BuffaloWeather

Well this is a change. CPC actually has colder then normal temps for all of February! Feels like forever since I made a thread with below normal forecasted temps. Looks like after this snowstorm we get a little cutter and some cold arctic air behind it which should set the stage for a long duration LES event. A nice -EPO setting up allows some really cold air to make it into our area. Thursday night into Friday, an area of low pressure will track northeast across the Central Great Lakes, occluding in the process. Precipitation will overspread the region as the area of low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes. First the warm front associated with the system will track northeast across the area through Friday morning, followed by the cold front for the late morning into the afternoon. Temperatures on Friday will be a bit warmer in the lower elevations, resulting in rain or a mix of rain and snow. The higher elevations should stay mostly snow for the day on Friday. As the cold front passing over the area, and cold air advection brings temps down, any remaining rain will change over to snow. Behind the passing cold front, 850H temps in the -10C to -15C range will help support the potential for a lake response off of both lakes. Potential lake enhanced and then lake effect would continue through most of Saturday. A wave of low pressure and trailing cold front will track across the area on Sunday, bringing a return to cold temperatures once again. Lake effect behind this passing system also looks possible with 850H temps dropping to -15C Sunday night, and cooling even more so from there.

Thread for snowstorm

Good luck Central/Eastern New Yorkers!

Only Rochester gets fake snow. Lake effect here is usually 1:15-1:20. You guys get the 1:30-50, we don't get that at my spot. Usually because our wind direction is W/SW and yours NW so colder temps usually with your LES.

It's not even far out anymore and has support. KBUF mentions it. It's coming. Lake has begun freezing process though. Still at 33 degrees, this is our last shot of the year.

GFS is beautiful. Feet of Lake effect snow this weekend into early next week.

Its looking real good Wolf. Lake Eries last Hurrah.

I feel pretty confident that February will be by far the snowiest month of the winter for all of Upstate. I'd get my 1 GME stock on it.

All models suck. Toss them all.

You never discount the most accurate model, especially EPS.

I'm on Quarantine orders the entire week. If the storm ends up being really big, I'll be chasing it somewhere. (If I get a negative test back) Have the entire week off paid.

I'll create 2 new threads tonight. One for storm and one for general discussion. Feb 1st is tomorrow, crazy.

This is the top analog as the storm starts. Blizzard of 1996 is now 2nd. Good luck central New Yorkers.

Temps are pretty marginal for LES/enhanced until Weds off Ontario.

So pretty much everyone at my work has covid and I have to quarantine until Feb 7th. Awaiting my test results. I have minor symptoms as well as my coworkers, my managers are getting worse.

Doesn't even make the Top 10 least snowiest list Least Snow-January 0.7 1933 2.5 1921 2.8 1890 3.4 1944 5.4 1989 6.1 1932 6.2 2013 6.9 1988 7.0 1913 7.1 2006

@wolfie09

That quote needs to go in my signature

It's been showing up for awhile, it's coming. One last hurrah for Erie. Nice 100" bomb over the tug.

Yep drops 4-5' over my spot. GEM joined the GFS finally.

Yeah GEM and GFS has pretty massive LES event.

It's not the best model for Synoptic systems, much better with LES. But the top analog is blizzard of 96, has potential.

I got some weenies for you Dave

You ain't kiddin

Here is good link for 18z Canadian https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html