PhiEaglesfan712

Will the Noreaster have an impact on my flight? I'm taking off from PHL at 8:05 pm on Saturday night, and headed for Italy.

1982-83 was a record breaking east based el nino that had a great back half of winter (February blizzard and mid-April snow/freeze event).

If the el nino continues to 2027-28, then we'll get a Part 2. Otherwise, the next ENSO thread will be about a la nina. The last 2 years didn't have a clear ENSO state, and we got to 260 and 307 pages. There won't be a new thread until the next season.

I think it was last year, we didn't have a TC from August 28-September 16. [The year before, we didn't have a TC from August 21-September 8.]

FWIW: The last 3 even years (2020, 2022, and 2024) all had record 75+ warmth (at PHL) in early November. All of these years had a +QBO. 2020-11-06 71 46 58.5 8.0 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-07 75 47 61.0 10.9 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-08 76 46 61.0 11.2 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-09 75 47 61.0 11.6 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-10 76 48 62.0 12.9 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-11 71 61 66.0 17.2 0 1 1.48 0.0 0 Nov 2020 QBO: +11.15 2022-11-01 74 58 66.0 13.8 0 1 0.13 0.0 0 2022-11-02 71 51 61.0 9.1 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-03 72 45 58.5 7.0 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-04 73 47 60.0 8.8 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-05 78 56 67.0 16.2 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-06 77 67 72.0 21.5 0 7 T 0.0 0 2022-11-07 79 56 67.5 17.4 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-10 70 43 56.5 7.4 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-11 72 57 64.5 15.7 0 0 0.44 0.0 0 2022-11-12 71 60 65.5 17.1 0 1 0.07 0.0 0 Nov 2022 QBO: +12.45 2024-11-01 81 57 69.0 16.8 0 4 T 0.0 0 2024-11-05 76 50 63.0 12.2 2 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-11-06 80 61 70.5 20.0 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 2024-11-07 78 58 68.0 17.9 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 2024-11-08 72 49 60.5 10.7 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-11-11 74 54 64.0 15.2 1 0 0.15 0.0 0 Nov 2024 QBO: +13.78

lol, lows in the 30s are not going to happen. I can see lows in the 50s, maybe even upper 40s, but no way are going to drop below 40. That hasn't happened in September in a very long time, and it would at or near record territory. Heck, we haven't even gone in the 30s in October in recent years. (The last time was Halloween weekend 2020.)

Aren't we still right near solar max (like 2002-03 and 2014-15, which were both great, el nino/+ENSO winters)?

Are you sure we had 11 90-degree days in August last year? I remember the summer suddenly ending after 7/31. I think that should be a one, not 11.

This is 3 years in a row now that we've had this in what is supposed to be the peak of the hurricane season. The last 2 years we had no storms from about mid-August to mid-September. 2023 was the last time we had activity at the peak of the season.

September 17, 1914: A tropical storm made landfall near the Florida-Georgia state border with estimated sustained winds of 70 mph. While it may seem insignificant, this storm is notable for being the only officially-recognized Atlantic tropical cyclone of 1914.

I'm not sure if anyone posted the RONI and ONI values, but for JJA: RONI: +1.4 ONI: +1.8

It should be the sixth very strong el nino since 1950. I'm not sure why they didn't put 1972-73 as a VSE, considering it has 3 consecutive +2.0 trimonthlies.

Yep, I was up there Saturday and Sunday, and it was cool and crisp. Looks like all sub-75 days except for one outlier.

A warm winter is okay. At least it's warm enough to do outdoor activity. The most boring winter is the one that is too cold to go outside, but too warm for snow. Think 2018-19 or 2024-25. No one really wants those. If it's not going to be a good snowy winter, might as well go all out torch, like 2011-12, 2019-20, 2022-23, or 2023-24.

I'm here in Cambridge (Assembly Row) for the weekend, and it feels like fall (cool and crisp). High might not even reach 70 today. The high at Logan Airport might be barely over 70.

1972-73 should be included as well. That was a -PDO, and was pretty much snowless at PHL.

Yeah, if Emily didn't get retired (and that was a C5), I highly doubt they are going to retire Edouard.

Do we now have a relative and a traditional PDO now (like we do with the ONI)? This one shows July as -2.14 and August as -1.84: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

July 22, 2011 had high end heat. A lot of records that day, including EWR's all-time high of 108.

With the MLB lockout looming, maybe Mike Trout retires after the season and takes over. We all know Trout has a love for meteorology. [Most likely not going to happen (at least right now), but crazier things have happened. Realistically, though, the Phillies need to make a trade for Trout. Philly already has LeBron, now time for the baseball team to land the big fish.]

PHL mean temperature August 2026: 79.2 (tied 8th warmest) Summer 2026 (JJA): 78.8 (tied 3rd warmest with 2016, only behind 2010 and 2022)

I think 1984 on that Top 10 warmest list is a mistake. That was one of the cooler summers at PHL. I think that one was one of the Top 10 least 90-degree days ever, and I believe the earliest last-90 on record. 1980 or 1988 would make much more sense there.

With yesterday's beach storm out of the way and football season officially beginning, it's now time to start the fall thread.

Update: Storm is out of the way. The football season has officially begun!

Yeah, I can confirm, as there was a massive delay with the Battle at the Beach high school football games in Ocean City. All the games starting after 1 got moved back an hour.