PhiEaglesfan712

If it was September, maybe. But we're now in October, so I think at most, only one more named storm. There's no way we get 3 more named storms after this point, especially in an el nino. Recent history says this will probably be the last storm of the storm. In the last 15 years, several seasons ended with the last active storm being the biggest (Sandy in 2012, Iota in 2020, and Melissa last year come to mind).

My guess is that they might be running out of 'I' names. They didn't retire Idalia either (after 2023). I think you need a Cat 4+ to retire an 'I' name now. Then again, nothing will ever beat the f-up of not retiring Emily.

No surprise here. It's quite common for September or even early October to be the warmest time of the year on the California coast.

Don't forget about 2002-03 to 2004-05. That was an epic 3-year stretch. Also, after 2009-10 and 2010-11, you had (after 2 lean years) 2013-14 and 2014-15 to complete the Big 4.

Yeah, the right call was to go for it. What was wrong was the play call. The Eagles had total control of the game up until that point.

Yeah, 1961 was the last real hyperactive (175+ ACE season) until 1995. With very few exceptions, the 1962-1994 period was relatively quiet in the Atlantic. Of course, the Blizzard of 1993 was preceded by the devastating Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (although the rest of that season was very quiet).

And here I thought that back in 2013, when we had a season with no hurricanes greater than C1 strength, that something like that would never happen again.

Not really. You had low activity seasons in 2006 (after setting the one-year, 2-year, and 3-year ACE records in 2003-05) and 2013 (after 3 seasons of 19 storms in 2010-12). Both of the years that followed (2007 and 2014) also had low activity/ACE seasons. So, 2027 could be another low activity season, even if we get a la nina (keep in mind, 2007 was a strong la nina).

I thought the historic storm was in March 1993, not in December 1992. I always remember the winter of 1992-93 this way: (1) my youngest sister being born (December 29, 1992), then (2) her baptism (late January 1993), and finally the snowstorm (mid-March 1993). I don't remember the storm happening first (in December 1992). I found this storm (which was right before my sister was born), but it appears further south: https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=128

Delays weren't too bad. My flight from PHL took off last night about 30-45 minutes delayed, but still made the destination ahead of the scheduled time. This storm wasn't that bad, at least it won't be mentioned in the same breath as Sandy or the Blizzard of 1993 in the future.

Don't overthink this one. Just look at the Ash Wednesday storm and the Blizzard of 1993, both of which happened in March, outside of the Meteorological winter months. If it happens in January, we probably get something worse than those.

I'm surprised they haven't called a ground stop yet at PHL. I know they did so for Sandy. Does anyone remember if there was one for the Blizzard of 1993?

Early November 2022 and 2024 also had temps in the 80s. All 3 of those years were +QBO: Nov 2020: +11.15 Nov 2022: +12.45 Nov 2024: +13.78

I have a flight at PHL on Saturday night to Italy. I hope the storm holds off until at least then. If it doesn't, I might be stuck there for a while.

Don't forget about the Blizzard of 1993. I would put that at #2 in my lifetime, since I was born in 1988.

That happened this past winter. [Anyone that's a Patriots fan should be glad that the Bills did not beat the Broncos. If the Bills had won, the AFC Championship Game would have been played in that blizzard, and I don't think the Pats beat the Bills in those conditions. If anyone is equipped to play in those conditions, it's Josh Allen.]

What's even crazier is that not even 10 days after that snow, it was back to record highs and temps in the 80s/close to 90 in some spots to end the month.

Depends on your location, but for most of the area, it's either 2020 or 2022. (However, both years had very warm starts to November.)

Although that el nino collapsed very early in the second year and led into the very strong la nina of 1988-89. I suspect if we got a 2nd year el nino in 2027-28, something similar could happen and we could get a strong la nina in 2028-29 instead.

Definitely agree that we need to take the earlier seasons with a grain of salt because the technology wasn't as good. For 2005, we can say for certainty that the ACE value was between 245 and 250. [In 2024, I did a calculation on this season, and it came out to be 247.65, which is #1] 1933 has a wider variance, between 213 and 258. [In the same 2024 calculation, I got 235.785, which is #2]. I actually think the 258 value from NOAA is an overestimate. Here are the Top 11 ACE seasons from my 2024 calculations: 1 2005 247.65 2 1933 235.785 3 1893 231.0738 4 1995 227.5513 5 1950 227.1413 6 2004 226.94 7 1926 225.7788 8 2017 224.8775 9 1961 196.95 10 1998 181.8838 11 2020 180.3725 As for 1914, the mid-September storm was the biggest one for that season (that was almost Hurricane strength). I believe they did a reanalysis in 2005 (oddly enough, the most active season), and they couldn't find anything more. There might have been another one or two more storms, but I'm almost certain none were as big as the mid-September storm.

Will the Noreaster have an impact on my flight? I'm taking off from PHL at 8:05 pm on Saturday night, and headed for Italy.

1982-83 was a record breaking east based el nino that had a great back half of winter (February blizzard and mid-April snow/freeze event).

If the el nino continues to 2027-28, then we'll get a Part 2. Otherwise, the next ENSO thread will be about a la nina. The last 2 years didn't have a clear ENSO state, and we got to 260 and 307 pages. There won't be a new thread until the next season.

I think it was last year, we didn't have a TC from August 28-September 16. [The year before, we didn't have a TC from August 21-September 8.]