IrishRob17

First frost of the season here this morning with a low of 33. Average first frost IMBY is 10/17, so despite the warmth it’s on the earlier side this year. Average first freeze is 10/25, we shall see about that one.

He’s gotta be a troll. I don’t know how people fall for this stuff so easily.

Some light frost confirmed in my yard with much more in the park.

I’m sitting at 33, don’t see any frost in my yard but there may be some out in the park. KMGJ is at 31 currently. It’s not uncommon for me to be a couple of degrees warmer than there on mornings like this. It’s either that most of the leaves still on the trees and/or my proximity to the Wallkill and wetlands that keep the extra moisture here thus keeping the temp up a touch. KMGJs dew point is 30 and mine is 32 now.

First Frost Advisory of the season hoisted up here Frost Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 430 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 CTZ005>008-011-012-NJZ002-NYZ067-068-042100- /O.NEW.KOKX.FR.Y.0002.191005T0400Z-191005T1300Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam- 430 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures falling into the mid 30s will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern New Haven, Middlesex, and New London Counties. In New York, Orange and Putnam Counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered.

Nice. I got a new Davis VP2 a couple weeks ago. The 24 hour FARS certainly makes a difference here. I typically ran a couple degrees warmer than KMGJ for highs, especially in warmer weather, on the old Davis Vue but I’ve already noticed a couple days I was a degree cooler for highs. I raised up the anemometer so it’s up above the surrounding bushes and tall grass now so I’m actually getting wind speeds now. In the past I only got them pretty much when the leaves were down. I’ll be getting mine online sometime in the next month or so I’m thinking.

FYP

Looks like today’s high will be 55, occurred around midnight. So it likely winds up 87 and 55 FWIW. Current temp is 47.

High was 87 here

12z has it 88 and then 54 now.

It sure is, a little over 4” up this way.

Euro spitting out a high of 91 at KMGJ on Wednesday followed by a high of 58 on Thursday. That’ll get people talking about the weather. The euro has been over doing the highs though IMO but it’ll still be a big change.

Did ya make the flight?

It turned out to be a decent call by Upton, high of 79 here today looks to do it. A decent temp drop this week from Wed to Thu, the 12z GFS has a 20 degree drop in high temps while the 12z Euro has a 28 degree drop for highs from Wed to Thu IMBY.

Road trip to Marias Pass anyone?

.34” here, 1.27” for the month.

I agree but my comment wasn't in reference to Upton. That said, I'll use Upton's current forecast here in my example, they are currently forecasting 81 for the high here Saturday and average is 69. Lets say it only hits that 81, there will be plenty of people who won't consider it hot, just a nice warm late September day. If you take that +12 and apply it to 7/28's average here and the high would be 96, everyone would say that's hot. When looking at the numbers though, both are +12.

Spot on, I’ve been thinking the same thing. I think sometimes people see all the red on the models and think it’s going to be 100 degrees and then you have people that go the other way and say it’s only 85, it’s not that hot out. Relative to normal it certainly is.

When did a dry spell become a flash drought or is there a difference between the two?

Greta

My wife has been doing it for 20 plus years, no kids trying that with her, that would be a big mistake. That said, it’s incredible how soft parents in general have become. I set these up all the time, glad to see you slammed this one home, we have to pick up our game as we head into the busy season.

My wife is a preschool teacher, I have no idea how she does it LOL

Especially if their wedding day is in June... Congratulations!

Typically you want a wet spring and dry fall for vibrant colors but they don’t hold on as long so we’ll see. I definitely have trees dropping leaves here. .93” for the month here