BuffaloWeather

Reminds me of the Jan 2014 event.

@Thinksnow18 Check out these temps for the 2nd event...this will freeze Erie pretty quickly. I actually think Erie is completely frozen by next weekend.

Lol Syracuse doesn't suck synoptically. It's literally the best city in New York for synoptic/LES combo. There is a reason they average more per year then any city in USA with 100k people.

GFS with a nice band through all of erie county. Well aligned flow, - 15 850s, fantastic moisture. I think we see back to back Lake effect snow warning events.

We have to cash in the next 2 weeks as the lake will 100% be frozen in 3 weeks time. That cold air coming means business. The 2nd event reminds me of Jan 2014 as the lake was freezing as the event unfolded. Totals were reduced due to this. That was the coldest LES storm I was ever in. There were constant blizzard conditions with wind chills in negative teens. I remember it was tough for me to walk in it for more then 5-10 minutes. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2013-2014&event=G

First look at RGEM.

Over 30" in the spots we talked about yesterday. NW NJ, NE PA, SE NY

Far too early for calls like that. Won't know details until later this week.

Looks like a LES event Friday Night into Sunday Morning, a moderate synoptic event Sunday Afternoon, and then round 2 of LES from Monday into Wednesday?

And more LES.

Not sure how accurate this is, but it has started with all those cold nights.

Yeah Buffalo NWS is already talking about it. Going to be some insane 10 day totals with that arctic air and the synoptic aided moisture.

I like SW/WSW flow for first event and WSW/W flow for 2nd event. The 2nd event will be stronger than the first.

I think I'm going to go a little conservative for Erie, but Ontario is going to dump.

I'm excited for short term models. QPF on the globals doesn't mean too much they're always way off. They are good for general placement, 850 temps, moisture, etc...

3" new at East Aurora today.

NAM almost in range

How was St Lucia?? Can you PM me protocol for traveling? In terms of testing and the procedure?

My uncle and aunt live there in the hills, they said its been a fun winter. Snowcover the entire winter so far.

I need to see how much ice is out there to get a good idea on potential. Weds/Thurs we should be able to get some pictures Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 31. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 37.

Me and the wife are both negative. This makes me thing I have already had the virus even more back in September.

A deepening trough across the Northern Plains Thursday will track east while low pressure crosses the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday. Initially, a warm front will move across the region late Thursday night into Friday morning with temperatures climbing to the upper 30s to low 40s in most places but right in the morning. Moisture will be increasing across the region and rain and snow showers will move into western NY late Thursday night. Can`t rule out some sleet or freezing rain at the onset with a cold ground and warmer air moving in aloft. It will be a quick warm-up as a strong cold front quickly moves into the region Friday morning. Any precipitation will change over to snow by Friday evening. Temperatures at 850mb will fall to -15C Friday night. Abundant moisture with a trough overhead and cold, southwest flow will result in lake effect snow forming behind the front Friday night into Saturday morning. Localized accumulating snow is likely. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Initial return of colder air pours across the region Saturday in the wake of the cold front that crossed the area, then stalled out just to our southeast. 850Ts in the minus mid teens will bring the possibility for some lake snows east of the Lakes Saturday. A weak area of low pressure will then ride northeast along the stalled boundary, introducing a good deal of shear, thus weakening any lingering lake effect Saturday night, however will bring a general chance of snow showers to the region as it moves through. This same area of low pressure will move north of the area on Sunday. As it does so, it will drag a trailing cold front across the region, opening the door for a large area of true arctic air (850Ts diving below -20C, possibly much lower??) poised over the upper Great Lakes/Central Canada to pour across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic region. This will likely set the stage for our next round of potentially significant lake snows. However, it`s way to early to get into the details, but will be something to watch. The other big story here will be the brutally cold air that will encompass the region by later in the weekend into the start of the new work week.

If you get 12-18" for this storm and next weeks looks big too. That would put you over 100 and pattern looks good going forward. Potential is there.

This winter has potential to be Binghamtons all time winter season. They've jack-potted in every single event. https://goldensnowball.com/ GSB Cities The 2020 - 2021 Snow Season Normal Average to Date This Time Last Season Normal Seasons Average All Time Season Snowfall Record Binghamton 67.4 46.8 39.4 83.4 135.2 inches (2016 - 2017) Buffalo 44.0 61.5 41.9 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977) Albany 39.5 34.7 35.3 60.2 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971) Syracuse 37.5 76.6 46.3 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993) Rochester 33.6 57.4 62.0 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960)

Really nice LES signal for later this weekend