BuffaloWeather

Found the band

Looks like its tightening up a little on radar last few frames, I don't like how granular the snow looks out over the lake. Clearly the wind is causing havoc with bands development.

High winds and strong LES bands don't usually work together. You can't get high totals with granular bands as we're seeing right now. Hopefully it tightens up in next few hours. Not chasing until we get one solid band with consistent yellows showing up.

Those bands look like the wind is impacting them quite a bit. Not a good sign. Lots of moisture now coming of lakes though.

Probably lake colden. It's in the middle of all the high peaks.

KBUF says real LES band doesn't get going until after 7.

6-12" I think.

I don't think I've ever seen the Burlington model hit on an event ever.

The HRRR goes nuts with the band tonight

Looks like 2 bands forming?

Your spot is going to have some insane totals by end of next week. The PV literally goes right over your head.

Quick drone video I did from my last trip to Adirondacks where we stayed at long lake

Yeah we had .3 overnight but no one recorded it near me either.

This should give everyone quite a bit of hope for tonight. Those bands are on fire and strong.

I mean its terrible...2" of snow for Buffalo for next 2 weeks..We're getting at least a foot tonight lol what even is that model?

Euro is trash cold high pressure lol tossed.

3-6' snow depths in the dacks. Let's get it up to 10 feet. I'm going to plan a trip for March. High Peaks Trail Conditions (2/5-7): This week's storm brought a foot of snow to trailheads in the High Peaks Wilderness. Backcountry snowpacks now range from 3-6 feet with summits and some valley areas exceeding those figures. Snowshoes and/or skis are required for anyone recreating in the High Peaks at this time.

Buffalos coldest month in history is Feb 2015. It's 2nd coldest in history is Feb 1934. https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUF_top10

What do you mean? You'll be chasing with me tonight.

My thoughts are watch the radar and enjoy! It's now casting time. Anything can happen tonight!

Look at those lakes firing! Forecast for first event

Look at those lower heights near superior. That is literally the PV. Crazy LES potential in that timeframe. Winds would back ahead of that thing.

Not really. It impacts Erie as the lake freezes. The dendrites are sometimes smaller and don't accumulate as quickly. But there have been many single digit LES Events. This one I remember vividly. 22" here for the event and 60" max off Tug. The frigid airmass, with 850mb temperatures of 25 to 30 C below, charged across the Northern Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley during the weekend leading up to the event. Climatologically, this set the stage for a significant lake effect snow event. The largest lake snows in the Buffalo metro area typically occur when the cold air lifts out of the Ohio Valley and up the full axis of Lake Erie, rather than taking a direct route from the Upper Great Lakes or Southern Ontario. The slow track of the upper level vortex and its associated surface low were also recognized as key elements to portend a crippling snowfall. This pattern recognition played a huge role in forecasting this event. Lake effect snow watches were issued three full days ahead of the event with lake effect snow warnings issued over 30 hours before significant snows accumulated. As the event unfolded, blizzard warnings were issued in the Buffalo Metro area for the first time since 1993. The likelihood of blizzard conditions and snowfall amounts of 5 to 6 feet (for the Tug Hill) were discussed in the Area Forecast Discussion and with various radio media outlets days before the event.

I'll take 40" who do I pay?