Brian5671
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Everything posted by Brian5671
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there's a banner explaining why...go check it out.
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OT is closing for good in a couple days-head over to say goodbye and toss final insults and personal attacks!
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The March 2001 bust was there to be seen-Miller B's are almost always further N and E in reality-no one wanted to see it as the models slowly shifted that way -
certainly possible the Euro is over-amped at this lead time-wouldn't be the first time...
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AI? Do people really take it seriously at this point? Do we have much in the way of history as far as accuracy?
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Jan 96 you're thinking of, rest of models were S and E until the day before
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yeah if that happens even the existing snowback will go....still have 3-4 inches here even after today's dampness and low 40's
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Or hope that by the time the rain gets here, most of the precip is done which does happen sometimes....
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Even Boxing day was a miss 2 days out and Jan 2016, the northern fringe was very much up in the air until go time. The Euro was consistently too far south
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yep the high dews are eating the pack here-down to about 3 inches
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Given the GFS south and east bias that's good.
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and we're in the JP now-you want the GFS to be S and E at this range
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Sometimes that's when we get the big event-when the NAO or AO is in rapid flux
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There's often a weenie band on the far north/northwestern edge of the shield. Definitely held true last night
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Even here it's snowing up to I-84
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Light snow here now 30
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It only really hit the 10 miles or so along the Jersey shore. I was NW of Philly-never saw anything and the sun was visible through the overcast...terrible. Was in HS and they wisely didn't cancel. - Radar on this one shows the snow having trouble moving north-could be issues for anyone north of NYC (Upton has 1-2 here but not sure looking at radar)
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out of range models is a tradition here-If I had a nickle for everytime someone said "the 84 hr NAM looks good" I'd be a millionaire.
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The northern edge is tough with the dry air-Upton going 1-2 here but could bust
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Tend to agree. We have not had a big cutter all season so have to factor in the seasonal trend here...
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In the end this was moving too fast for big totals. I flew home from Denver yesterday I got in 30 min early pilot said the jet was absolutely screaming
