Twin bands over Lake Erie likely to persist all night...but the band
along the south shore expected to be the dominant feature. This will
extend across immediate southern sub of Buffalo to Lancaster and
northeast to Batavia and Monroe county. In fact...this band is
feeding the multiple banded lake snow northeast of Lake Ontario that
is impacting the Thousand Island Region.
The southern lake Erie band will become better organized overnight.
While a cap of 6kft will somewhat limit the snowfall rates...once
better organized...we should still see rates of an inch an hour from
this feature into the initial daylight hours of Saturday. Strong
wind fields will push the lake plume into Genesee and Wyoming
counties overnight tonight into Saturday, with heavier snow still
looking to extend as far east as Corfu, Attica and Batavia. The snow
band will begin to diminish late Saturday afternoon, but likely will
not completely end until the boundary layer winds become more
disorganized and drier air moves in later Saturday evening. In
general few changes were made to going snow amount forecast for band
of Lake Erie. Over a foot looks likely in many areas, but totals
more toward a foot and a half will only be where band becomes nearly
stationary overnight.
Strong and gusty winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph at times
will result in considerable blowing and drifting snow and will make
the snow hard to measure at times. The blowing and drifting and low
visibility will be big issue with this lake event compared to the
one that Buffalo Metro experienced the day after Christmas. Near
whiteout conditions are expected at times. This will be big factor
in potential hazardous travel conditions.