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PhiEaglesfan712

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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712

  1. PhiEaglesfan712
    Same thing with the strong la ninas. 1916-17 was the only one in the first 100+ years post-1850. (Coincidentally, 1917 was the year when global average temperature hit a minimum.) Since then, we've had strong la ninas in 1955-56, 1973-74, 1975-76, 1988-89, 1998-2000, 2007-08, and 2010-11.
  2. PhiEaglesfan712
    Eric Webb's list has 1877-78, 1888-89, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 listed as super el ninos. Those are the only years when both the ONI and RONI were above +2C.
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    Also, May 9, 2020. Both of those happened after very warm and virtually snowless winters.
  5. PhiEaglesfan712
    That leaves us with 1972 and 1982 from the super group. (You already did 1997.) From the strong group, we have 1957, 1965, 1986, 2009, and 2023. 1987 (el nino already in progress, 1986 would be the year to use as I mentioned above) and 1991 (another high end warm neutral like 2015, plus had a major volcano) probably aren't good comparisons.
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, 2015 was one that took several years to form. People were predicting el nino as early as 2012. Definitely by 2014, you just knew a super el nino was going to form when the ingredients came together. It didn't again in 2014, but in 2015 it did, after 3-4 years. It's no surprise the 2015-16 event was one of the strongest el ninos on record. All I know is that a super el nino is going to form at some point in the near future. It may not be this year, and even if the trades come back later this spring, it may just be delaying the inevitable until the following year.
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    Don't you mean April? And I think these temperatures are severely underestimated. This April looks like it's going to be near record warm.
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    It's amazing how quickly a pattern can change. Not even 6 weeks earlier, we were wrapping up a very cold and snowy February. Almost like what we have this year.
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    This can't be. Pinger season has been done for 2 months now.
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    1.5, even if not strong, is still notable. In the last 77 years, we've only had 10 events that cleared 1.5 on both the ONI and RONI (only 4 of these, in bold, cleared 2.0 on both - the threshold for super): 1957-58 1965-66 1972-73 1982-83 1986-88 (this was a double year el nino, which unlike the others, peaked in the summer of 1987) 1991-92 1997-98 2009-10 2015-16 2023-24
  11. PhiEaglesfan712
    That April 1982 snowstorm showed just what could have been. If not for a long lull in February and March, 1981-82 could have been a historic snow season. But the April storm was a nice reminder of that cold and snowy pattern in January 1982.
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    Global temperatures seem to bottom out around 1917 (following a super la nina), at about -0.2 lower than the 1850-1900 pre-industrial mean. If we use 1917 as the zero point, 1.5C would have been first breached in 2016, and the global temperature anomaly for 2024 would be at +1.8C.
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    I believe it was 1997. I remember Easter Sunday, March 30, being warm. Then, it snowed on Monday (3/31) and Tuesday (4/1). 1997-03-30 68 54 61.0 12.8 4 0 T 0.0 0 1997-03-31 58 31 44.5 -4.1 20 0 0.66 2.3 0 1997-04-01 52 33 42.5 -6.5 22 0 0.06 1.6 3
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    JFM 2026 RONI -0.7 JFM 2026 ONI -0.2
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    I'm hoping that UCLA wins the Women's National Championship. This program last won a National Championship in 1978, before the Women's Tournament existed. Plus, Lauren Betts and the seniors deserve to end their careers with a title.
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    We did get close on May 9, 2020, and that was following a very warm and virtually snowless winter: 2020-05-09 49 34 41.5 -16.9 23 0 0.03 T
  17. PhiEaglesfan712
    It's been like this since about March 8, a coast-to-coast torch.
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    The only time we got wet was the Nor'easter in the closing days of April, which brought a lot of rain the weekend of the 28th-30th. Other than that, late winter and spring 2023 was dry, with May being the driest on record. Late June and early July is when it got wet.
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    Something weird is going on. I haven't seen this many temperature swings like this year. 20 degrees is normal, but there have been many 30, 40, and even one 50-degree swing so far. That isn't normal. I really hope this doesn't continue into the summer. I don't want it to be 100 degrees one day, and then 60 the next, in June or July. If I wanted this type of weather, I would move to Nebraska.
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    Where? Vermont? NH? Maine? Because there isn't any snow happening anywhere near here.
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    All these torches since early March have hit, though.
  23. PhiEaglesfan712
    The last time they changed location was late 1930s/early 1940s, I think. Before that, it was in Center City. The EURO shows sustained warmth coast-to-coast (see @bluewave's post in page 2). We've been in that pattern since early March.
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    If that happens, and the heat dome is centered somewhere around Death Valley, the American/global temperature record of 134 degrees could finally fall.
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    There hasn't been plenty cold aloft since at least early March. I was in Vermont for 3 days (March 7-9), and it was 55+ each day. I knew winter was essentially over at that point. And that's okay, as sometimes, the coolest winters end abruptly. Look at 2010 (after February) and 2015 (after March), for example. 2010 had (at the time, it was broken only 2 years later) the warmest spring on record, and 2015 had a near record warm May. The Euro is also showing a torch pattern mid-month, coast-to-coast.
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