BuffaloWeather

GEM keeps LES going into next weekend.

I'll create a separate thread for LES once the watches go up.

First event looks great on canadian https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

4 feet off erie 7 off ontario we take

Tuesday has the strongest band

GFS looks good for LES for both events.

RGEM looks fantastic

There are still some question marks. Dry air is the big one.

That would be perfect path for some big LES behind it. If you look over North Dakota that is where the next wave comes from for next LES event. The elongated trough axis with several waves moving along it early next week.

NAM showing nice band at hour 75, still way out there though. Need to get within 48 hours.

Pretty much this. Whereever it hits the hardest I'll be there chasing.

I think tomorrow afternoon if they go watches. If they go advisorys then Thursday morning.

Has been snowing pretty good here too. Has to be around 2" new last few hours. Really fine small flakes.

They're going to have to add Buffalo to WWA. A really nice deep feeded band goes all the way up into canada right over airport.

We should have a good idea about first event by Thursday Evening runs and the next event by Saturday Night. Need to get the higher res within 2 days to get an idea of wind direction and even then subtle changes with shortwaves and arctic fronts could change things. I remember that 2007 event vividly as I lived in Cheektowaga and my friends all lived in East Eden and they got stuck at our house for a few days as conditions were so bad down here. That band went much farther north then originally anticipated and hit West Seneca pretty bad.

I don't watch the local news stations, so no idea how they've been.

Lake enhancement and borderline LES right now showing up on meso. Check the circle and check the radar sig

Look at those lower heights south of Hudson Bay. Perfect cyclonic flow. It retrogrades west and makes the flow more SW on Tuesday

The band looks to drop south on Monday on GFS, but intensifies and lifts north with another shortwave that moves through. 2nd event features the best conditions aloft but a fight against building ice coverage. First event won't have to worry about ice at all.

Chase worthy stuff, or just hold off until this weekend here?

They may just keep the warning running until Wednesday. Bands will be moving around

Buy and hold, never sell.

The GFS never stops the LES, but the southern storm actually enhances it NE of the lakes. Just total weenie run incoming

That's some really cold air.

Wow you got way more than Syracuse and you're so close? I think Syr got a few inches?