The Waterboy

This is our last chance this season. We at least need a late 4th quarter field goal to keep from getting shut out. I’d rather lose 56-3 than 56-0.

Amber, Congrats on the Master’s degree. That’s a huge accomplishment!!! I’ll complete the survey and would love to read your final capstone upon completion.

00Z NAM is colder than previous runs FWIW.

Based on NWS Tulsa’s disco this afternoon those maps are errors. They are going with the Euro.

It’s snowing in Bentonville per the radar yet absolutely nothing is happening outside. Dry air I guess???

I was adding up all of the dustings over the last 3+ years! Lol

Maybe we’ll get our 8th dusting in a row tonight. Yippee!!!!

Merry Christmas!!!

I just saw that too!!! Only 384 hours to go.

I wonder how many counties in the WWA from NWS Tulsa saw absolutely nothing today?

The HRRR still continues to show a band of snow from Lawton to OKC to just south of Tulsa to Fayetteville. A tick further north and NWWhiteout and I may see a bit here in Benton Co. The 18z next hour will give us a better idea. The last 6-8 hours of runs have improved.

I’m really more pissed at myself for the following: 1. Looking at any computer model more than 48 hours out. And 48 hours is still being generous. 2. Giving the NAM any credibility. We knew the insane totals were too high but it was awful with the eventual track. 3. The GFS sucked for us but assuming NC hits the jackpot it will have been accurate for them at a much longer lead time. 4. With all that being said I still agree with OUamber. Screw the GFS. It gets no apology for being right. 5. Loving winter weather in the south sucks and is maddening. Looks like our snow drought continues. At least we can restart the clock on # of days since a WSW has been issued for our area. #silverlining 6. At least we’re all miserable together today. It was supposed to be a great Friday.

12z HRRR gives some of us a glimmer of hope. But only for NE OK from about Tulsa South up through NW AR. It’s significant improvement over the 06z. Who knows...

JoMo, Do you have access to the 18z Euro that they are mentioning In the TN and SE forum?

3k NAM at 18z wasn’t bad.

Looks like the HRRR runs to 18 hours except at 00, 06, 12, and 18z when it runs to 36 hours.

Do we know the answer to this question yet?

Each model run seems to be getting progressively more concerning. At what point do we panic? Most of us have already invested a week into tracking this. If it falls apart now... We’ll, let’s not even go there yet.

Yep. I’m taking a camera screenshot of it which is probably the issue. Maybe there’s a better way.

NWS Tulsa updated their snowfall graphic. For some reason I can’t upload it due to the 1.95mb max.

Gotta love the NAM. Some places get to 3-5 “inches” in a 3 hour period. In the very NW corner of AR I go from 12 to 17 between hours 81 to 84.

Here’s another odd thing about that GFS run regarding the high pressure to our north. Someone smarter than me can give their thoughts. If you look frame by frame the placement is as follows: 60 - SW Iowa 66 - East IL - slight shift east from hr 60 72 - Western OH - shift east again 84 - Just west of Chicago - HUH??? Shifted back west 300+ miles. I don’t think so, Tim. 90 - On top of Pittsburgh, PA Maybe it’s nothing but hour 84 can’t be correct. I would think we would prefer the high not to kick east too far too fast. The NAM bounces it around Iowa and Wisconsin through 84.

18z FV3 was a train wreck.

NWS Tulsa takes the easy road for now. Can’t say I blame them: .DISCUSSION... The most impactful portion of this forecast package occurs on Friday and Saturday as the potential for wintry weather continues. Before we get the winter weather potential, the area will experience a mostly sunny day on Wednesday with warmer temperatures as the surface high pressure system over the area Today shifts to the southeast. Even with the warmer temperatures, readings will be at or below seasonal normals. On Thursday, we will see a cold front move through the region with precipitation developing in the vicinity of the boundary. The precipitation will continue Friday north of the frontal boundary with strong isentropic lift in place across the region. The type of precipitation on Friday will be mostly rain with a wintry mix possible on the northern edge of the precipitation shield. More of a wintry mix is expected Friday Night into Saturday as an upper level low moves out of northern Mexico and across the Southern Plains. The precipitation is expected to transition to mostly snow as we move through Saturday Night as the upper level low moves over the area and off to the east. The precipitation is expected to come to an end by Sunday Morning. With that said, it is still way too early to focus on exact precipitation types and amounts as the upper level low that will drive what is expected to happen is still out over the Pacific Ocean. The forecast will continue to be refined over the next couple of days.

Are you agreeing with his post that the GFS is unrealistic or saying that temps typically warm at the surface in this type of setup? Just wanted to clarify. I think it’s the former. Sometimes the WAA wins over but that’s usually with more southerly winds. The high up north hopefully keeps that at bay.