The Waterboy

Meaning the current actual temp is 2-3 colder than what the HRRR shows?

Then I’ll take this one please!!!

18z NAM shifted NW a tad.

The HRRR and RAP continue to be a bit further SE from the SREF, NAM, and most others. This definitely feels like a thread-the-needle event as far as temps go. Everything else sets us perfectly. Dynamic cooing, wet bulb temp, precip rate, and time of day will make a lot of difference in any given location.

NWS Springfield had an excellent and thorough write-up overnight. It’s too much to post all of it here. But here are a couple of paragraphs that highlight the strength of the storm. This is a great setup for some of us to cash in on a big one (if temps cooperate). FROM NWS SPRINGFIELD: When comparing this system to the local heavy snow climatology, there continues to be several potential matches: Upper level jet structure would support strong lift for precipitation/potential snowfall. A pivot of the closed 500mb low near/just southeast of the area could lead to TROWAL development (currently this looks most likely across south central Missouri). The current mean 850mb low track from southwest to northeast through Arkansas is also favorable along with the aforementioned 700mb low track over the area. Night time snowfall accumulation is typically efficient, especially in any mesoscale/heavier bands. At this time surface temps appear to remain near freezing which would support a heavy, wet snow. Current snow to liquid ratios of 10-12: 1 are supported by most guidance with the colder SLR`s expected as the precip comes to an end Wednesday morning. CIPS historical analogs also highlight similarities with the setup of this system with past heavy snowfalls, including the 12/24/2002 and 1/31/1982 systems. Forecast trends over the last 24 hours: 1. Guidance has come in slightly higher with overall qpf amounts with anywhere from 0.75-1.00 total qpf with this system along and south of I-44. This is a significant amount of qpf to be dealing with a winter event. 2. A slight shift north in the overall track of the system (very subtle but important). 3. Given the increase in qpf, snowfall amounts in general have increased for areas along and south of I-44. Here are the latest NBM snow probs: >2 inch snow: 60-90% in the Winter Storm Watch area. >4 inch snow: 50-80% in the Winter Storm Watch area with highest probs along the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau. >6 inch snow: 40-60% in the Winter Storm Watch area with highest probs along the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau. >8 inch snow: 20-40% in the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau.

18z NAM looks solid and still snowing at hr84

Looks like the 12z GFS Ensembles were solid as well.

Any chance the current snow in Tulsa is lake effect off of Lake Oolagah? Kinda looks like that on radar.

This is probably more banter than anything but just saw this from NWS Cheyenne. Mentions a flash freeze and heavy burst of snow: 153 PM MST WED DEC 21 2022 Carbon County- The National Weather Service in Cheyenne has issued a * Snow Squall Warning for... Central Carbon County in south central Wyoming... * Until 245 PM MST. * At 151 PM MST, a dangerous snow squall was located 15 miles northeast of Creston Junction, or 22 miles northwest of Rawlins, moving east at 55 mph. HAZARD...Flash freeze on roads. Intense bursts of heavy snow and gusty winds leading to blowing snow and rapidly falling visibility. Wind gusts greater than 50 mph could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Travel will become difficult and potentially dangerous within minutes. This includes Interstate 80 near Rawlins and roadways north of Rawlins. Locations impacted include... Rawlins, Sinclair and Separation Lake.

If the uptick in the Globals turns out to come to fruition I’d give two thumbs up to the ICON who has held steady with that solution for the last few days.

I think we’re all too nervous! Regardless of the total amount of snow this storm will be crazy with the winds and temps. Will definitely be one to remember. My hope is that we are issued a blizzard warning. Pretty sure I’ve never been under one of those before in all my years. Keep the updates coming!!!

18z RGEM is slightly improved further south as well. We need that trend to continue. Right now I would say Wichita to Joplin look to be in decent shape. NW AR and Tulsa are borderline. Anything further south and west of that is suspect at best.

For what it’s worth (which may not be much) the ICON has continued to trend more in our favor over the last 5 runs. The 18z was actually pretty solid.

The CMC wasn’t terrible. It actually shifted SW a bit.

Agreed, especially for you in LR. That type of track could doom some to the dreaded dry slot.

I know we’re all going to laugh hysterically at what I’m about to say, but the 18z NAM at 84 looks juicy. Snow already breaking out across a lot of OK.

Welcome to the forum!!! Hopefully this one will be a nice “Welcome to the Midwest” for you.

12z GFS looks great! As JoMo said last night, the Kuchera looks solid and can’t be ruled out due to such cold temps. Now we need the Euro to continue to trend in our favor.

00z GFS looks like an unorganized hot mess.

I was texting with Dan Skoff about this exact thing yesterday. He thinks the deterministic runs struggle that far out with the details. Does anyone still have access to the ensembles? The system on the 23rd looks interesting. 12z GFS was more robust with the wave and explodes it just east of us in to the SE. Should be a fun ride.

00z GFS run has stupid cold on Christmas!!!! Brrrrr. That would be festive for sure.

Same here in Bentonville. Maybe an inch. Big flakes at times. Decent amount of melting along the way. Definitely unexpected for mid-November. Would have been probably 2-4” in mid-January. Hopefully this is a great sign for the rest of winter.

Decent sized flakes reported falling in Fayetteville with a dusting already on cars/elevated surfaces.

3 1/2” on a plastic table.

Decent mid-March snow here. Very heavy, wet flakes. Probably 1-1 1/2 inches so far in Bentonville/Bella Vista. Hard to say for sure with the sun angle/melting.