JenkinsJinkies

That raises the question, if this fails to deliver then is this dry stretch since 2023 the new normal?

Okay, We have been in an overarching dry pattern since 2023 with only brief periods of respite regardless of ENSO state. This year in particular there is a deficit throughout the region, with DCA having one of over 6 inches. That's in spite of the precip events over the last couple months which have since ceased. This is why I'm harping on the pattern change being can kicked, while the growing season may be over this is still a vital window to build up the groundwater and refill the reservoirs. Need I remind you that the Baltimore metro water supply has to dip into the Susquehanna for the fact that Loch Raven is too low. Deficits carry over too and if we look at where things stand since 2023 the long term deficit is as high as 20 inches in some spots. We're going to need as much precip as we can get over the next 6 months or we could very well be right back in a widespread drought come Summer, especially if the forecasts of next year being a niña come to pass. The more the niño kicking in gets pushed back the less likely we are to fully turn the corner on the drought. Care to disagree?

First the niño precip was supposed to kick in during late summer then it was Labor Day then it was the equinox then it was late October, now it’s been can kicked to some indeterminate time in November. A couple head fakes occurred in that interval, the most recent one wrapped up a week ago. When is it going to be our turn for a sustained wet pattern with no rug pulls, the stars shouldn’t have to align for our area to get precip…

Yet another head fake…November better not yield another can kick.

I hear the flood gates open in November.

Let's see the reservoirs are low enough that susquehanna water has to be mixed into the supply. DCA is still at a ~6" YTD deficit. We're going to need every drop we can get in order to recharge the ground water or else we'll be in trouble in 6 months. The fact that we avoided real water restrictions this year is nothing short of a miracle.

It gets cancelled out if there’s multiple weeks of next to nothing following it. Remember what happened after late May?

So the wet pattern got can kicked again…

I wonder how much butthurt would there be on here if it verifies and coal country gets a head start with measurable snow this year?

Will there be a second wind to this torch or will it be more of a muted warmup after the cold snap?

With a snow map you can reasonably chalk a localized snow hole to the urban heat island, but I always wonder what causes the localized DC rain hole?

Would you take the over or under for at least one 80 degree day in November?

Which is it's experimental forecast

I think it stuck because it transitioned into a nor’easter while it was over us.

I never want to hear anyone say this is an “interesting weather free zone” ever again.