BuffaloWeather

Heading into Friday night, 850mb temperatures will drop into the mid negative teens which will fully support lake induced instability with lake equilibrium levels over 7kft. Meanwhile, ample moisture will be added to the area through the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough. This combination and fact that all the lake convective layer is in the DGZ, will support a period of heavy lake effect snows northeast of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Friday night through Saturday evening. In addition to the snow, a well mixed blyr is present as cold air advection occurs. Net result, strong and gusty winds. Forecast soundings indicate at least sustained 20-25 mph with gusts at least over 30 mph. In the heart of the strongest lake convection, think these numbers end up to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. That spells trouble as temps will be dropping into the lower 20s or even upper teens and thus blowing and drifting snow will be MUCH more of an issue than we saw with the last Metro Buffalo lake snow event the day after Christmas. The strong winds may hold down total snow amounts (higher winds crush the dendrites and lower the SLRs other than what would be given the thermal profile shown), but for now have starting point of over a foot in many areas within the lake plumes off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Bullseye at least right now would be Buffalo Metro off Lake Erie and Watertown/Fort Drum off Lake Ontario. Winter storm watches have been issued for this potential high impact event in terms of snow and wind. Lake snows will diminish on Saturday night as first leading stronger shortwave exits east. General synoptic snow will begin to spread into western NY after midnight, but winds will shift enough to prohibit lake enhancement as the wave arrives. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The core of arctic air will drop across western portions of the Ontario province on Sunday. As its associated trough axis dives across the Great Lakes, a surface low will pass to our south, with some model disagreement on its track and strength. This could bring a light general snow on Sunday, but in its wake it definitely will be colder heading into next week. GFS/GGEM both drop 850mb temperatures to around -25C, with the `warmer` ECMWF down to around -19 C. This will support highs in the teens for Monday and Tuesday, and even that may be optimistic in some areas if the colder guidance verifies. Bitterly cold wind chills can also be expected. In addition to the cold, this will establish a pattern favorable for lake effect snow. Wind direction and moisture will be key, and it remains too far out to pin down the details. In general, a prevailing WSW flow will place the traditional snow belts east of the lakes at the greatest risk. Does seem at least initially early next week, better focus for the lake effect may be just south of where the weekend event is expected to occur. However, bands will meander, with the potential to impact the cities of Buffalo and Watertown at times. Overall, this WSW flow will diminish the risk for heavy snow for counties immediately south of Lake Ontario, including the Rochester area. Though if winds are strong enough at least advisory level snows could reach into western portions of Monroe county.

This is through Sat. Morning

NAM looks good

Not much ice on Lake Erie at all

First watches posted ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 9 inches or more in the most persistent lake snows. Winds during the heaviest lake effect snow Friday night into Saturday could gust as high as 45 mph resulting in considerable blowing and drifting snow. * WHEN...From Friday afternoon through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute on Friday.

Going to create a general LES discussion as we will have several events the next 2 weeks

Watches in place for first event ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 9 inches or more in the most persistent lake snows. Winds during the heaviest lake effect snow Friday night into Saturday could gust as high as 45 mph resulting in considerable blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. * WHEN...From Friday afternoon through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute on Friday.

Mid winter conditions

Will likely be blizzard conditions with those wind speeds. Worried a little with strength of band with those winds though.

Got it!

Euro finally gets LES setup for round 2 later next week

Euro Tossed

First round of LES looks fantastic on Euro.

Look at that cyclonic flow, just perfect setup for 1st event. (slightly dry) But that low pressure is close enough IMO.

Euro looking good for first event

Yeah need to get the higher res in range. The first event is almost there, the 2nd event is still way too far out. There will be some insane snow depths off the tug by next weekend though.

Yeah LES most of the time is last minute stuff as there are so many variables. We will definitely have one ingredient in cold air, the rest is up in the air.

KBUF has general idea of LES starting north of city and drifting south into central erie. 80% pops.

@wolfie09 Update your signature snowfall total, its bothering my ocd.

How much did you get with last storm?

Yeah not the best spot for snow in Buffalo. Only a few big LES events in that spot.

GEM delivers but less LES.

GFS delivers