BuffaloWeather

Heavy snow has moved into ROC

That band is going to be dumping overnight Friday into Saturday. Has every ingredient for heavy LES.

Looks like all of WNY is going to get in on the action.

850s look a little lower for first event then I thought. Moisture is only issue, but only at end of event.

RGEM is textbook KBUF event

Lake effect snow off of Erie is the wettest of the great lakes. Our ratios are usually 1:15 to 1:20. I think it has to do with being the southern most lake and higher lake temps on average for events. A lot has to do with the flow of the wind. NW wind is usually higher ratio snow due to colder conditions. I get hit with W/SW wind which is usually not as cold resulting in lower ratios.

From Buf NWS. Periods of significant lake effect snow will be possible Friday night and Saturday, and again Sunday night and Monday.

Lake Erie will be frozen by end of next week. After that I'm cheering for NW flow for you guys!

End of NAM has strong band over Central/Northern Erie county with decent 850s and well aligned flow. I expect the LES to start north of Buffalo late friday night and slowly drift south into Saturday. The 2nd round will likely start south of Buffalo and should get up to the city early next week. (Very early call)

I thought your old location would be a much better spot for snow. It seems Caz is better?

Yeah there is a lot of moisture upstream I'm pretty bullish for Rochester tonight. Ontario is going to add some moisture as temps cool too.

Here we go! .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...COLD WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK... Low pressure will weaken as it gradually gets absorbed by longwave trough across Canada. 850 mb temperatures will drop to around -16c behind the front Friday night resulting in lake induced instability. Meanwhile shortwave will provide ample moisture to support a period of moderate to heavy lake effect snow northeast of the lakes Friday night. This shortwave will exit into New England Saturday, with lake snow expected to taper off Saturday afternoon and evening. This has the potential produce several inches of snow or more, with advisory or even warning amounts possible. Time will be a limiting factor since the moisture provided by the shortwave will be temporary. Slightly warmer air aloft, diminishing synoptic moisture, and increasing shear will cause lake effect snows to diminish Saturday night. The core of arctic air will drop across Western Ontario province on Sunday. As its associated trough axis dives across the Great Lakes, a surface low will pass to our south, with some model disagreement on its track and strength. This could bring a light general snow on Sunday, but in its wake it definitely will be colder heading into next week. GFS/GGEM both drop 850mb temperatures to around -25c, with the `warmer` ECMWF down to around -20c. This supports highs in the teens for Monday and Tuesday, and even that may be optimistic in some areas if the colder guidance verifies. Bitterly cold wind chills can also be expected. In addition to the cold, this will establish a pattern favorable for lake effect snow. Wind direction and moisture will be key, and its too far out to pin down the details. In general, a prevailing WSW flow will place the traditional snow belts east of the lakes at the greatest risk. However, bands will meander, with the potential to impact the cities of Buffalo and Watertown at times. The WSW flow will diminish the risk for heavy snow for counties immediately south of Lake Ontario, including the Rochester area.

HWD just issued from KBUF .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Periods of significant lake effect snow will be possible Friday night and Saturday, and again Sunday night and Monday.

Come chasing Dave. Delta is going you guys can carpool to my house.

I don't think that is the main driver of wind direction. There is shortwave heading down from arctic that will redirect the winds later next week. It shows up well on GFS and GEM

Euro is terrible for LES. Don't use simulated for LES, it rarely shows up.

Tossed.

Yeah 3-6' off Erie and Ontario

...HEAVY SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING... Snow will increase by mid afternoon and become heavy by late afternoon into early this evening. Snowfall rates after 3 PM over 1 inch per hour are expected. Since the heavy snow will occur from late afternoon into the early evening, expect a very slow evening commute in some areas. Give yourself extra time to reach your destination.

It does but not as long duration as that was. That lasted 10 days off the tug.

GEM

No more hot dogs needed wolf it's coming.

This is just through next Thursday 3-5'