BuffaloWeather

Not really. It impacts Erie as the lake freezes. The dendrites are sometimes smaller and don't accumulate as quickly. But there have been many single digit LES Events. This one I remember vividly. 22" here for the event and 60" max off Tug. The frigid airmass, with 850mb temperatures of 25 to 30 C below, charged across the Northern Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley during the weekend leading up to the event. Climatologically, this set the stage for a significant lake effect snow event. The largest lake snows in the Buffalo metro area typically occur when the cold air lifts out of the Ohio Valley and up the full axis of Lake Erie, rather than taking a direct route from the Upper Great Lakes or Southern Ontario. The slow track of the upper level vortex and its associated surface low were also recognized as key elements to portend a crippling snowfall. This pattern recognition played a huge role in forecasting this event. Lake effect snow watches were issued three full days ahead of the event with lake effect snow warnings issued over 30 hours before significant snows accumulated. As the event unfolded, blizzard warnings were issued in the Buffalo Metro area for the first time since 1993. The likelihood of blizzard conditions and snowfall amounts of 5 to 6 feet (for the Tug Hill) were discussed in the Area Forecast Discussion and with various radio media outlets days before the event.

I'll take 40" who do I pay?

Whats with all the snow over the water lol

Light snow and wind has started here. Just gassed up my car for the chase tonight. Lets go Boys!

If the PV is that close there will be unmodeled shortwaves moving through changing the flow. Can almost guarantee it. Need to get short range models into play. It's a great look. But Lake Erie will be completely frozen in 2 weeks time.

Nov 2000 the forecast was for 6-12" if I remember correctly and we got 25". You never know with now cast LES events.

Some places still going big, always a chance. Looks fantastic off of Michigan.

In Nov 2014 we had 40 mph wind gusts that didn't disrupt the band. But usually high winds are a recipe for disaster for strong LES events.

3KM looks like a double band structure

12Z Models RGEM

Most had it starting very far north

One of the best nights skiing in awhile. No wind, temp around 32, perfect lines.

Perfect conditions here tonight! I love winter.

There is a lot going against this event. Lake temps are marginal, winds are very strong and changing, moisture is good for a limited time, and its a short time frame that LES can be produced. Friday-Sat. afternoon.

Probably not, but nearly all models have showed it last 12 hours. As I've already said now casting event. Band likely starts north of Buffalo and drops south into city/southtowns.

NAM seems to have a more WSW component to the winds then previous runs.

Picture of the lake today

Sounds about right, won't be a blockbuster event. Lots of issues to deal with.

The Euro is weird. It gets the cold air here, but amplifies the SE ridge. Not sure I agree with it.

Yeah, it really was a fantastic storm. That retrograding band was fun to watch.

Enjoy the sun and get the vitamin D. Going to be awhile before we see it again.

GEM

Not sure if RGEM was posted