BuffaloWeather

Yeah there is a lot of moisture upstream I'm pretty bullish for Rochester tonight. Ontario is going to add some moisture as temps cool too.

Here we go! .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...COLD WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK... Low pressure will weaken as it gradually gets absorbed by longwave trough across Canada. 850 mb temperatures will drop to around -16c behind the front Friday night resulting in lake induced instability. Meanwhile shortwave will provide ample moisture to support a period of moderate to heavy lake effect snow northeast of the lakes Friday night. This shortwave will exit into New England Saturday, with lake snow expected to taper off Saturday afternoon and evening. This has the potential produce several inches of snow or more, with advisory or even warning amounts possible. Time will be a limiting factor since the moisture provided by the shortwave will be temporary. Slightly warmer air aloft, diminishing synoptic moisture, and increasing shear will cause lake effect snows to diminish Saturday night. The core of arctic air will drop across Western Ontario province on Sunday. As its associated trough axis dives across the Great Lakes, a surface low will pass to our south, with some model disagreement on its track and strength. This could bring a light general snow on Sunday, but in its wake it definitely will be colder heading into next week. GFS/GGEM both drop 850mb temperatures to around -25c, with the `warmer` ECMWF down to around -20c. This supports highs in the teens for Monday and Tuesday, and even that may be optimistic in some areas if the colder guidance verifies. Bitterly cold wind chills can also be expected. In addition to the cold, this will establish a pattern favorable for lake effect snow. Wind direction and moisture will be key, and its too far out to pin down the details. In general, a prevailing WSW flow will place the traditional snow belts east of the lakes at the greatest risk. However, bands will meander, with the potential to impact the cities of Buffalo and Watertown at times. The WSW flow will diminish the risk for heavy snow for counties immediately south of Lake Ontario, including the Rochester area.

HWD just issued from KBUF .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Periods of significant lake effect snow will be possible Friday night and Saturday, and again Sunday night and Monday.

Come chasing Dave. Delta is going you guys can carpool to my house.

I don't think that is the main driver of wind direction. There is shortwave heading down from arctic that will redirect the winds later next week. It shows up well on GFS and GEM

Euro is terrible for LES. Don't use simulated for LES, it rarely shows up.

Tossed.

Yeah 3-6' off Erie and Ontario

...HEAVY SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING... Snow will increase by mid afternoon and become heavy by late afternoon into early this evening. Snowfall rates after 3 PM over 1 inch per hour are expected. Since the heavy snow will occur from late afternoon into the early evening, expect a very slow evening commute in some areas. Give yourself extra time to reach your destination.

It does but not as long duration as that was. That lasted 10 days off the tug.

GEM

No more hot dogs needed wolf it's coming.

This is just through next Thursday 3-5'

Reminds me of the Jan 2014 event.

@Thinksnow18 Check out these temps for the 2nd event...this will freeze Erie pretty quickly. I actually think Erie is completely frozen by next weekend.

Lol Syracuse doesn't suck synoptically. It's literally the best city in New York for synoptic/LES combo. There is a reason they average more per year then any city in USA with 100k people.

GFS with a nice band through all of erie county. Well aligned flow, - 15 850s, fantastic moisture. I think we see back to back Lake effect snow warning events.

We have to cash in the next 2 weeks as the lake will 100% be frozen in 3 weeks time. That cold air coming means business. The 2nd event reminds me of Jan 2014 as the lake was freezing as the event unfolded. Totals were reduced due to this. That was the coldest LES storm I was ever in. There were constant blizzard conditions with wind chills in negative teens. I remember it was tough for me to walk in it for more then 5-10 minutes. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2013-2014&event=G

First look at RGEM.

Over 30" in the spots we talked about yesterday. NW NJ, NE PA, SE NY

Far too early for calls like that. Won't know details until later this week.

Looks like a LES event Friday Night into Sunday Morning, a moderate synoptic event Sunday Afternoon, and then round 2 of LES from Monday into Wednesday?

And more LES.

Not sure how accurate this is, but it has started with all those cold nights.