The Waterboy

My very uneducated opinion is that the details of the HRRR aren’t extremely reliable when looking at minute details. As you pointed out, if you look back a few hours the details seem to vary widely at times. I like to see the strong def band back in NW TX on the 16z even though parts ok OK aren’t filled in. I think it’s a better look than the 12z. Again, just my 2 cents.

I think here in NWAR we may see at least a couple of hours of fz rain (minimal) and sleet before the transition to snow. This continues to cut down on snow totals. Canadian has Benton County at 30 degrees at hour 24 and down to 26 at hour 30. The precip maps show rain at 24 and mix at 30. Sleet at 26 degrees is certainly possible but hopefully we get a transition to snow. As usual with complex situations like this, someone will over perform whiles others lose out (more sleet). Let the games begin!

The track of the NAM still looks good (and better than some previous runs) Not as juiced as we’d like to see, but not terrible. I’m ready to get to tomorrow morning so we can start tracking it real time on the radar.

Any update from the 18z Euro?

I’m hoping for 1-2” and expecting to be disappointed. Best chance we’ve had in years though so we’ll see.

Is there any point in paying attention to the WRF models under the Mesoscale tab on Tropical Tidbits?

Let’s see what the ICON shows next. Nothing is off the table yet.

NWS Springfield - Obviously they didn’t have the 18z data to consider. The next phase of this system will then begin to impact the area late Friday night and Saturday morning. That main upper level trough will eject right over the Missouri Ozarks with low level cold advection rapidly overspreading the area. It should be noted that models and ensembles are still showing a large range of solutions regarding the track and structure of the upper level wave and system as a whole. Thus, confidence is still rather low regarding potential snow and ice amounts. With this being said, current expectations are for a rather quick changeover from rain to snow from northwest to southeast across much of the region from late Friday night into Saturday morning. We could see a one to three hour window of a wintry mix (including freezing rain). Otherwise, we are mainly expecting snow to be the dominant wintry precipitation type before precipitation tapers off Saturday afternoon or early evening. The greatest potential for 2"+ of snow will generally occur north of the I-44 corridor with the best chances near and north of the Highway 54 corridor. A thin glaze of ice will also be possible generally near and north of the I-44 corridor. We will get a better feel for accumulations starting Thursday as this system will finally come onshore tonight.

Hammering NW AR @72. I like it!!!

StormChazer, how did the Euro ENS look? Do they mainly support the OP’s NW shift?

Agree totally. Pretty safe if we were betting on the outcome we all would side with Lucy. It’s so difficult to get everything to line up perfectly. It feels like there’s a giant left turn sign between Fort Smith and Little Rock. A majority of these get sooooo close and turn NW just a bit too soon. Time will tell if we can finally end the drought or if we’ve all wasted another week of our lives watching for nothing.... I do keep asking myself why I put myself through this.

I think we all agree that leaning towards the Euro is always the best bet this far out. This time the Euro happens to be in our favor. Let’s hope the 12z Euro stays the course.

Very true. It’s on the agenda to head up to Estes Park one day. RMNP is amazing!

Denver, Fort Collins, Greeley.

I’m headed to your area to see some family right after Christmas. I’m hoping there’s a storm during that time!

It will be interesting to see if any of us get some flakes from the secondary wave early this afternoon. Looks like a sharp cutoff to the south so we’ll see. I’ll go on a limb and say JoMo gets a 1/2 inch or more.

Interesting trend. Most of us still need the southern trend to continue some more.

Canadian is further north too.

I like that rational.

18z GFS with the swing and a miss.

Agreed. I was being a bit generic. I-44 and north seems to be the best bet right now. Maybe some counties in NE OK could squeak about warning criteria so we can get that monkey off our backs.

Looks to me like the current “consensus” is for Southern MO to have the best chances as it stands. Obviously a LONG way to go. GFS tucking south is a good sign. We’ll see what the Canadian and Euro has to stay. Bottom line is nothing is off the table yet. Edit: As you all just pointed out, nice trend on the Canadian but still what I call an I-44 special.

Canadian still doesn’t look too bad. Definitely more in line with the Euro.

None of us are surprised with the major difference between the GFS and the Euro. Southern end of measurable snow is Fayetteville on the Euro and Kansas City on the GFS. Only 250 mile difference. And the Canadian splits the uprights. I think we all agree to lean towards the Euro even if it wasn’t currently in our favor.

That much fz rain in Dallas would be devastating. Half that is major impacts. Definitely don’t need that right before Christmas.