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The Waterboy

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  1. The Waterboy
    This is just through 150. More falls after that. I’m sure you’ll repost the update once it finishing running.
  2. The Waterboy
    And the Canadian explodes for the Wed/Thurs system. Wow!!!
  3. The Waterboy
    In my opinion things still look good for all of us. The GFS has been the most consistent run to run by far and the V16 is still a crush for all. The Canadian is all over the place but at least it has the Mon/Tues storm now. Even the NAM at 78-84 (Ha!!!) even took a step in the right direction. That’s all the optimism I have for now!
  4. The Waterboy
    Pivotal Weather
  5. The Waterboy
    GFSv16 still looks solid for Sat/Sun
  6. The Waterboy
    I heard this on the news at 6. I was in Springdale for a high school basketball game until about 5:45. It was only drizzle then so I must have just missed it.
  7. The Waterboy
    500mb on the Canadian is definitely an improvement towards the GFS. Very similar through 96 then it starts to differ. I’d call it a step in the right direction especially when comparing the Canadian12z vs the 00z. 00z with wave near San Diego 12z in AZ.
  8. The Waterboy
    GFS out to 96 isn’t backing down on the cold. We’ll see shortly if the weekend storm is still there.
  9. The Waterboy
    Looks like the front cuts just north of you and those of us in NW AR. The shallow cold air always has such a hard time pushing over the mountains so we’ll stay between 30-34ish while others a few miles north are in the 20’s. Per the HRRR, Bentonville isn’t below 32 for 12 more hours.
  10. The Waterboy
    I don’t disagree. Way too early to get too excited.
  11. The Waterboy
    I wonder if GFS temps are too “warm” if we have that kind of snowpack. Even with half that amount of snow on the ground. Will be interesting to see what NWS and local mets start saying.
  12. The Waterboy
    Yep. And another wave right behind it. It’s going to be a fun week of model watching.
  13. The Waterboy
    12z GFS for the win!
  14. The Waterboy
    The temps on the 12z GFS are ABSOLUTELY INSANE starting next Friday. Multiple days that don’t get out of single digits.
  15. The Waterboy
    Is it just me or does it feel like every model run keeps the big storm at 100+ hours out? The Tuesday wave doesn’t look like it will amount to too much. Patience seems to be the name of the game.
  16. The Waterboy
    00 NAM nowhere near what the 18z run was.
  17. The Waterboy
    Still significant differences between models for Sat/Sun. GFS and CMC still holding steady. Icon, NAM, HRRR, and other short range still say no. The WRF-NMM is amped but I don’t know how reliable it is (probably isn’t).
  18. The Waterboy
    Gfs seems to be the outlier right now. The 12z V16 looked great. Not really any support from any others though. Odd for only 60 hours out. Not even the Canadian was similar. Let’s ride it for now and hope the Euro has it.
  19. The Waterboy
    GFS and 12z NAM still showing this.
  20. The Waterboy
    Every year when we start to hear rumors of sudden strat warming I tell myself winter is over. It almost never works out right. Maybe I only remember when they bust but that seems to be the way more common outcome.
  21. The Waterboy
    Anyone have any interesting insight regarding the next wave by late in the week? It digs down the west coast to the Baja Peninsula and then spins pretty much stationary for 24+ hours before it ejects. Very intriguing. Multiple model runs seem to support it. When, where, and how to wave ejects will determine if we see any winter precip by next weekend.
  22. The Waterboy
    Ending with about a dusting. Impressive winds today too. Not often we see snow with winds that strong. Fun to watch out the window while working even if it didn’t amount to much. Snowed pretty much all day.
  23. The Waterboy
    NWS Little Rock said 7 inches fell but didn’t say where.
  24. The Waterboy
    Looks like the next storm misses us to the south (congrats Dallas?) and then boring after that. The Sunday storm comes onshore tomorrow. Will be interesting to see what happens with the models but pretty solid consensus it will be south of us.
  25. The Waterboy
    Had a slight dusting here in Bentonville. Enough to turn the grass and rooftops white.
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