PhiEaglesfan712

We all know that isn't going to happen. We don't have a +PDO (like 2014-15) or +ENSO (like 2009-10). Those are the types of winters you need to produce a lot of snow in such a short period of time in the 2nd half of January and February. You're not going to get that in a -PDO/-ENSO like this year.

Did it not in 2013-14 and 2014-15, when we had impressive cold? The nearby lakes in my area (Aetna Lake in Medford, NJ) was completely frozen over in late February/early March 2015.

I think you meant 2003. PD 2023 was a torch, lol.

Also, all of those happened during el ninos, with the 1966 and 2010 ones in strong el nino. Even the 1978 one had a borderline weak/moderate el nino.

lol at the 1.7 in Virginia. Looks like there will be snow in the Patriots game. Almost reminds me of the Tuck Rule game, except that one randomly happened in a winter that was otherwise abnormally warm and non-snowy.

If Philly, Baltimore, and DC don't get a major snowstorm in the next week, a new low 10-year rolling snowfall record will be set in those places. The 2016 snowstorm officially goes off the books on Saturday.

Yeah, the last time the west was record warm (in 2014-15), at least there was an easy explanation: It was a strong +PDO winter, with a warm neutral/weak el nino. Easy to see in that configuration why you would get a record warm west and a well below average east. With the current configuration (-PDO/-ENSO/-IOD), there really is no reason why the west should be breaking their 14-15 records. You're not going to get anywhere near record cold in the east (like we did in 14-15) with that configuration.

That failed el nino played a huge role in getting us the super el nino in 2015-16. If that el nino is stronger, then the super el nino never happens, and the PDO likely doesn't flip to positive in the mid-2010s. The years leading up to the super el nino shows us that a +PDO is probably more important for a cold/snowy winter than the el nino itself.

This looks like a +PDO winter map, almost like 2014-15.

We had major droughts in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic in 1998-99 and 2001-02.

Wasn't something like this happening at this point 3 years ago? How does this compare to winter 2022-23?

If we don't keep Dallas, then we have to re-sign Grant Calcaterra. But we need to keep at least one, and draft a tight end in the early rounds.

Probably not, and if we do, it will be mostly rain. There is just not much sustained cold air between now and the end of the month. I tried warning you all that if there wasn't a snowstorm in the first ten days of January, we might be waiting a while for one.

2021 Wild Card loss -> 2022 Super Bowl LVII appearance 2023 Wild Card loss -> 2024 Super Bowl LIX win 2025 Wild Card loss -> 2026 Super Bowl LXI???

Probably not because I'm going to Vermont 1/25-1/27. So, if there's one when you're away, there has to be one when I'm not away, which has close to 0% chance of happening.

MEI just updated. ND 2025 came in at -0.8

The temperature departure for January is going to be near normal by the end of today, if not tomorrow, in many places in the East, with the warmup just starting. I don't see sustained cold anywhere in the near future. We may not end up the absurd positive temperatures of January 2017 or 2023, but January should end with above average temperature departures in most places in the East.

For the first time since November, I'm using my fan. I can feel it getting warmer...

16-17 and 22-23 were my favored analogs at the beginning of the season. I always felt that December was going to be on the cooler side (this verified), but January and February were going to be warmer (looks like that's what's happening). [As I'm typing this, I'm using my fan for the first time since November. It's getting warm already!]

Baltimore had 80 inches of snow in 2009-10 (might I add this total was reached by 2/15... the temp reached 90 by 4/6), and 0.2 inches of snow in 2022-23. PHL had 78.7 inches of snow in 2009-10, and trace in 1972-73, as well as 0.3 inches of snow in 2019-20 and 2022-23, and 0.8 inches of snow in 1997-98.

They're just going to have to hope that everything comes together in early-mid March, like it did to save 2009 and 2017. Those seasons were going below average without March. If it doesn't snow, it might be better if January and February torched than if they were cold. If those months are cold, then it's likely that March is going to be warm, and if that's the case, then the winter's cooked. Remember, we've been in a cold pattern for the most part since August. A uber warm month is lurking around the corner.

There's no way you all can be calling this the biggest mid-winter la nina collapse when 2022-23 literally happened just a few years ago. That year, you had a deep multi-year moderate la nina to begin the season turn into an ENSO neutral by winter's end, and later transitioned into a strong el nino the following season. We barely had a la nina this year.

I think everyone in here would be up for a moderate el nino, with a neutral or +PDO.

I just hope the flip +PDO will last long term, and not fizzle out quickly like it did following the dissipation of the strong el nino in 2016.

It has happened before. That decade between 1982-92 had 3 back-to-back-to-back: the super el nino in the early 80s (82-83), a double-season strong el nino in 86-88 (which peaked in summer 87), and another strong el nino in the early 90s (91-92), though its warming effects were muted due to Pinatubo. However, that was during a +PDO strangehold.