JenkinsJinkies

BWI: 0.3” DCA: 0.3” IAD: 0.7” RIC: 0.1” SBY: 0.2” Precip won’t be the issue, timing it with cold will.

If this warmup stops short of 80 then I think we’re done with 80s for the year.

Unless there’s another can kick I’m expecting a wet season. But I’m skeptical of a big snow.

I’ve seen talk of it in the ENSO forum and from Eric Webber that 97-98 is very much on the table. Expect to see my name near the top of the snowfall contest spreadsheet.

Out to lunch

Yet everyone calls me crazy when I point that out.

That raises the question, if this fails to deliver then is this dry stretch since 2023 the new normal?

Okay, We have been in an overarching dry pattern since 2023 with only brief periods of respite regardless of ENSO state. This year in particular there is a deficit throughout the region, with DCA having one of over 6 inches. That's in spite of the precip events over the last couple months which have since ceased. This is why I'm harping on the pattern change being can kicked, while the growing season may be over this is still a vital window to build up the groundwater and refill the reservoirs. Need I remind you that the Baltimore metro water supply has to dip into the Susquehanna for the fact that Loch Raven is too low. Deficits carry over too and if we look at where things stand since 2023 the long term deficit is as high as 20 inches in some spots. We're going to need as much precip as we can get over the next 6 months or we could very well be right back in a widespread drought come Summer, especially if the forecasts of next year being a niña come to pass. The more the niño kicking in gets pushed back the less likely we are to fully turn the corner on the drought. Care to disagree?

First the niño precip was supposed to kick in during late summer then it was Labor Day then it was the equinox then it was late October, now it’s been can kicked to some indeterminate time in November. A couple head fakes occurred in that interval, the most recent one wrapped up a week ago. When is it going to be our turn for a sustained wet pattern with no rug pulls, the stars shouldn’t have to align for our area to get precip…

Yet another head fake…November better not yield another can kick.

I hear the flood gates open in November.

Let's see the reservoirs are low enough that susquehanna water has to be mixed into the supply. DCA is still at a ~6" YTD deficit. We're going to need every drop we can get in order to recharge the ground water or else we'll be in trouble in 6 months. The fact that we avoided real water restrictions this year is nothing short of a miracle.

It gets cancelled out if there’s multiple weeks of next to nothing following it. Remember what happened after late May?

So the wet pattern got can kicked again…