PhiEaglesfan712

Cold is not returning any time soon:

The difference is that in 2018, as well as in 2017, we had record warm Februarys. It shouldn't be surprising that things corrected, and we got snowy Marches those years. That's nothing like what we have this year. We had a cold and snowy February (and winter overall), like 2010. Things corrected in the opposite direction, and we got a warm March and the below average temperatures never came back (until the following winter). I feel like we closer to this scenario than 2017 and 2018.

It was 2013 and 2014.

I'm thinking more like 2010. 2012 came off a wall-to-wall warm and snowless winter. 2010 came off a more cold and snowy winter, but flipped warm once the calendar flipped to March, and never really looked back.

The colder global temperature sweet spot ended with the 1997-98 el nino. Temperatures jumped with that super el nino, and have never went back to the pre-1997 baseline. Pinatubo was most likely the reason for the colder global temperature sweet spot.

Yeah, we should pin the 2026-27 el nino thread, and unpin the 2023-24 el nino.

This really won't happen. The sun angle is too high and temps are a bit too warm for snow. If anything happens, it will probably be rain.

17 years ago, the Nor'easter that kicked off the great 7-9 year stretch of storms:

For this year, it's finished. The sun angle is going to prevent us from getting arctic cold. As for the next east coast snowstorm pattern, your guess is as good as mine. I can guarantee you, though, that there probably won't be one until at least November.

If true, that lawn is a deciduous forest by now. 1998 was 28 years ago.

April 1983 takes the cake when it comes to hard freezes: It snowed in places like Philly and NYC during the 19th and 20th.

I don't think it happens this year, but it does happen every once in a while. I believe they've gone as late as mid-May (in 2023, and that was after a very warm winter).

2014-15 is still the record holder, correct?

2014-2015 was followed by a record warm May (or at least close to it). One of the most remarkable pattern turnarounds in spring, right along with 2010.

A volcanic eruption is not necessary for a great winter. However, one certainly helps. Just look at 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96, following Pinatubo. In fact, they are still 3 of the Top 4 snowiest winters in State College, PA: 1 1993-1994 109.3 0 2 1995-1996 99.0 0 3 1977-1978 98.2 0 4 1992-1993 92.5 0 However, we have had great stretches of winters (2002-03 to 2004-05, 2008-09 to 2010-11, and 2013-14 and 2014-15) even without a volcanic eruption. If we can have another great winter in 2026-27, we could add another great stretch of winters.

My gut tells me a cold shot on Monday, but no snow. If there is a precip event, it will be Tuesday night into Wednesday, and will be primarily rain. After that will be a huge warm up.

I knew I should have stuck to my gut and kept 2013-14 as a top analog. We were in a solar max/-PDO heading towards neutral/2nd year near neutral ENSO.

I think the system ends up further south. We'll end up dry and cold. Even in the areas that get hit by the snow part of the system won't see too much accumulation due to the March sun angle.

The March 2-3 event now looks more like a cold shot, than a precipitation event.

La ninas can be warm in February, too. Just look at February 2012, 2017, 2018, and 2023.

I'd much rather have a +PDO than an el nino, like 2014-15. We got a lot of snow in 2009-10, but that winter was short. The spring of 2010 might be one of the most amazing pattern flips ever. It turned warm in March and got to 90 during the first week of April.

Didn't 2020-21 go over 40"?

What a difference a week makes. Last Monday, my sister wore her sneakers for the first time this season, and we went on a walk around the neighborhood. Now, we have a lot of snow to shovel. (We've been out at least twice now. Me three times.)

Seeing the snow reports from Providence, those Baltimore/DC numbers are not surprising at all. I think most of us knew from the beginning the storm was going to hit the Baltimore/DC area or Providence/Boston, but not both.