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The Waterboy

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  1. The Waterboy
    Has anyone noticed the current radar? It’s already showing light showers in SW MO around Springfield and quite a bit in Eastern KS. The HRRR doesn’t show any precip for the next 8-10 hours. Thoughts?
  2. The Waterboy
    Meanwhile it drops 6-12 inches just south of you in NW AR. No way that could be accurate.
  3. The Waterboy
    03, 09, 15, 21z all run out to 51 hours. All other hours only to 21.
  4. The Waterboy
    15z RAP was ugly for SW MO and NW AR. Never gets below freezing during precip. Tulsa scores big. This could be the warm nose that Tulsa mentioned.
  5. The Waterboy
    JoMo will like the 12z NAM!!!
  6. The Waterboy
    Tulsa’s write-up overnight seems to favor the RAP which looks pretty good for most of us. 09z was a good run but surface temps still going to be iffy. They also mention the two things we hate to hear: warm nose and dry slot.
  7. The Waterboy
    For what it’s worth the 18z HRRR looks pretty good for SW MO, and NW AR. Not so good further west.
  8. The Waterboy
    12z NAM looks solid. Huge improvement over the past two runs.
  9. The Waterboy
    Holston, What is the link to this site? I’d like to see this earlier in the run for my area in AR. Thanks!
  10. The Waterboy
    I hate this hobby.
  11. The Waterboy
    The ICON wasn’t horrible.
  12. The Waterboy
    StormChazer, Do you have 18z Euro details? I saw hour 90 in another forum but it was already in Central Ark at that hour. Curious to see what 84 and before looks like.
  13. The Waterboy
    Let’s hope that trend doesn’t continue. We’re threading the needle as it is right now. Any shift East like this is bad news for most of us.
  14. The Waterboy
    Looks to me like the 2m temps at h84 are 3-4 degrees colder on the NAM/GFS vs the Canadian. Doesn’t matter by h90 as everyone is below freezing at that point. Not sure if that is a concern yet but NWA has 6-12 hours of precip above freezing (on the Canadian) before the changeover.
  15. The Waterboy
    Tulsa just got NAM’d…
  16. The Waterboy
    I was thinking about that earlier too. We don’t see too many dig south from Montana/North Dakota. Do you recall anything similar that actually panned out for us? I actually kind of like these clippers. They are typically faster moving with limited moisture but we can squeak out a couple of inches. This one seems to have more potential than usual.
  17. The Waterboy
    Tulsa NWS as well
  18. The Waterboy
    12z GFS solid for some of us. Still need a little more shift west for the Tulsa folks.
  19. The Waterboy
    That was very interesting! Maybe we have something to watch.
  20. The Waterboy
    Definitely frustrating to see a majority of the models have snow in Colorado/ Western KS for it to disappear as it approaches us and pop again into TN. The NAM is currently the only one giving us much of a chance. Maybe we score a dusting to an inch with the cold temps/higher ratios.
  21. The Waterboy
    18z GFS still looks good for the new year. Need a bit of a shift NW but plenty of time to worry about that later.
  22. The Waterboy
    00z GFS was a nice look for the 21st. Maybe a step in the right direction.
  23. The Waterboy
    10 years ago today was the Joplin tornado.
  24. The Waterboy
    Same here.
  25. The Waterboy
    Huge flakes in Bentonville for the last 2 hours. Absolutely nuts. Grass is completely covered. Measured 1 inch on an elevated plastic surface and that’s with a fair amount of melting. What a day.
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