PhiEaglesfan712

People are misusing the word cycle. It's meant to describe a short-term pattern. Like the 2014-16 +PDO period is a cycle. The word to describe a long term pattern is secular. Like the 1976-1998 +PDO pattern is a secular pattern. So, 2014-16 was a +PDO cycle in the secular -PDO pattern that started in 1998. Just like in the stock market, 2003-07 was a bull market cycle in the secular 2000s bear market. Or the 1987 stock market crash was a bear market cycle in the 1983-1999 secular bull market.

This happened too late to help the mid-Atlantic region. We didn't really see the full effects of this until May/June, which was the coldest in my area since 1985. If only this happened a few months earlier...

I know it's way too early, but 2013-14 is the one year that stands out as the best analog wrt QBO, PMM, PDO, still elevated solar/geomag activity, etc. The last piece in the puzzle is the WPAC jet. If we can get that back to the favorable state that we had 2009 and 2013 (that storm a few weeks ago is the first promising step), then I really like our chances at our first blockbuster winter since prior to the mid-2010s super el nino.

Today is the last day in the PHL climo that the record high temp is below 90. After today, you'll have to wait until September 29 to find a record high under 90.

Second or later year of ENSO neutral (since 1949-50) - PHL 1960-61 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 28.9F DJF; 49.1 in snow 1961-62 (3rd year of ENSO neutral): 30.5F DJF; 29.2 in snow 1962-63 (4th year of ENSO neutral): 28.3F DJF; 20.5 in snow 1967-68 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 32.6F DJF; 15.9 in snow 1981-82 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 31.2F DJF; 25.4 in snow 1993-94 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 33.0F DJF; 23.1 in snow 2013-14 (2nd year of ENSO neutral): 33.0F DJF; 68 in snow 2014-15 (3rd year of ENSO neutral?): 32.6F DJF; 27 in snow All much colder than normal. Most of the years produced near normal snowfall, with 2 of them (1960-61 and 2013-14) producing blockbuster seasons.

FWIW, here is the one from April 2013: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/archive/201304/QuickLook.html Almost eerily similar to what we have currently. The fact that almost everything is lining up perfectly with 2013 makes me feel really optimistic 2025-26 is going to be a cold and very snowy winter. Even the PAC jet is returning to a favorable setup.

Those conditions sound a lot like 2013, which of course produced a widespread cold and snowy winter in the Eastern United States.

2013 would be the best analog. That was a very wet summer in the east, with a much cooler than average August. It was a frontloaded warmth summer in the northeast, but a much cooler than average summer in the southeast.

Sounds similar to what happened at the end of the winter of 2008-09, except that storm was at the beginning of March, so we cashed in with a big snowstorm. This one was in mid-April, so we ended up with a cold rain event. Hopefully, like the 3/1/2009 snowstorm, this event could be the precursor to the next great run of snowstorms.

MEI for FM 2025 was -0.7

That March 2009 snowstorm was definitely a turning point. The first part of that season (October 2008-January 2009) had a lot of cold, but not the snow. In fact, there was no real snow event, except for the early February one that got a fluky 8+ inches at PHL. That was more of an isolated storm. The March 2009 one was a Nor-easter and more widespread (it would be the first of many such events in the next 7 years).

January 1982 was a very cold and snowy month. (We haven't had a January colder than that one since then.) It pretty much saved the winter (as February and March were very lackluster). The April snowstorm pretty much iterated the potential that was there from January. And yes, the April 19-20 snowstorm was in 1983, which was at the tail end of the super el nino. Amazing to think you can get a snowstorm 2 months from the summer solstice. It would be like if it snowed on August 21-22 on the other side of the solstice (I can't imagine that happening).

Perhaps the most amazing thing about the record amount of snow storm tracks from about 3/1/2009 to 1/23/2016 is that we had a 2-winter record low snow stretch (2011-12 and 2012-13) right in the middle of it!

Nope, it was April 7, 2003 (my freshman year of high school, adding to a very historic snow season):

16-17 wasn't a great snow winter, especially south of Philly. It even ranks among the Top 10 least snowy winters in Baltimore (3 inches) and Washington DC (3.4 inches).

We've been doing well with rainfall the last month (6 events of 0.5+ inch, 3 events of 1+ inch): 2025-03-05 62 49 55.5 15.3 9 0 1.54 2025-03-16 70 50 60.0 16.6 5 0 0.53 0.0 0 2025-03-17 62 36 49.0 5.3 16 0 0.89 0.0 0 2025-03-20 72 45 58.5 13.8 6 0 0.58 2025-03-24 54 40 47.0 1.0 18 0 0.51 2025-03-31 82 50 66.0 17.4 0 1 1.27 2025-04-04 71 60 65.5 15.4 0 1 0.88

I think we are seeing this with el ninos. The last moderate one was 2002-03, which is over 20 years ago now. Since then, either they've been weak (2004-05, 2006-07, 2014-15, and 2018-19/20) or strong/super (2009-10, 2015-16, and 2023-24). That doesn't seem to be the case with la ninas. We just had 3 straight years of moderate la nina in 2020-23.

JFM 2025 ONI (NOAA): -0.4 JFM 2025 RONI: -0.90 March 2025 PDO: -1.12

We had at least 3 good rain events during the month of March. Starting with the one on the 5th, then on the 16th/17th, and last night. Over 5 inches of rain in during the month, which is a first since August. The worst of the drought is over.

I'd say that with the exception of January, the 2020-21 analog worked almost in line with this year, especially with temperature. December and February were cool to near average, while November and March absolutely torched in the East.

If I remember correctly, I think we went above 80 on 3/26/2021. Some locations in this area reached 80 on 2/21/2018.

I emptied out the gas in the snowblower this morning.

Probably an on and off thing for Saturday and Sunday.