The Waterboy

Anyone have the WeatherBell 3km map? I want to compare it to Pivotal.

V16

^That’s an I-44 hammer! Awesome to see the models increasing again. Definitely been sampled by now so hopefully all future runs continue this way. Suck on that, Lucy!!!

Euro looks similar to the NAM which isn’t a great look. Takes the heaviest precip way south. Big hit for Central/Eastern AR. I guess the first wave is solid for OK. NWA is in a bit of a snow hole similar to the NAM. Still drops decent totals area wide.

One more. 03z RAP. Again, not too shabby.

Canadian is OK. 0.25 to 0.50 QPF’s.

Got it!!!! User error on my part. I was holding the picture not the white area.

00z Icon through storm 1. Both storms ^

Thanks! Are you copying those on a laptop or your phone?

V16 looks way better again. Can’t post the map for some reason. QPF slightly higher than “regular” GFS run. The few locations I spot checked have about 0.1 QPF more on the V16. Is the NWS moving to the new version very soon? Personally I would prefer to use that regardless of what it’s showing.

I8z Icon out to 120 with both storms.

18z ICON through storm 1. Not sure if this is 10:1 ratios or Kuchera.

I wasn’t suggesting this will happen. Just pointing out that the models haven’t tanked completely.

21z RAP goes out to 51 and looks solid. And is almost identical to the GFS at hr54. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2021021221&fh=51&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

Guys (and gals), We still are in play for 6-12+ for almost everybody in 2 storms. Yes, lots of room for error. We aren’t getting shutout though. Here’s some reassurance from the v16... https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_para&p=snku_acc&rh=2021021218&fh=216&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=

V16 held steady minus the hole over NWA.

We haven’t really discussed the typically NW shift that often occurs 24-48 hours out. We’re right in that timeframe now. I know you KC folks want to see that! Thoughts anyone? Like many of you, I’m nervous since we’ve been watching this for days (but it feels like weeks!) and the models had huge totals that are now trickling downward some. The chances of this being a swing and a miss are extremely low. The GFS has been steady. The Euro looked solid. Canadian moved our direction. No need to panic (I’m talking to myself) on one run of the NAM that still wasn’t a total train wreck. If things hold steady we’ll be getting excited by this time tomorrow. Now, where is my brown paper bag before I hyperventilate!

We need that a little more NW and we’re golden! is the break in the action between he 60-66ish odd? And feasible? It is the NAM after hour 60 so grain of salt.

For some reason I can screenshot from Pivotal on my phone. Not sure if it doesn’t allow it or it’s user error. Here’s the link though. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2021021218&fh=48&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=

JoMo, you see the 18z HRRR for you???

That works well for both of us!

It also had the same narrow band at hr 48 that the HRRR shows.

Looks like the 12z NAM will be better. And more in line with the GFS/Euro.

Light snow in Bentonville. Not sure if it’s a minor wave of some type or lake effect off of Beaver Lake???

That was an odd outcome on the NAM. I’ll take it for me personally but weird nonetheless.