The Waterboy

12z CMC is interesting...

Merry Christmas all!!!

Congrats from NW Arkansas on a white Christmas!!!! Super happy for you guys out East.

3 ft in western OK! LOL.

00z GEM went absolutely nuts with the 29-31st storm. 15” for me and still snowing at H240. Laughable scenario but fun to look at.

There was a comment in one of the other forums about the 12z NAM bringing the storm onshore further south into Central CA. Not sure if that matters any at this point but worth noting. It seems like there are still a handful of different possible scenarios on the table. Would like to see the 12zEuro continue its trend from 00z.

Looks like our chances for a Christmas miracle are slim and dwindling. 18z GFS does have a nice storm on the 30th.

Nothing super exciting on the 12z Euro. It’s back to showing cold on the 24th and 25th but pushes to the east pretty quickly. No precip to speak of at all.

Looking at the 12z runs the NAM is a bit drier and the GFS/CMC ‘slightly’ better. That’s probably grasping at straws though. The changes weren’t substantial regardless. But still have 12-18 hours to go. Also sounds like some precip may be virga due to very dry air initially.

Not sure if it matters but the 00z NAM look slightly more interesting for Tuesday. Still nothing too exciting but maybe a trend in the right direction? Edit: The 3km NAM still looks like crap.

7 inches for me in North Bentonville. I was definitely in a sweet spot. Had multiple hours of moderate/heavy snow. Definitely a great Pre-Christmas gift.

3-4 inches in north Bentonville. Still coming down with large flakes. Edit: Just measured 5 to 5 1/2 IMBY.

Sleet transitioning to snow in NWA now.

I’m in Bentonville. I would love to be in the sweet spot for once!

Yep, one of the TV’s mets last night had accumulations of a dusting to 5 inches. They typically don’t want to predict accumulation totals until it’s literally falling from the sky. All I care about is that we end the 7 year drought.

00Z HRRR looks good for OK through AR. Amounts taper off in SW MO.

Is anybody really watching tomorrow night or are we all numb and ready for Spring?

12z GFS and Canadian showing a bit of snow next Tues/Wed. Temps look marginal. Nothing to be excited about but something to watch nonetheless.

I agree with you guys that the Benton County warning was a major head scratcher. Especially for 3-5 inches. Even if that was just for extreme western sections because that didn’t even happen. Very odd for sure. Radar and actual temps at 33-34 should have been a big clue.

Dare I even bother to say the 18z HRRR looks ok for tonight. Maybe a dusting to an inch. Maybe. Probably not. Maybe. Naw, won’t happen. But what if...

Oh man, we’re done. Our only hope to eek out anything is the puny wave in TX that comes in late tonight. Probably won’t amount to much but some mood flakes. We sat at 33-34 all morning during very heavy precip. That sucks. Doinked the game winner off the left upright.

Tulsa just issued a warning for Benton Co for 3-5 inches. Benton-Cherokee-Muskogee-McIntosh- Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Tahlequah, Muskogee, and Checotah 919 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT... * WHAT...Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. Snow may be heavy at times late this morning and into the early afternoon. This will occur mainly in the western sections of Benton, Cherokee, Muskogee, and McIntosh counties.

Sigh... Someone remind me again why we put all this effort into this stupid hobby.

HRRR continues to look solid. And nothing like the GFS.

Tulsa going with an advisory (Not a warning) for those of us that were in a watch. Perfect timing MUWX!