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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. You think it's bad here-RIC has averaged 2.8 inches of snow per season the last 5 yrs....
  2. Yep-you'd normally have temps in the 20's this time of year given the source region-instead it's 35-40
  3. Take a look at the visible satellite in the midwest and lower Canada-almost no snowcover which just makes it warmer
  4. For sure there will be a band of subsidence with this setup
  5. Certainly possible-better airmass with the lower DP's and a nighttime event.
  6. ^^^ off the charts warm!
  7. Gets tough by then, but stranger things have happened. N and W still in the game til the end of March as well.
  8. that's why most long range guidance should be taken with a grain of salt good or bad its subject to wild changes...
  9. the last 8-9 yrs have been an absolute blowtorch overall
  10. 2012 was great once we all accepted it wasn't coming. Morch had a couple days in the 80's here and the month as a whole was warm sunny and dry. I'll take it again
  11. Definitely a big takeaway...mild/snowless winters don't usually turn cold/snowy. (exceptions like 06-07 do exist) So had to be skeptical of calls of a big pattern from mid Feb to mid March-in reality it will be a window of about 10-12 days like the one in January.
  12. Just have to hope we don't get late March/early April onshore flow garbage...
  13. Big part of the reason cold was lacking this year....
  14. There's little to no snowcover over the midwest and great lakes region too-so any "cold air" will modify bigly not to mention ice free great lakes
  15. All in cycles too...70's to 90's were not great, 2000-2018 was great....2019-? crap
  16. yep-fast flow might be our final nail. if it comes down to that it will be 2 brief intervals of cold/snow chances in an incredibly warm winter.
  17. Once we got to Mid Jan after a 45 day torch and that "good pattern" was reduced to 8 days before yet another long torch it was over. Rare for ratter winters to suddenly turn good if the worm doesn't turn by the end of January.
  18. Seasonal Trend. "what the winter does in December, winter will remember" Warm/snowless winters tend to stay that way. We had a brief window in January, one should have been suspicious of calls for a 4-5 week good/great pattern based on the seasonal trend...
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