nino and hit the Mid-Atlantic, with more coastal, miller B-type storms that hit SNE/Long Island, and of course the usual I-95 rain/snow line storms-a tick SE and the city gets nailed too, or it goes to garbage from a tiny shift NW. I respect anyone who puts their name/rep on the line to try figuring out this stuff lol. 

Violently agree. Whether or not a seasonal forecast was issued it doesn’t change the accuracy in what they do. One could argue again this shows how people overate seasonal forecasts with all due respect to those who take a stab at them. 

41 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

I played against Cazenovia in fall baseball tourney back in college. It snowed the day i pitched. Some dude hit a ball about 600’ off me. That was a big final clue i wasnt going much further than college baseball lol

I’m sure you’ve heard this from me before, my brother stayed up there for 10 or so years after college, was able to experience some fantastic lake effect bands and a ground blizzard under cloudless blue skies. Got to experience 24 below zero at 1:30am leaving a bar up there in January 2004, instant frozen snots. 

11 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

What college? It's not often you hear of others on crew teams in college. I was on crew at the University of Wisconsin. Grueling sport, the football coach would send players he wanted to punish to workout with us.
 

A different era, if a coach did that now the kid would probably enter the transfer portal the next day and the coach might get reprimanded for invading the kids safe space. 
 

No weather to speak of. Nice to have that opening to talk about anything but weather. 

A small college upstate that recently shutdown, Cazenovia. A pretty good lake effect snow spot, back when we used to get lake effect snow.  They competed in the Head of The Charles a few times, I got to go once, pretty awesome experience on what was a text book nice October day. 

On 12/27/2023 at 10:46 AM, Hitman said:

a gtg is long overdue.  maybe we can do a sacrifice to ullr to bring back winter.

fwiw-saw the boys in the boat movie in which poughkeepsie plays a prominent role.  highly recommend.  good movie although the book is much better.

Just saw a commercial for this movie and then it all clicked in my head, I'll have to watch that. My brother was the captain of his high school and college crew teams. He also became slightly hypothermic as the cox of the woman's boat in college at a race on the Hudson at Marist after they took on water. 

18 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

North of the bridge ya mean, right? 

Nah, I meant north of Yankee Stadium LOL

3 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Your side, ill make @Rjay take the train to Tarrytown and ill pick him up on the way.

He’ll go that far upstate? Has he ever been north of da Bronx?

52 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The latest UN climate models have been indicating that this fog won't lift until we have completely reversed AGW.  So far they are dead-on.

Smithtown, 6PM.  43° fog vis ~0.25mi

Same as yesterday evening, same as Christmas Eve.  Fog never lifted today.  

A few serious wrecks on I84 near Greenville today due to the fog, next to none IMBY thankfully.  

15 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

the good thing about this weather is when you have a major party in December, you can keep every drink outside without worrying about it freezing and you don’t have to clean up the bar before bed. It’s just a great recipe for nice cold drinks that won’t freeze on you!

 

Unless you like your drinks cold of course…

20 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Merry Christmas and happy holidays to all. I hope everyone's having fun with family or at least making it through.

Saw the photos of your lights, once again I say you should host a gathering, I'll bring the beer. 

24 minutes ago, Hitman said:

Check out five farms Irish cream

Merry xmas 

I'll hafta check that out 

8 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

 

We need a 'love' reaction 

It’s an amazing how green the grass is, no it’s not growing aside from a couple of weeds, but it’s definitely a deep green, just like Easter should be. 

I'll be making batches of these in a bit...

2 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Merry christmas, and gnite. Lol

Light weight

1 hour ago, Dan76 said:

Merry Christmas everyone.

 

If you're a fan you probably already saw this but for all who missed it, crank!

28 minutes ago, rclab said:

Thank you Julian. Late last night I walked out into the postage stamp, no jacket, just to feel the chill but not very cold Christmas Eve night. I was alone, as I’ve been for the last six years but then I felt I wasn’t. I listened to the unusual quiet of this inner city Sunday night. In the silence I found all I was looking for. The lights of a celebrating neighbor, my four very special snowflakes that regardless of the boundary layer …. never melt and finally looking up I saw through the overcast the light that has never left me. Happy Christmas and blessed New Year to you and all our forum members. 
As always …

 

Well stated Rich. A couple less people around the table this year but their spirit is always around us.  Happy Christmas one and all!

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

To complicate matters even more, humans are quickly able to normalize warming conditions. So while there are people who don’t want to believe we are warming, there are others who normalize it so quickly that it doesn’t feel that unusual. That just seems to be human nature since we are very adaptable. So maybe there are some that don’t see the actual stats and would be surprised that anything out of the ordinary is happening. 
 

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/04/normalizing-weather-extremes-dulls-concerns-for-warming/

Moore’s study, published in PNAS in February, found people base their perceptions of normal weather patterns on a two- to eight-year span of time – a short timeframe that can distort perceptions of the effects of climate change.

“What’s worrying about this is that the constant rate of adjustment, this rate of normalization of two to eight years, that’s pretty quick compared to the rate at which climate change happens,” Moore says. “So the risk is that if you’re forgetting what happened before eight years ago, then you’re never really going to be able to put the weather that you experience into this longer-term context that really describes the overall effects of climate change.”

They found people would tweet about unusual weather conditions like extreme heat or cold events, but the more often these events occurred, the fewer the number of people who posted about them, suggesting they had begun to accept them as normal.

“What we show is that, if you have unusual temperatures and this is the first you’ve ever experienced it, that generates a big change on Twitter and people are talking about it a lot,” Moore says. “But if you have that same change … two years in a row, then people begin to stop talking about it. And if you have that same change eight years in a row, then people completely stop talking about it. So what that implies is that people’s idea of normal has shifted from what it used to be to this new state that’s defined by what happened two to eight years ago. And so we’re estimating this is kind of what people think of as normal just based on the rates at which they stop tweeting about unusual temperatures when they get them repeatedly year after year.”

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

That little band of scattered radar returns in ne PA/nw NJ/se NYS is ice pellets. mPing has had some reports as well. EC was the only model to pick up on the spotty wintry early today, but only one cycle..I think it was the 00z/22 cycle.

I was out earlier and had just a touch of mist hit the windshield while driving, thankfully it didn’t last long as it was still well below freezing. 28/25 currently under gray skies. 

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

come on, there’s too many opinions, agendas and narratives floating around in between factual truth. don’t confuse the two or the arguments that are going on because of one not the other.

 

Too many supposed experts, are making this Dec 2015 or 1997 with little factual evidence to back themselves up. that is where the arguments ensue, not over the facts

I’m not talking about the future, there have always been people all over the place with future patterns in my 25+ years on these boards. I haven’t seen anyone call this December 2015, although I may have missed it, but it seems like a narrative people create in their own head that others are saying such things. I’m talking about people in denial about the general warmth of the actual daily readings saying “it feels cold” or “it’s still above normal but not that much”.  I’m not saying people should throw hissy fits over that and rage but I also think there are people burying their head in the sand on it. 

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

I have been watching TWC my whole life and my closest, lifelong friends are meteorologists… and I’ve never heard them mention that before.


.

Then why are you always asking for people to explain it to you like your five years old?