If the PV is that close there will be unmodeled shortwaves moving through changing the flow. Can almost guarantee it. Need to get short range models into play. It's a great look. But Lake Erie will be completely frozen in 2 weeks time.
There is a lot going against this event. Lake temps are marginal, winds are very strong and changing, moisture is good for a limited time, and its a short time frame that LES can be produced. Friday-Sat. afternoon.
Probably not, but nearly all models have showed it last 12 hours. As I've already said now casting event. Band likely starts north of Buffalo and drops south into city/southtowns.