Brian5671
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Everything posted by Brian5671
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I love snow more than anything but the bitter cold wears on me as I age LOL.
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A silver lining to a warm winter...lower heating costs!
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a couple problems I see that are largely being ignored. The cold pool of water south of AK. That tends to favor a vortex over AK which is never good for us. The use of analogs from 30-50 yrs ago-the base state is warmer so how useful are they???
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Normally I'd say that's overdone, but the warmth always seems to over perform.
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Last few years have had some surprises both good and bad so who knows. 19-20 was horrid but we had a nice bounceback last year
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so much for the big Thanksgiving to xmas great pattern some were barking about....never really saw it given what's out there....almost nothing in our favor....
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We need moisture. November was less than an inch for most locales. Other than the big October rainstorm it has been fairly dry since Ida on 9/1
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50 here as well-above Upton's forecast
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given the cold water south of Alaska that is a possible outcome. Seems that AK has some cold winters when that cold pool is present and we torch
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Stuff like that is rare though....usually if the goods don't arrive by mid January it's not happening
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Some already are. Saw a few "Memorable Thanksgiving to xmas" calls on other boards/sites. Not looking very likely at this point....
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If we torch in Jan and Feb I want an 01-02 or 11-12 style torch....if it won't snow let's have record warmth.
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Here's what I see as a problem right now 1. Crazy fast Pac Jet-no precip as short waves just race across the country and don't amplify. 2. Record SST's off the east coast-going to need a storm to take a perfect track this time of year. (Later in the year this could work to our advantage) 3. MJO showing signs of stalling in Ph 6. (4-5-6 generally suck here)
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There's a stat out there too-if we get no snow or minimal snow in December, the winter will generally suck. Last year we had the foot in the middle of the month which led to a well above normal snowfall for the season....
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Whole month starting to look like a nothing burger. Would suck if December is the "coldest" month this year...
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with a fast flow and MJO stuck in 6/7 that's what we have to hope for.
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Pattern looks to continue boring for the next few weeks.
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23 here as well heavy frost.
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cutter on the GFS next Monday...at this point that would be exciting....
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We need some storms-been a dry pattern with just a series of cold fronts with some light rains ahead of their passage.
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I think Feb might have higher snow fall averages even with a shorter month (28 days vs 31)?
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yeah I'm dropping quickly here down ot 37 already
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We did have the big December storm last year but it was a week or so of cold
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latest leaf drop I've seen here. About 80% down as of today.
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Boring pattern next 2-3 weeks.....just a series of cold fronts with pac air behind them each time and accompanied by some showers.
