BuffaloWeather

RGEM looks better than NAM

That band looks like some dry air in it. It's like 3 miles wide, not what we want at all tbh.

NAM doesn't look that great.

Places in New York have been getting insane snowfall totals from synoptic systems. We've only had 2 LES events total here in WNY on the year. One in Dec and one In January. Binghamton had an event where places got 40-45" and then this last storm places in central NY got 30". We've been in the synoptic desert here in WNY. Central/Eastern NY is where its at this winter.

Np, but yes that picture was taken today. Should have some epic snowmobile conditions next 2 weeks up in Michigan!

Better than here, 2.2" for 3 day total. The ratios were pretty low at KBUF last 2 days. 1:10 for that fluff last night? less then 1:10 for the 2nd. 1.4" on .19 QPF. Feb 1st- 0.11 1.1" Feb 2nd- 0.19 1.4"

GSB Update GSB Cities The 2020 - 2021 Snow Season Normal Average to Date This Time Last Season Normal Seasons Average All Time Season Snowfall Record Binghamton 75.5 48.1 43.3 83.4 135.2 inches (2016 - 2017) Albany 46.2 35.6 35.6 60.2 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971) Buffalo 45.2 63.0 44.2 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977) Syracuse 43.6 78.6 46.8 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993) Rochester 34.1 59.1 63.1 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960)

Lakes are completely open for business.

Must have been some mesoscale banding there? 10" difference in a few miles from that map.

In December Binghamton area had several reports of 40-45" from the snowstorm around mid month.

KBUF for round 1

KBUF going big

Some 38 degree water temps still

Yeah Erie is at 33 degrees still some places are still at 38 degrees. Very rare. I think 2 weeks from now we will be looking at 80% ice on Erie.

Lake Erie being wide open in February is extremely rare. Only a little bit of ice near Cleveland. Should have about 2 weeks or so of open waters as that cold air means business.

Too far out but NAM takes perfect track for a nice round 2 event behind it along with a few inches of snow. Look at that cold air coming in behind it.

I really wish they would seperate Lake effect snow watches/warnings from winter storm watches/warnings. They are inherently quite different, especially around here with one place getting a few feet while others get a few inches. I don't understand why they changed something that was working. The 1st event starts Friday Night, so figured all watches should be up by now.

Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 22. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 23. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. Areas of blowing snow before 1am. Breezy.

Yeah I think this first event is a KBUF special. We will get hit here but not as much. I'm off all week so might set up shop at my dads house.

I like how they said starting point is a foot. The potential is sky high with this if we can get a strong band going.

Enough hot dogs Thinksnow. I've been calling this event 7 days ago.

Heading into Friday night, 850mb temperatures will drop into the mid negative teens which will fully support lake induced instability with lake equilibrium levels over 7kft. Meanwhile, ample moisture will be added to the area through the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough. This combination and fact that all the lake convective layer is in the DGZ, will support a period of heavy lake effect snows northeast of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Friday night through Saturday evening. In addition to the snow, a well mixed blyr is present as cold air advection occurs. Net result, strong and gusty winds. Forecast soundings indicate at least sustained 20-25 mph with gusts at least over 30 mph. In the heart of the strongest lake convection, think these numbers end up to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. That spells trouble as temps will be dropping into the lower 20s or even upper teens and thus blowing and drifting snow will be MUCH more of an issue than we saw with the last Metro Buffalo lake snow event the day after Christmas. The strong winds may hold down total snow amounts (higher winds crush the dendrites and lower the SLRs other than what would be given the thermal profile shown), but for now have starting point of over a foot in many areas within the lake plumes off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Bullseye at least right now would be Buffalo Metro off Lake Erie and Watertown/Fort Drum off Lake Ontario. Winter storm watches have been issued for this potential high impact event in terms of snow and wind. Lake snows will diminish on Saturday night as first leading stronger shortwave exits east. General synoptic snow will begin to spread into western NY after midnight, but winds will shift enough to prohibit lake enhancement as the wave arrives. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The core of arctic air will drop across western portions of the Ontario province on Sunday. As its associated trough axis dives across the Great Lakes, a surface low will pass to our south, with some model disagreement on its track and strength. This could bring a light general snow on Sunday, but in its wake it definitely will be colder heading into next week. GFS/GGEM both drop 850mb temperatures to around -25C, with the `warmer` ECMWF down to around -19 C. This will support highs in the teens for Monday and Tuesday, and even that may be optimistic in some areas if the colder guidance verifies. Bitterly cold wind chills can also be expected. In addition to the cold, this will establish a pattern favorable for lake effect snow. Wind direction and moisture will be key, and it remains too far out to pin down the details. In general, a prevailing WSW flow will place the traditional snow belts east of the lakes at the greatest risk. Does seem at least initially early next week, better focus for the lake effect may be just south of where the weekend event is expected to occur. However, bands will meander, with the potential to impact the cities of Buffalo and Watertown at times. Overall, this WSW flow will diminish the risk for heavy snow for counties immediately south of Lake Ontario, including the Rochester area. Though if winds are strong enough at least advisory level snows could reach into western portions of Monroe county.

This is through Sat. Morning