BuffaloWeather

In terms of confidence with this 1st event I'm at like a 2 out of 5. Has bust potential. Winds/Dry air/Location of bands forecasted...That's the beauty of LES, this is a now cast storm.

It all depends on where that low tracks. It's going to be a now casting event. The latest GFS has a WSW flow compared to the other short range models. Literally 20 miles north or south of that low dictates where the snow band goes...

The 6z GFS had round 2 of LES across southtowns and ski country. Some 4' totals.

You can chase any event here in WNY. There are citys/towns everywhere. Tug is different story. Most of the big dogs off tug are in the middle of no where. Off Erie is almost always hits a town or city. As you said basically 2 cities to set up camp and hope it hits you. Watertown (SW wind), Pulaski (W/WNW wind) That is unless you become friends with Carol in North Redfield.

Definitely feel more confident off Ontario then Erie. That lake is toasty and doesn't freeze. However, chasing off Erie is much easier than Ontario.

FV3 GFS

Models are kind of all over. Even short range ones. Going to be a now cast event.

I'm doing much better. No episodes in 2 weeks. I'm almost completely off the meds already. It seems it really was the combination of caffeine overdose/alcohol mixture that sent my body into chaos for 2 weeks. I've started doing lots of yoga, meditating, drinking lots of water, and cut back on my caffeine a lot. I'll also never take pre workout ever again.

Tug you just got a foot of snow and have 20" on the ground. You won't jackpot every event...

I think the models are factoring in icing of Erie into the equation.

GFS has much better moisture

RGEM looks better than NAM

That band looks like some dry air in it. It's like 3 miles wide, not what we want at all tbh.

NAM doesn't look that great.

Places in New York have been getting insane snowfall totals from synoptic systems. We've only had 2 LES events total here in WNY on the year. One in Dec and one In January. Binghamton had an event where places got 40-45" and then this last storm places in central NY got 30". We've been in the synoptic desert here in WNY. Central/Eastern NY is where its at this winter.

Np, but yes that picture was taken today. Should have some epic snowmobile conditions next 2 weeks up in Michigan!

Better than here, 2.2" for 3 day total. The ratios were pretty low at KBUF last 2 days. 1:10 for that fluff last night? less then 1:10 for the 2nd. 1.4" on .19 QPF. Feb 1st- 0.11 1.1" Feb 2nd- 0.19 1.4"

GSB Update GSB Cities The 2020 - 2021 Snow Season Normal Average to Date This Time Last Season Normal Seasons Average All Time Season Snowfall Record Binghamton 75.5 48.1 43.3 83.4 135.2 inches (2016 - 2017) Albany 46.2 35.6 35.6 60.2 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971) Buffalo 45.2 63.0 44.2 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977) Syracuse 43.6 78.6 46.8 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993) Rochester 34.1 59.1 63.1 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960)

Lakes are completely open for business.

Must have been some mesoscale banding there? 10" difference in a few miles from that map.

In December Binghamton area had several reports of 40-45" from the snowstorm around mid month.

KBUF for round 1