Brian5671

Lots of letters and cold calls to sell our house. One of my neighbors (who was thinking of retirement anyway) took them up on it and is moving to Lake Sunapee NH where it's not as crazed as here.

Great day out there-turned off the AC for the first time in a couple of weeks

couple new cells firing over NYC and Stamford, CT....

had a quick downpour here-about 10 minutes and got about .35. Sun coming back out now....

a broken line north of me-some rumbles of thunder here...

some big storms in S NJ-they always do well down there....

seems like alot of disjointed things that aren't lining up-first trough well south, then another one over PA and then the front behind that-doesn't seem to be lining up...

upton: Not too enthused.... - Severe tstm watch 385 issued for the entire area til 00Z. That said, signals are mixed re severe wx potential especially across the lower Hudson Valley and srn CT. One sfc trough has drifted well to the south, with a more subtle pre-frontal trough extending back into north central PA and accompanied by widely sct convection, while the sfc cold front lags even farther behind across upstate NY and western PA. A BL theta-E ridge extends from southern NJ up into SE New England, and with further daytime heating could expand westward into SE CT and eastern Long Island this afternoon. Convection with a leading short line segment over northern NJ so far has not been very robust with reports of small hail at most so far, but things may change going into this afternoon. Latest HiResW guidance suggests tstms will become focused along the pre-frontal trough to the west and move across the NYC metro area and Long Island this afternoon, while the latest HRRR also forecasts tstms developing to the SW to graze NYC and Long Island. Given drier air and lack of focusing mechanism other than sea breezes, have questions how much activity the lower Hudson Valley and srn CT will see. Strong convection may be confined to eastern Long Island and perhaps SE CT after 6 PM, with a few trailing showers/tstms possible all the way back to NYC. As N-NW flw ensues this evening, any remaining activity should end after sunset, with dew point readings getting down in the more comfortable upper 50s toward daybreak on Thursday, with low temps from the upper 50s well north/west to the 60s elsewhere.

Wagons south on this one IMO. Most modeling shows south of NYC to be in the zone....

Front is fast moving-Upton AFD says we're done by late afternoon-to me that says the timing is off today

models showing the best stuff south of the city-NYC and north don't get much....

yeah was thinking the same thing Upton had 88 here-but we're currently at 82

yep give or take 8/20 to about 10/10 for us to get something historically

you have rain/drizzle? Nothing here-just mainly cloudy with a couple breaks of sun here/there 76. Looks like the disturbance is beginning to move out so should see increasing sun especially the further west one is.

yeah it's ugly for sure-mine are going into 7th with basically a lost year. We went back full time in March, but prior to that it was a full year of either full remote or partial remote which was all a big waste of time.

The Dow is down 800 point on "delta fears" LOLZ

it's an issue in some low vaxx states-parts of SW MO have full ICU's. Up here with close to 75% vaxx'd I don't see it being a big issue.

This delta variant burned itself out fairly quickly in India...hopefully the same here....

Move to Miami, FL

yep have not seen a drop today despite a flash flood watch and 80% chance of storms

upton also comments: Then, the second round of showers and thunderstorms this evening into the start of the overnight will be ahead of a longer mid level shortwave trough and in the region with higher positive vorticity advection. There is forecast to be more 0-6 km bulk shear (near 30- 35 kt) and also focused along a warm front with central low pressure starting to move in. Instability will become elevated and will be less than during the afternoon, with models showing more of the region near 1000 to 1500 J/kg but the increased shear aloft will keep severe potential going. Overnight, convection weakens in intensity but there could be a few strong thunderstorms with heavy rain still a threat also. Coverage of convection is expected to lower as the warm front lifts farther north of the region and best convergence area lifts farther north with it. Added patchy fog for overnight into early Sunday morning with moisture laden grounds after the convection and some slight cooling as well as light winds as the low center moves slowly farther east within the forecast region.

HRRR says we get hit overnight

Flash Flood watch up for much of the area now

I play on a co-ed beach v-ball league and I could see lightning way to the north as well...amazing how far you can see it...probably 60 miles away

Exactly. Daily scare headlines won't really have much of an effect as time moves on.... certainly possible in some areas I'd bet you see some this winter....